We’ll call this the Tyler Lockett column.
Today, we look at the players who consistently outperform or underperform their average draft positions in fantasy football. And nobody beats expectations more often than Lockett, who for the past five years has shattered his preseason ranking.
A look at Lockett’s average draft positions (ADP) and fantasy finishes in 0.5 PPR scoring over that span:
- WR42 ADP→ WR13 finish in 2022
- WR19 ADP→ WR13 finish in 2021
- WR18 ADP→ WR9 finish in 2020
- WR20 ADP→ WR14 finish in 2019
- WR57 ADP→ WR15 finish in 2018
And where is Lockett being drafted this season? You guessed it. Ridiculously low. He is currently the 28th wide receiver off the board, according to FantasyPros ADP data (0.5 PPR scoring). There’s plenty of logic to support the ranking: Lockett and DK Metcalf have dominated Seattle wide receiver targets (78% since 2020), but first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba will surely cut into their opportunities. Plus, Lockett is 30 years old and there are many impressive young receivers around the league expected to make jumps this season. The WR28 spot feels about right for Lockett. Let’s all look dumb again.
Before we get into the other players who consistently outperform – and underperform – their ADPs, one quick note: What Lockett has done is extremely rare. When a player has a surprisingly productive season, drafters and analysts usually correct (actually, overcorrect) the following year. Take Amari Cooper, who entered the 2021 season as the No. 16 wide receiver in ADP. Cooper finished as the WR27, which tanked his ranking the next season. Cooper came off the board as the WR29 in 2022, but turned in one of the better seasons of his career en route to a WR9 finish.
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And so it goes. We’re too high on a player one year, then too low the next. That is the norm in fantasy football. It’s random. Few players consistently outperform their ADPs. Lockett is the best example, and here are the others (then we’ll get into the perpetual underperformers).
Outperforming draft position
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
- RB22 ADP→ RB3 finish in 2022
- RB17 ADP→ RB14 finish in 2021
- RB10 ADP→ RB8 finish in 2020
- RB19 ADP→ RB18 finish in 2019
- 2023 ADP: RB9
The NFL’s leading rusher in 2022 has no weaknesses. He’s a phenomenal runner, catches passes, and has proven to be durable (he’s missed six games in four seasons). The only issue: He is currently away from the team as part of a contract dispute. The prediction here is that Jacobs reports soon and plays on the franchise tag. There is immense pressure for the Raiders to win in a potentially make-or-break year for head coach Josh McDaniels, so they’ll feed the ball plenty to Jacobs, arguably their best player. Another top 10 season is likely.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
- RB35 ADP→ RB7 finish in 2022
- RB43 ADP→ RB25 finish in 2021
- RB48 ADP→ RB41 finish in 2020
- 2023 ADP: RB8
Drafters did not put much stock in Pollard’s RB25 finish in 2021, selecting him as the RB35 in drafts a year ago. Now that Ezekiel Elliott is in New England, Pollard has ascended to top 10 status. He finished as the No. 7 running back this past season despite totaling just 232 touches, the fewest of any running back in the top 20. If he can get closer to 300 touches, he’ll have a chance to be the No. 1 overall running back. He’s that talented. If Dallas prefers to use him in tandem with a more traditional between-the-tackles back, Pollard must replicate his insane efficiency to justify his draft position.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
- QB15 ADP→ QB7 in 2022
- QB18 ADP→ QB11 in 2021
- QB22 ADP→ QB11 in 2020
- 2023 ADP: QB13
Cousins is the type of quarterback you want to pair with Anthony Richardson, whose erratic passing may lead to inconsistent stats. You know what you’re getting with Cousins. His current ADP is as high as it’s been since 2018, however, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him slightly underachieve relative to draft position.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
- QB27 ADP→ QB10 in 2022
- QB33 ADP→ QB24 in 2021
- QB18 ADP→ QB18 in 2020
- 2023 ADP: QB17
Drafters still are not fully buying Goff, the No. 10 quarterback from a year ago. He’s similar to Cousins – operates a good offense, has a relatively high floor, fringe starter if you want to wait on quarterback in a 12-team league.
Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions
- WR79 ADP→ WR57 in 2022
- WR52 ADP→ WR34 in 2021
- WR37 ADP→ WR17 in 2020
- WR39 ADP→ WR27 in 2019
- 2023 ADP: WR105
I hesitate to include Jones because he’ll minimally impact fantasy football this season…which is exactly what we’ve been saying for the past several years (no, seriously though, this is probably it for Jones).
Other notable overachievers
Green Bay running back Aaron Jones has met or outperformed his ADP in three of the past four seasons. This year, the 29-year-old Jones ranks as the RB17, his lowest pre-draft ranking since 2018…Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler has proven to be a draft day value in four of the past five years. Drafters have finally caught on, ranking Ekeler as the RB2 this season…Jacksonville wide receiver Christian Kirk has absolutely blown away his draft position the past two seasons.
- WR40 ADP→ WR11 in 2022
- WR77 ADP→ WR26 in 2021
The arrival of Calvin Ridley once again suppresses Kirk’s value, as he checks in at WR30. I suspect he’ll make it three straight years as a huge overachiever.
Miami running back Jeff Wilson also blasted past his ADP in two of the past three years.
- RB65 ADP→ RB29 in 2022
- Undrafted ADP→ RB30 in 2020
Wilson is in the mix to be Miami’s starter this year and can be drafted as the RB56.
There are several rising third-year pros such as Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, Miami’s Jaylen Waddle, and Philadelphia’s Devonta Smith who outperformed their draft positions in Years 1 and 2. The trend becomes unique if they can do it for another season.
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Underperforming ADP
I’ll try to make these non-obvious. In other words, I’m not going to discuss Kansas City running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who in retrospect was ranked wayyyy too high as a rookie, lost his starting job, and clearly has not lived up to expectations. Edwards-Helaire has not come within 10 spots of his draft position in any season.
Overall, it might be even rarer for a player to underperform his ADP in three consecutive seasons compared to outperforming. Once a player has a poor season, drafters usually overreact and bury him in the rankings. Here are a few we keep getting wrong:
Juju Smith-Schuster, WR, New England Patriots
- WR24 ADP→ WR29 in 2022
- WR32 ADP→ WR137 in 2021
- WR14 ADP→ WR18 in 2020
- WR6 ADP→ WR66 in 2019
- 2023 ADP: WR47
Call me nuts, but I like Smith-Schuster to finish higher than WR47 this season. He is the No. 1 target on a Patriots offense that features routes in Smith-Schuster’s wheelhouse – short, quick-hitters over the middle that allow for yards after the catch.
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
- QB10 ADP→ QB16 in 2022
- QB7 ADP→ QB16 in 2021
- QB4 ADP→ QB6 in 2020
- 2023 ADP: QB18
This is Wilson’s first year ranked outside the top 10 since 2014. His skills may be declining, but Sean Payton’s offense should boost him above his ADP.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, New England Patriots
- RB15 ADP→ RB19 in 2022
- RB5 ADP→ RB6 in 2021
- RB3 ADP→ RB11 in 2020
- 2023 ADP: RB51
Elliott’s draft position will rise after signing with the Patriots on Monday. Rhamondre Stevenson managers will not want to hear this, but you can pencil in Zeke for 6-7 rushing touchdowns this season.
Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon has underperformed his ADP in three of the past four seasons…Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers underperformed by 18 spots (RB25→ RB43) as a rookie and 13 spots (RB20→ RB33) this past year. Most of his 2021 season was lost due to an Achilles tear. Akers currently ranks as the RB22 and faces very little competition in the Rams backfield…Denver wide receiver Courtland Sutton failed to come within 10 spots of his ADP the past two seasons. His 2023 draft position has plummeted to WR44.
