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Patriots vs Cowboys preview
Both of these teams have some questions to ask themselves when they look in the mirror entering Week 4.
New England would not have been pleased to start the season 0-2. However, the fact that they slowed down the Super Bowl finalist Eagles (25-20) and the high-flying Dolphins (24-17) in losses would have been cause for optimism. In Week 3 they turned some of that positivity into a win.
But, that win came versus Zach Wilson and the Jets and only by a 15-10 score. And the Jets were only down 13-10 late into the fourth quarter until a Matthew Judon safety.
That win came over the exact same Jets bunch that the Cowboys whacked 30-10 the week prior. Dallas also easily handled the Giants in Week 1, winning 40-0.
So things were looking up in Big D, albeit with wins over two teams who now after Week 3 have a combined record of 2-4. Dallas’ Week 3 saw the winning streak end in an unlikely place in the desert. Installed as 12.5-point favorites, Dallas were shocked by the Cardinals losing 28-16. Being down 21-10 at half, Dallas was also on the back foot early and never even led in the game.
The last time these teams played was in 2021 with Dallas winning in Foxborough 35-29 in overtime. However, prior to that, New England had won each of six previous meetings.
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Patriots vs Cowboys picks
There are some conflicting stats here when it come to these teams pace of play this season.
Both teams are moving the ball, despite only the Cowboys owning the much better average in points per game (28.7 – 17.7). If you look at plays per game though, New England is third with Dallas right behind in fourth. That’s on offense. So you may think this game could go up and down.
But, defensively, both have been limiting their opponents in the plays per game category. There, Dallas ranks fourth and New England sixth.
Then there’s each team’s defense versus the pass. Dallas is ranked second (130.7 yards allowed per game) and New England is ffith (177). That could prove challenging for both of these quarterbacks to move the ball downfield with great efficiency. Neither Mac Jones or Dak Prescott have been lighting up the passing stats. And it comes to yards per pass, Prescott is 24th and Jones 27th.
I see this game being tight and played to a slow pace resulting in an under.
- Patriots vs Cowboys picks: Under 43 (-112) at DraftKings
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Patriots vs Cowboys props
Here are some bets to consider in the Patriots vs Cowboys player prop markets.
Hunter Henry receiving yards
In the first three weeks, Darren Waller had 36 yards, Tyler Conklin had 50 yards and then Zach Ertz only had six yards, but on only two targets as opposing tight ends versus Dallas.
As the Patriots top TE, Hunter Henry has finished with 56, 52 and 17 yards in his first three games.
New England’s offense isn’t explosive, which partially helps Henry get plenty of looks. He has the second-most targets, catches and yards behind Kendrick Bourne. A performance even close to his output form Weeks 1 and 2 could easily see him coast over this receiving yard prop total of 30.5.
- Patriots vs Cowboys prop picks: Hunter Henry over 30.5 receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings
Dak Prescott passing touchdowns
Dak Prescott hasn’t been bad this season, the Cowboys are 2-1 and he has a QBR that ranks 9th. But he certainly isn’t dominating the stat sheets either. His 647 passing yards are just 19th and he’s only thrown for three touchdowns. Even in a 40-0 route of the Giants in Week 1, Dak failed to find the endzone. So it’s now two of three games where he’s not thrown for multiple touchdowns.
The Patriots defense has held Jalen Hurts to 170 yards and 1 TD, Tua Tagovailoa to 249 yards and 1 TD and Zach Wilson to 157 yards and 0 TDs. I think they can keep this close and hold Prescott to under 1.5 touchdowns too.
- Patriots vs Cowboys prop picks: Dak Prescott under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120) at DraftKings
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