Let’s start off with stating a few facts.
Since Robert Kraft took over as owner of the team in 1994, he’s never had to stomach so much losing and mistake-driven play. As a season ticket holder for many years, he lived through some woeful seasons. But the 12 losses by the Patriots represent the most under his rule.
The Patriots were 5-11 the first year Bill Belichick took over as head coach. But nothing has neared that miserable mark until now.
The 12 losses with one game to play signifies the bottom of the barrel.
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The dozen losses also represent the most Belichick has ever endured during his coaching career.
And, adding insult to injury, the 27-21 loss to Buffalo on Sunday assured the Patriots of finishing in the AFC East basement for the first time in 23 years – Belichick’s first year at the helm.
That’s right. The Patriots have sunk lower than the New York Jets, everyone’s favorite punching bag and perennial cellar-dweller.
It almost seems like the perfect full circle bookend with Belichick, doesn’t it?
Kraft reportedly made up his mind weeks ago that he was moving on from future Hall of Famer Belichick, a head coach who has been a part of six championships in New England, and sits 16 wins away from tying Don Shula for the most all-time.
Deciding on a split wasn’t said to be the firmest decision, but how can Kraft possibly change his mind at this stage?
While the Patriots have certainly hit a low point, Kraft’s decision-making shouldn’t necessarily revolve around what’s happened this season alone. It should be based on the team’s deterioration over time, and that includes Tom Brady’s final season.
Perhaps the fight the team has shown, how well the defense has played with little help from the offense, not to mention dealing with injuries to key players (Matthew Judon, Christian Gonzalez, Jabrill Peppers) is reason for pause.
The complete erosion of the offense, however, can’t be ignored. It’s the primary reason why there needs to be a change.
The players aren’t anywhere near good enough on that side of the ball. The offensive scheme seems outdated. The coaching staff is lacking. The offensive line is overmatched. The quarterbacks are far from championship material.
After a promising rookie season, Mac Jones has regressed to the point of being broken. Bailey Zappe? He battles like crazy, and shows a resilience Jones has lacked for the most part. But he’s in a developmental stage, and more as a backup, as opposed to a starter.
He had three turnovers against the Bills. The offense had four overall. And those came right out of the gate. After 17 straight seasons with a positive turnover differential, the Patriots are a minus-10 on the season, with 17 takeaways and 27 giveaways.
Basically, the offense has been a mistake waiting to happen whether Jones was at quarterback, or Zappe.
While Belichick doesn’t coach offense, he provides the personnel as the de facto general manager. Between the draft, and free agency, he’s failed on that side of the ball.
The team had obvious needs at tackle and receiver.
And yet, he spent his first three picks on defensive players in the 2023 draft. He didn’t give the offense side of the ball a thought in those crucial first three rounds.
He also neglected to provide competent help at tackle, meaning the offensive line – and by extension the quarterback – has suffered all season because of that. He may have hit on Pop Douglas at receiver in the later rounds, but that’s hardly been enough.
Is Belichick’s philosophy going to change if he returns? Is Belichick the G.M. going to do a better job of arming Belichick the coach if he stays?
Or, if Kraft opts to bring in a completely new G.M., not someone who’s been affiliated with Belichick in the past, would Belichick stay under those terms?
The best way to fixing this mess is investing in the offense, rebooting the operation, and drafting the right quarterback in the upcoming draft.
Given how it’s played out, it’s hard to imagine Belichick all of a sudden thinking offense-first, and making that his priority. Not after such moves as putting Matt Patricia, a long-time defensive coach, in charge of the offense last season and expecting him to teach a completely new offense.
That’s not on Patricia. It’s on Belichick.
And while it was thought Bill O’Brien would be an improvement, and solve all of their offensive woes, that hasn’t turned out to be the case, not with a suspect offensive line, and no weapons at his disposal. Beyond that, the offense not only lacks players, but it lacks creativity. Change is needed.
While it’s hard to fathom a Patriots sideline without Belichick, Kraft can’t be swayed by sentiment. As great as Belichick has been, he’s left the team well short in the area that matters most in today’s NFL.
The facts are hard to ignore. Twelve losses, on top of the disintegration of the offense as a whole over time, screams for a change.
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