Once upon a time, the Patriots were the best closers in the business. They were deadly during the stretch before the postseason.
And with good reason.
Bill Belichick always adhered to the “football season starts after Thanksgiving” mantra. He wanted his teams to be peaking right before the playoffs, and his teams usually obliged.
Specifically, for the better part of two decades, the slate of games following Thanksgiving used to belong to the Patriots.
Once December hit, the Patriots couldn’t be beaten. They knew it. And everyone else knew it, too. They’d get on a roll to close out the season, and rarely saw themselves on the losing side of the scoreboard.
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Case in point, since 2001, the Patriots swept December seven times. Seven other times, they were only beaten once heading into January.
The past five seasons, however, the Patriots have gone in the other direction. Instead of hitting on all cylinders post Turkey Day, they’ve faded down the stretch.
The script has flipped. They’ve lost their ability to close out the season on Belichick’s preferred trajectory. They’ve gone from dominance to highly beatable when it counts most.
While many would attribute that to losing Brady, which is largely true, the trend actually dates back to Brady’s final season in 2019. After a 10-1 start, The Patriots went 2-3 in December, and were knocked out of the playoffs in the opening round by Tennessee. Even in 2018, they didn’t have the best December, losing back-to-back games against Miami and Pittsburgh, but managed to turn it around in time to capture championship No. 6.
Post-Brady, with Cam Newton at the helm in 2020, the team went 2-3 during the final stretch. In 2021 during Mac Jones rookie season, the Patriots were a playoff team, but went 2-3 to close out the year before being blown out by Buffalo.
Last season followed the same path, as in fade to black.
With seven games to play, and Thanksgiving in the rearview mirror, the Patriots have hit the same pivotal juncture. At 2-8, however, there isn’t much left to play for. There’s no reason for building momentum, or trying to hit peak performance. It’s more about pride and wanting to finish on a good note.
During the week, many of the players said they’d still like to finish strong, even if that’s at cross-purposes with what might be best for the team.
With changes sure to be in store, maintaining draft position should be the objective. And that means sticking with the recent trend, and doing a face plant over the course of the remaining games.
Just don’t mention the latter to the players.
“It’s something we’re aware of, the whole football after Thanksgiving (significance),” Matthew Slater said Monday. “Hopefully that’s something we can do a better job of this season.”
It might be out of the player’s hands. They haven’t fared well against good teams, and looking ahead, only three of the remaining opponents (Giants, Chargers, Jets) have losing records, with the Giants on tap Sunday.
“There’s still things to play for,” safety Jabrill Peppers insisted. “It’s just about setting new goals . . . by this time, a lot of teams are hitting their stride, knowing what works for them, what doesn’t.”
The Patriots haven’t hit any kind of stride all season. But they do know what doesn’t work. And that’s the offense, the quarterback, the offensive line, and the receiving corps.
As of Friday, Belichick still hadn’t officially named his starting quarterback for the Giants. The suspicion is he’ll continue to ride Jones, even though the quarterback has thrown 10 interceptions in as many games, and is among the worst-rated quarterbacks in the league.
Or, he’ll go with Bailey Zappe, who hasn’t shown much this year, after doing well in relief last season. In any case, it probably doesn’t matter which quarterback starts down the stretch.
The dearth in the quarterback stable is chief among the reasons the Patriots aren’t likely to get on a roll from here on out. Also, between a lack of talent on the roster, no longer having Brady, and the brain drain on the coaching staff (Dante Scarnecchia, Ivan Fears, Josh McDaniels), and front office (Ernie Adams, Nick Caserio, Dave Ziegler), the Patriots just haven’t been able to regain their contender status.
Perhaps having so many players in contract years (Trent Brown, Michael Onwenu, Josh Uche, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Mills) will keep some motivated to play well and push to win, even if they’re out of the playoff hunt.
It could also go in the other direction. Players in contract years might not want to risk getting hurt, and check out of games. Although, speaking privately with several Patriots who are set to hit free agency, they believe it’s just the opposite. They say they’re more incentivized to put good tape out for perspective suitors in free agency.
Said Peppers: “We’re not in a good spot right now. But, we got seven games left. Can we get to .500? Can we get past .500? We’ll see what happens.”
Maybe they’ll win a few more games, but given their current state, having them morph into the end-of-season closers they once were still doesn’t seem likely.
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