The Patriots appear to be taking the long, big picture view when it comes to rebuilding, and making the team relevant once again.
Fixing what’s broken isn’t going to be an overnight proposition. It’s a process that’s going to take time.
Jerod Mayo recognizes that. And so does Eliot Wolf.
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In retooling one of the worst rosters in the NFL, Mayo & Co. are going to attack it methodically with hopes of targeting the right players, as opposed to throwing money at the wrong pieces for a quick fix.
With the legal tampering window starting Monday, the Patriots – armed with the most cap space in the NFL – will be active in free agency, and they’ll spend, but they’re going to do so within reason.
During the scouting combine, Mayo walked back his “ready to burn some cash” comment, saying he misspoke out of excitement for how much cap space the team had.
“When you reflect on those numbers … you don’t have to spend all of it in one year,” Mayo told MassLive. “This is going to be a process. So I don’t want people to think, ‘you got 60 million dollars, 70 million, whatever, so let’s get this guy, that guy, that guy … it may work for a couple games, or maybe a season, but it won’t work long term.”
Let’s clarify: The Patriots do need to burn some cash. They do need to spend. That’s non-negotiable. But to Mayo’s point, they’re not going to overpay on a bunch of players just to make a splash.
Part of that is due to free agent options in some of the areas of greatest need – wide receiver, offensive tackle – not being flush with A-list talent.
Because of that, the Patriots will pick their spots to spend – they’ve already made a few important moves re-signing tight end Hunter Henry (three years, $27 million) and adding former Steelers tackle Chukwuma Okorafor. They’re also going to rely on the draft to help restore the roster. At least, that’s the vibe they’ve been sending in recent weeks.
Re-sign all of the key in-house free agents, add to the mix with a few impactful free agents, and flush it all out with a fruitful draft.
All of that sounds good in theory, but the more important question is whether Mayo will be afforded an open-ended time frame to turn the Patriots fortunes around, or, if he’ll be pressed to try and make it happen right away.
What if the Patriots trade down from the No. 3 pick and gain assets, as opposed to selecting one of the top three quarterbacks on the board? What if they opt to beef up the roster, fill some of their many holes through free agency and the draft, before landing the quarterback, whether it’s this year or down the road?
Is Robert Kraft, who turns 83 in June, on board with a slow, methodical rebuild? Or might he want/demand a quicker fix?
One internal source seems to believe Kraft will cut Mayo & Wolf some slack when it comes to building the roster back up, and getting the team headed back in the right direction.
That said, it remains to be seen how much slack, and how much patience Kraft affords the new regime if there’s no signs of progress.
Speaking with SiriusXM NFL analyst Solomon Wilcots recently, he put it into context.
“It’s tough to put a time, or time frame on it,” he said. “It’s not going to happen in a year, but you’re not going to get five years. It has to be somewhere in between that.
“I mean, they have to acquire players, and they have to develop players. They haven’t even found a quarterback yet. So (a timeline) remains to be seen.”
Whatever the timeline, Mayo and Wolf can’t afford to make any mistakes in free agency or the draft right out of the gate. They can’t get that snowball rolling downhill.
That’s basically what spelled Bill Belichick’s doom, the decay of the roster over time thanks to a pile of bad decisions.
So they need to make shrewd hires in free agency – overspending when necessary – and they also need to strike in the draft. They need to select the right quarterback, and supply him with talent at wide receiver and tight end, and also make sure to protect him on the flanks.
Outside of wins and losses, the development of rookies from the next few draft classes will be a telltale sign of Mayo’s success or failure.
“Over the last 10 years, (the Patriots) drafted 18 players in the first or second round. None of them went to the Pro Bowl except Mac Jones,” Wilcots said. “None of them earned a second contract. None were improving to the level that you wanted to keep them beyond the first contract.”
He is correct in that assessment, although it remains to be seen what happens with 2020 second-round picks Josh Uche, who is headed to free agency, and Kyle Dugger, if he’s extended beyond the transition tag. Second-round pick Christian Barmore, who will be up after next season, is also in the discussion for an extension.
Beyond that trio, however, the cupboard remains bare from too many years filled with draft misses, instead of hits.
Mayo and Wolf have to change that narrative. While Kraft may have some patience, they won’t do themselves any favors by digging a deeper hole this offseason. That’s why the Patriots are facing a critical free agency period, along with the upcoming draft.
While the Patriots may not be able to fix things all at once given all the holes on the offensive side of the ball, they can still improve on many of those fronts.
Asked what he’d consider a successful 2024 season, Wolf, speaking with the media during the NFL’s Scouting Combine, provided a realistic response: “Showing good progress and turning the culture around, and competing for the playoffs.”
Basically, Mayo and Wolf are building toward 2025 and 2026. That’s the unspoken timetable.
And for now, it’s a scenario that has Kraft’s blessing.
