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How ex-top Red Sox pick is back on prospect lists after falling out of team’s top 60

PORTLAND, Maine — Of all the high school infielders the Red Sox have taken in the upper rounds of the draft over the last five years, Matthew Lugo is a bit of a forgotten man.

Maybe it’s because Lugo is part of a brutal 2019 Red Sox draft class that has produced just two fringe major leaguers (Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter) in five years’ time. Maybe it’s because other infielders, like Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, Mikey Romero, Nazzan Zanetello and Antonio Anderson have gotten more attention, having been drafted in the last four cycles. Or maybe it’s because Lugo, who entered the pro ranks as a shortstop, is now a left fielder. No matter the reason, Lugo has put himself squarely back on the radar with a great first month.

Two days short of his 23rd birthday, the Puerto Rico native is off to a torrid start at Double-A Portland, hitting .354 with five doubles, two triples, seven homers and a 1.248 OPS through his first 19 games. On a team with national top prospects like Mayer, Roman Anthony and Kyle Teel, it’s Lugo who has paced the offense.

“He’s one of our hardest workers in the offseason, off the field and at the field,” said Red Sox farm director Brian Abraham. “It’s good to see that turn into production. He’s hitting the ball as consistent as anyone in our organization at this point.”

The Red Sox took Lugo with their second pick in 2019, taking him with the 69th overall pick out of the Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy (Beltran is Lugo’s uncle) in Puerto Rico. That started a long journey through the lower levels of the minors. Lugo didn’t reach Double-A until 2022, when he had a three-game cameo in Portland, and after being invited to major league spring training in 2023 (he hit 22 homers in 2022), seemed to stall out in Maine with a rough season at the plate last year. In 83 games, he hit .242 with little power (5 homers, .381 slugging percentage), a .677 OPS and a 28% strikeout percentage. He did not play every day for a loaded Sea Dogs team.

Lugo entered 2024 without much hype — SoxProspects did not have him ranked among the top 60 prospects in the system after having him ranked 12th a year ago — but is trending back to being front of mind for analysts and teammates alike. The site’s updated May rankings have him at No. 50 and he could keep climbing with more strong months.

“He’s a beast,” said Mayer, Lugo’s teammate in Portland. “I saw him my first full season when I got up to High-A and he was playing just like this. It’s good to see him back in form. He’s a hell of a ballplayer, hell of a person who swings it super well. He’s playing a solid left field for us … With the stick, it speaks for itself. He just rakes.”

Lugo’s offensive reinvention isn’t the product of a swing change. Instead, he said Friday at Hadlock Field, it’s the result of a purposeful change in mindset. After striking out almost five times as much as he walked (89 to 19) last season, Lugo entered the winter knowing he needed to make a significant change. That he was not invited to major league camp after being there a season ago put a bigger chip on his shoulder.

“I haven’t changed anything on my swing,” Lugo said. “It’s just a matter of being selective. I’ve always had power and always hit the ball hard … Last year, I was very aggressive at the plate but it’s like a knife with two ends. You’re very aggressive, but pitches that are not good to hit, you’re gonna get yourself out … Last year, I chased a lot of pitches out of the zone. I felt like a lot of at-bats, I took myself out. Not because of the pitcher but more of me swinging at wrong pitches. Coming into the offseason, I had an idea of the habit I wanted to create in the cage.

“My routine changed in the cage and the habits I was creating in the cage changed. In the past, I concentrated a lot on my swing. In the cage, I would try to hit every single ball good in the cage, working on my swing. This year, it’s more pitch location and where I want to hit the pitch. In the game, it has helped me to force pitchers to throw where I do damage.”

Red Sox officials like Abraham have been impressed by more than just Lugo’s power, which was on display over the weekend when he homered twice for the Sea Dogs. That he’s walking at a 12.1% clip after doing so at a 6% rate last year is an encouraging sign.

“It’s the approach and awareness of pitches he can drive,” Abraham said. “That, to me, has made a significant impact on what he has been able to do this year.”

The 6-foot-1, 190-lb. Lugo has always profiled as an athletic player and based on both his traits and the realities of their farm system, the Red Sox have worked to move him around the diamond in his six years as a pro. After drafting him as a shortstop, the club told Lugo to expect to play a few different positions before reaching the majors. That has certainly been the case.

Lugo played exclusively at short in rookie ball in 2019, but after the COVID pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league season, mixed in at second base for 53 innings at Single-A in 2021. Two years ago, he was primarily a third baseman while also playing second; in 2023 with Portland, he logged at least three innings at five different spots. With a crowded infield mix in Portland, he has played exclusively in left field so far this season, logging 147 innings there in large part because Mayer, Anthony, Blaze Jordan and other prospects are entrenched at their positions.

Versatility could help fast-track Lugo’s path to the majors if he keeps showing signs of life on both sides of the ball.

“He’s still can guy that can move around,” Abraham said. “I think the nature of the roster probably forces him into left field a little bit more to get in the lineup. There’s a lot of really good players on that team.”

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In a deep Red Sox system, a soon-to-be 23-year-old who completely fell off prospect charts a year ago isn’t the most intriguing prospect. But even a half-decade into his professional career, Lugo shouldn’t be counted out quite yet.

“He’s always shown a ton of athleticism, a ton of strength and a ton of ability to impact the ball,” Abraham said. “It has just been consistency at the plate and in the field.

“Offense is the driver of a lot of our players but someone like Matthew — who we’ve moved off the middle of the field and is more of a versatile player now — has shown better defensive consistency this year than at the plate. I think his plate discipline, his understanding of the strike zone and his ability to impact the pitches that he can drive based on his swing and what we feel like is best for him to consistently impact the baseball… he has really shown the ability to do so.”

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