For the past three years the consensus No.1 pick in fantasy football drafts has been a workhorse running back in the prime of his career.
For the past three years that pick has completely flopped.
Jonathan Taylor (2022), Christian McCaffrey (2021), and McCaffrey again (2020) combined to play 21 games in those three seasons. High ankle sprains wrecked their production.
Of course, that’s the risk when spending a ton on a running back in a fantasy draft: It’s a position primed for injury. This is not a secret. The No. 1 overall running back by FantasyPros average draft position (ADP) has missed an average of 6.1 games per season over the past decade, hence the recent shift to receivers at the top of the draft.
The question now: Are we all overreacting simply because Taylor and McCaffrey were prominent players? How much more injury-prone are running backs than wide receivers?
To put some numbers to those questions, I examined the top 20 players at both spots by FantasyPros ADP over the past decade, giving us a sample of 200 running backs and 200 receivers. Here were the major takeaways:
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Overall injury rates favor receivers
Running back injury rates
Played all games: 28.5%
Missed 1-2 games: 30.5%
Missed 3-4 games: 16.5%
Missed 5-6 games: 7.5%
Missed 7+ games: 17%
Average number of games missed: 3.3
Median number of games missed: 2
Wide receiver injury rates
Played all games: 48%
Missed 1-2 games: 25.5%
Missed 3-4 games: 11.5%
Missed 5-6 games: 3%
Missed 7+ games: 12%
Average number of games missed: 2
Median number of games missed: 1
How much does age impact wide receiver injuries?
Wide receivers are overwhelmingly healthy from the time they enter the league to their age 27 season. Nearly 80% of receivers 27 and younger missed two games or fewer. However, the numbers begin to decline around the age 28 season and extended absences become much more likely.
WR ages 21-24 → 79.5% missed 2 games or fewer
- Missed 3-4 games: 6.8%
- 5+ games: 13.7%
- Average games missed: 1.9
WRs 25-27 → 76.7% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 13.7%
- 5+ games: 9.6%
- Average games missed: 1.8
WRs 28-30 → 68.8% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 10.9%
- 5+ games: 20.3%
- Average games missed: 2.1
WRs 31+ → 63.2% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 15.8%
- 5+ games: 21%
- Average games missed: 2.9
Obviously, many of the top-rated receivers in 2023 are well into the 28-30 age range, including Miami’s Tyreek Hill (29), Las Vegas’ Davante Adams (30), Los Angeles’ Cooper Kupp (30), and Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs (29). All four are consensus first-round fantasy picks. With the exception of Kupp, it’s been a remarkably healthy group to date: Adams has played 94.7% of career games, while Diggs (93.3%) and Hill (83.3%) aren’t far behind.
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Older running backs might be more durable?
This seems bizarre, but we actually see the opposite trend when looking at the same statistic with running backs (percentage of players missing 2 games or fewer).
The running backs in the 27-28 age range are healthy more often than their younger counterparts…and then sharply decline around age 29.
RBs ages 21-22 → 56% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 20%
- 5+ games: 24%
- Average games missed: 3.4
RBs 23-24 → 60.7% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 12.5%
- 5+ games: 26.8%
- Average games missed: 3
RBs 25-26 → 57.9% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 24.6%
- 5+ games: 17.5%
- Average games missed: 3.2
RBs 27-28 → 69.2% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 10.3%
- 5+ games: 20.5%
- Average games missed: 2.6
RBs 29+ → 43.5% missed 2 games or fewer
- 3-4 games: 13%
- 5+ games: 43.5%
- Average games missed: 5.2
A few notes: The sample size of running backs in the 27-28 group (39 players) is considerably smaller than that of the 25-26 group (57 players) and the 23-24 group (56 players). However, it is larger than the sample size of the 21-22 group (25 players) and the 29+ group (23 players). It’s possible that the stats for the 27-28 age block would regress toward the overall mean if the sample were larger.
But most running backs in the NFL are young. It makes perfect sense that there would be more fantasy-relevant players 26 and younger.
Taking an even closer look, running backs ages 27-28 that were top 10 in average draft position had an exceptionally low injury rate. There were 21 running backs fitting this description over the past decade; 80.9% missed 2 or fewer games and 66.7% missed 0-1 games.
For comparison, here’s a breakdown of running backs ages 21-24 in the top 10 average draft position: 57.1% missed 2 or fewer games and 47.6% missed 0-1 games. It’s an enormous difference.
The obvious explanation is that running backs handle lighter workloads as they age, thus reducing injury risk. But the majority of the 27-28 year old running backs on this list finished the season as top 10 performers, which implies they most certainly did not receive light workloads.
The more likely reasoning: Players who make it to 27 or 28 as full-time featured backs have above-average durability. Many talented backs are out of the league or in severely diminished roles by that age. Those who aren’t must possess some special quality. Most of these players dodged injuries earlier in their career that would have A) Destroyed their athleticism and relegated them to backup roles by age 27 or B) Set them up for additional future injuries.
This checks out when examining the names on the 27-28 list — Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, Derrick Henry, David Johnson, and DeMarco Murray were banged up at times, but avoided career-altering ACL or Achilles injuries in their younger days. A select few players on the list — Dalvin Cook, Adrian Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, and Jamaal Charles — fully bounced back from ACL tears that occurred in their early 20s.
This year, McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, and Austin Ekeler are the top 10 running backs entering their age 27-28 seasons. While many drafters may shy away from them due to the perceived injury risk associated with their age, past data suggests they’re not any more prone to injuries than are younger backs. In fact, they might be more durable.
