I voted for 10 players — Adrián Beltré, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Billy Wagner, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones and Bobby Abreu — on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot.
There are 26 candidates on the ballot. A voter can vote for up to 10 candidates but no more than 10.
Below I explain each of my 10 picks.
Adrián Beltré
Beltré is 40th all-time in WAR (93.5). Every player who finished his career with a WAR of 80 or over —except for Beltré (first time on ballot), Albert Pujols, (not eligible yet), Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez — has been inducted into the Hall of Fame.
The third baseman was a five-time Gold Glover, four-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger. Beltre was a career .286/.339/.480/.819 hitter with 477 homers, 636 doubles, 38 triples, 1,524 runs and 1,707 RBIs. He’s 18th all-time in hits (3,166 hits) and 15th in extra-base hits (1,151).
Billy Wagner
Let’s compare Wagner to Hall of Famer closers Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith and Rollie Fingers.
Wagner: 2.31 ERA, 422 saves, 1.00 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 903 innings. 27.7 WAR.
Hoffman 2.87 ERA, 601 saves, 1.06 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 1,089.1 innings, 28 WAR.
Smith: 3.03 ERA, 478 saves, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1,289.1 innings, 28.9 WAR.
Fingers: 2.90 ERA, 341 saves, 1.16 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1,701.1 innings, 25.6 WAR.
Todd Helton
Did Coors Field inflate Helton’s stats? He still batted .287 with a .386 on-base percentage, .469 slugging percentage and .855 OPS in 1,106 games on the road.
MLB.com’s Mike Petriello has done some fantastic research on the Coors Field effect and how it isn’t what you’d think. See his article, “Arenado’s bat after Coors? No need to worry.” He writes, “Coors Field helps you hit at home, but it comes with you on the road, negatively. Being a Rockie can make you a worse hitter in other parks.”
Helton finished with a 61.8 WAR. Fangraphs wrote in 2015, “In terms of overall productivity, the sweet spot for the average Hall of Famer is a WAR between 50 and 70. Of the 244 Hall of Famers, 83 fall in this range.”
He’s 20th all-time in doubles (592). His 998 extra-base hits puts him ahead of Honus Wagner (996), Al Simmons (995), Vladimir Guerrero (972), Al Kaline (972), Jeff Bagwell (969), Tony Pérez (963), Robin Yount (960), Fred McGriff (958), Paul Molitor (953), Willie Stargell (953) and Mickey Mantle (952) among others.
He was a five-time All-Star, four-time Silver Slugger and three-time Gold Glove winner.
Joe Mauer
Mauer has a 55.2 WAR, which is near Hall of Fame catchers Yogi Berra (59.5), Mike Piazza (59.5), Bill Dickey (56.3) and Gabby Hartnett (55.4). He is ahead of Hall of Fame catchers such as Ted Simmons (50.3), Mickey Cochrane (49.7), Buck Ewing (47.9), Roger Bresnahan (42.9), Ernie Lombardi (37.7), Ray Schalk (33.1) and Rick Ferrell (30.8).
He’s a six-time All-Star, five time Silver Slugger, three-time Gold Glover and three-time batting champ. He also won the 2009 AL MVP.
Mauer is a career .306/.388/.439/.827 hitter with 601 extra-base hits.
Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez
I’m fine voting for players who tested positive for PEDs. Rodriguez and Ramirez would be sure-fire first ballot Hall of Famers if they hadn’t failed tests.
Rodriguez is fourth all-time in RBIs (2,086), fifth in homers (696), seventh in total bases (5,813), seventh in extra-base hits (1,275), 16th in WAR (117.5), 23rd in hits (3,115) and 33rd in doubles (548).
Ramirez is 12th all-time in slugging percentage (.585), 15th in homers (555), 20th in RBIs (1,831), 34th in offensive WAR (81.8), 34th in doubles (547) and 91st in hits (2,574).
Gary Sheffield
Sheffield was one of the most dominant MLB hitters for a decade and a half, earning nine All-Star selections between 1992-2005. He was a five-time Silver Slugger and finished in the top six in MVP voting four times and the top 10 six times.
He’s 27th all-time in homers (509), 39th in extra-base hits (1,003) and 65th in OPS (.907). He also stole 253 bases and recorded 2,689 hits (70th all-time).
His connection to PEDs is likely hurting his candidacy. He has never received higher than 55% of the vote. He testified to unknowingly applying “the cream” steroid on wounds in the knee area as Sports Illustrated wrote.
Andruw Jones
Jones won 10 Gold Gloves in center fielder, tying him with Ken Griffey Jr. for second most Gold Gloves at the position. Willie Mays leads all center fielders with 12 Gold Gloves.
Jones is 22nd all-time in defensive WAR (24.4). The five-time All-Star and one-time Silver Slugger winner has a career .823 OPS. He’s 48th all-time in homers (434) and finished with 383 doubles, 36 triples, 1,933 hits, 1,289 RBIs, 1,204 runs and 152 steals.
Carlos Beltrán
Beltrán is 25th all-time in extra base hits with 1,078. He’s just behind Hall of Famers Eddie Murray (1,099), Dave Winfield (1,093) and Jim Thome (1,089). He’s tied with Cal Ripken Jr. and ahead of Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson (1,075), Mel Ott (1,071), Chipper Jones (1,055), Andre Dawson (1,039), Frank Thomas (1,028), Mike Schmidt (1,015), Craig Biggio (1,014), Rogers Hornsby (1,011) and Ernie Banks (1,009) among many others.
He’s 29th all-time in doubles (565) and 47th in home runs (435).
He was a nine-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glover and two time Silver Slugger. He finished with 312 stolen bases, a .837 OPS and 2,725 hits, 62nd all-time.
He record a 70.1 WAR, which is in the same ballpark as Hall of Famers Jim Thome (73.1), Larry Walker (72.7), Alan Trammell (70.6), Barry Larkin (70.5), Ron Santo (70.5), Scott Rolen (70.1), Tim Raines (69.4), Tony Gwynn (69.2), Eddie Murray (68.6), Ryne Sandberg (67.9), Roberto Alomar (67), Craig Biggio (65.4) and Andre Dawson (64.8).
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Bobby Abreu
A few baseball writers I know well voted for Abreu last year. I was on the fence last December and so I asked them why they voted for him.
One writer told me to compare his fWAR (59.8) to Dave Winfield’s (59.9) and Andre Dawson’s (59.5).
Another pointed me in the direction of an article written by Fangraphs’ David Laurila on whether Abreu had a better career than Ichiro Suzuki, who will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Laurila showed Abreu had a better OBP, slugging percentage, wOBA, wRC+ and WAR.
“Unless you place an especially-high value on hit totals and batting averages, Abreu clearly has a career-wise statistical edge on the undoubtedly Hall-of-Fame-worthy Ichiro,” Laurila wrote.
Brian Murphy wrote an interesting article for MLB.com on Abreu’s Hall of Fame candidacy, arguing “fans and baseball writers completely overlooked his productivity in real time” and “when you view Abreu’s career in full context, it’s clear that he was one of the best offensive performers of his generation.”
Abreu received MVP votes in seven different seasons but he never finished above 10th. He won just one Silver Slugger and one Gold Glove. But the two-time All-Star is a career .291 hitter with .395 on-base percentage (83rd all-time), .475 slugging percentage and .870 OPS. He’s 20th all-time in walks (1,476) and 25th in doubles (574)
Author Jim Passon tweeted in 2022 a list of players with as many walks and extra-base hits (1,476 walks and 921 extra-base hits) as Abreu. The list includes only 13 players, including 11 Hall of Famers: Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle, Carl Yastrzemski, Mike Schmidt, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome and Chipper Jones. The two non-Hall of Famers? Pete Rose and Barry Bonds.
