If you are among the lucky ones still in fantasy mode this weekend, congratulations.
If you’re still beating yourself up for starting Kenneth Walker over Jayden Reed three weeks ago, thus ruining an otherwise enjoyable fantasy football season, it’s time to move on.
But before we close the book on 2023, it’s always fun to take an early peak ahead.
Here are our top 24 picks — or two rounds of a 12-team draft — for the 2024 season.
1.01: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
McCaffrey is by far the biggest difference-maker in fantasy football. He is currently outpacing the No. 2 running back, Miami’s Raheem Mostert, by 91.5 points in 0.5 PPR scoring. Only once in the past decade has there been such a wide gap between No. 1 and No. 2. And that was in 2019 when McCaffrey outscored Aaron Jones by 122.9 points.
I’m not generally in favor of banking on 28-year-old running backs, but clearly McCaffrey is an exception. Also, Kyle Shanahan has completely abandoned the idea of a timeshare, even in blowouts, and insists on feeding the ball to McCaffrey as much as humanly possible. At times, it seems like Shanahan is trying to prove a point. It’s amazing for fantasy.
Yes, there will always be durability concerns with workhorse running backs, but it’s not as though the top wide receivers are immune to injury (see Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp this season).
If McCaffrey gets hurt, so be it.
If he doesn’t, he’s going to single-handedly carry your fantasy team. You can screw up the rest of your draft and still be competitive. It’s a nice feeling.
1.02: Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Jefferson’s contract and quarterback situation for 2024 remain unclear, but his strong finish this season reinforces the idea that he is “QB proof.” He has 13 catches for 225 yards over the past two games with journeyman Nick Mullens leading the way.
1.03: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Like McCaffrey, Hill is entering the stage of his career where star players usually begin to slow down. Also like McCaffrey, Hill remains a complete cheat code in fantasy.
Since joining the Dolphins in 2022, Hill has nine games with 25+ fantasy points in 0.5 PPR scoring. That’s more than McCaffrey (7), Jefferson (5), and Ja’Marr Chase (5) over the same span.
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1.04: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Next year should be a bounceback for Joe Burrow and Chase.
Barring injury, Chase will produce under any circumstances, but keep an eye on Tee Higgins’ impending free agency. In six games without Higgins over the past two years, Chase averages 7.2 receptions on 10.8 targets for 96.3 yards and one TD.
1.05: Ceedee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Took the leap from very good to utterly dominant in 2023.
If you want to push for Lamb as the possible 1.02 behind McCaffrey, you won’t find much of an argument here. Very little separation exists among Jefferson, Hill, Chase, and Lamb.
Lamb is set to play under the fifth-year option in 2024, but could ink a long-term extension with Dallas this offseason.
1.06: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The Indy run game was a force with Zack Moss (and even Trey Sermon) carrying the load. Taylor, whose 2023 season was delayed due to a contract dispute and then interrupted with a thumb injury, should thrive alongside Anthony Richardson in 2024.
1.07: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Gibbs finished as the RB3 or better five times since Week 7. He’s as dynamic a back as there is in the league. He leads all running backs (min. 100 carries) with 2.6 yards after contact per rush, per Pro Football Reference. Even with David Montgomery returning next season, Gibbs should build on his terrific rookie campaign.
Gibbs’ 15.6 points per game (0.5 PPR) puts him right in line with impressive rookie performances such as Saquon Barkley (21.3 points per game in 2018), Alvin Kamara (17.5), and Jonathan Taylor (15.7).
1.08: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy players are not fond of Arthur Smith. Falcons management might not be, either.
To fully maximize his potential, Robinson probably needs some changes around him – a new coach and quarterback, for starters. The talent is obviously there, but the workload hasn’t been. Robinson has received 20+ touches in just three games.
1.09: Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
All things considered – coming off an ACL injury, thrust into a disastrous offensive situation with borderline unprofessional quarterback play – Hall enjoyed a successful 2023 season. His 37.1 fantasy point performance in Week 16 showcased his greatest attributes: game-breaking ability and elite pass-catching skills for the position.
If the Jets can clean it up in 2024 (which, I mean, who knows?), Hall has a chance to be the top fantasy running back.
1.10 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
St. Brown has topped 100 yards or scored a touchdown in all but one game this season. He has hit nine targets in all but four games. You know what you’re getting every week the Sun God.
The potential loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is a mild concern. However, the Lions have enough offensive talent to seamlessly slide in a new play caller and keep rolling.
1.11: A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Brown is on track for 1,579 receiving yards, which would top his career high set last year.
After a six-game stretch in the middle of the year during which Brown averaged 8.2 receptions for 138.5 yards per game, he has come back down to earth over the past seven games, averaging 5.9 catches for 65 yards per contest.
1.12: Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
There’s a little hesitancy with this projection because Williams is an undersized fifth-round pick projected as a pass-catching specialist coming out of college.
But at some point the production is what matters. We’re at that point with Williams, who receives McCaffrey-level workloads for the surging Rams. Williams’ short-area quickness and decisive running makes him the best fit in Sean McVay’s system since Todd Gurley. He has finished as a top 10 fantasy running back in eight of 11 games played.
With Williams under contract for two more seasons, there is little reason for the Rams to invest a high draft pick at running back. Only a Matthew Stafford or McVay retirement (both have been rumored in past years) could derail Williams’ 2024 draft stock.
2.01: Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Slow finish to the season for Etienne, who has not cracked the top 10 at his position since Week 8. Even so, there is a lot to like about Etienne – big-play ability, goal line role, increasing involvement in the receiving game in a fairly high scoring offense.
2.02: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
A bit of a projection involved here. Barkley is an impending free agent and could increase his stock if he signs with a better offense. Teams with ample cap space and relative need at running back include the Commanders, Bears, Cardinals, and Bucs.
2.03: Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
Provided Aaron Rodgers returns in 2024, Wilson should comfortably find himself in the late first/early second round of fantasy drafts. He’s an undeniably talented player who has been saddled with amateur quarterbacking and high school-level play-calling.
No one knows how Rodgers will perform at age 40 coming off an Achilles, but it’s got to be better than what the Jets have had this year.
2.04: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Too early? There are plenty of wide receivers who will produce 13-14 fantasy points per game (Chris Olave, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, DK Metcalf, Devonta Smith, a bunch of others you’ll see later on this list). There is one Josh Allen, whose 40 touchdowns leads the league.
Allen has outscored the No. 5 fantasy quarterback, Brock Purdy, by five points per game. He provides a huge week-to-week advantage.
2.05: Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Nacua’s nuclear scoring rate understandably settled down once Cooper Kupp returned. Still, he’s remained highly productive, outscoring Kupp (12.9 to 11.3 points per game) since the veteran’s Week 5 debut.
Nacua should continue his ascension in 2024, while Kupp is likely to decline entering his age 31 season. Nacua seems to be on an Amon-Ra St. Brown trajectory – high volume (at least seven targets in every game) and consistent production with the potential for spike weeks.
2.06: Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
One of the best all-around players in the NFL, Samuel has erupted for nine touchdowns since San Francisco’s Week 9 bye. This includes back-to-back 30+ point performances in Weeks 13 and 14. Deebo may not be a conventional receiver (hell, he might not even be the best receiver on his own team), but his unique usage in an absolute powerhouse offense gives him the potential to single-handedly win a fantasy matchup. That’s worth taking in Round 2.
2.07: DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf is quietly on pace for his best season since his sophomore year breakout. His touchdown upside gives him the edge over other wide receivers in this tier. Additionally, Seattle feels like a team that could chase a quarterback upgrade in the offseason.
2.08: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans’ numbers have actually improved after swapping out Tom Brady for Baker Mayfield. He needs two touchdowns over the final two weeks to set a new career high.
Fresh off a huge season, Evans is set to hit free agency in the spring. He figures to generate interest from wide receiver-needy contenders such as the Chiefs, Bills (Gabe Davis is also a free agent and Evans would represent a major upgrade in a similar role), and Texans.
2.09: Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Sneakily emerging as one of the league’s most reliable receivers. Pittman’s 10.2 targets per game trails only Keenan Allen, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill. He needs to increase his touchdown production to crack the elite tier.
Pittman should command a lucrative contract in free agency this spring.
2.10: Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk’s numbers steadily improved across each of his first three NFL seasons. He took a major leap forward in Year 4, averaging 85.8 yards per game and leading the NFL at 18.5 yards per reception.
After barely cracking 1,000 yards in 2022, Aiyuk is pacing for 1,375 this season. His six touchdowns are the only thing keeping him from superstar status. He’ll return to San Francisco’s high-powered offense in 2024 as he plays on his fifth-year option.
2.11: Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Electric runner whose individual talent exceeds his statistical output to date. Perhaps that changes in 2024. Walker will again be a polarizing pick due to the presence of Zach Charbonnet, but he is well worth the gamble at the end of the second round.
2.12: Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Many peers from his “era” (Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette) have fallen into backup jobs. A few others — Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, and Joe Mixon — appear to be on their way to similar roles.
McCaffrey and Kamara are the last two standing.
McCaffrey is on his own level, clearly, but Kamara remains productive in part due to his elite pass-catching ability. The skill set should keep Kamara relevant in fantasy for at least one more year.
His efficiency as a runner is a slight cause for concern; Kamara’s 1.4 yards after contact per rush ranks near the bottom of the league.
Also considered
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Kelce’s age and declining production were two factors in keeping him off the list. The other is the sudden abundance of good tight ends. The top five tight ends in points per game – Kelce, Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Mark Andrews, and George Kittle – are within one point per game of each other. David Njoku and Evan Engram are finishing strong, as well. In other words, Kelce is no longer providing a massive edge at the position.
Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp: We’ll group these 30+ year old receivers together.
Allen has been by far the top producer among the group in 2023. He is set to count for $34 million against the cap in 2024, so he’ll need to sign an extension to remain with the Chargers. Provided he stays put, he’ll have value again next season.
Kupp could bounce back if Stafford returns.
Adams and Diggs may be on new teams in 2024, which could drastically change their outlooks. Diggs has underwhelmed this year in a great situation; Adams has been stuck in a miserable situation.
Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts: The Chiefs may completely overhaul their wide receiver group, with standout rookie Rashee Rice as the lone holdover. Mahomes’ stock should increase leading into 2024 drafts.
Hurts has been great in fantasy thanks to his 13 rushing touchdowns, but his struggles as a passer down the stretch keep him a notch below Allen.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans: Henry seems likely to find a new home in free agency. If he lands a featured role in a high-scoring offense (think Baltimore), he could easily deliver a top 5 fantasy season at 30 years old.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills: Improved immensely in Year 2 and will be a popular breakout candidate next summer. Cook is locked into the Buffalo offense for another two years, which is worth a lot in fantasy. Other running backs such as Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard have unclear futures. Both are free agents, and both may slide into timeshares in 2024.
