We are nearing the halfway point of the 2023 fantasy football season, which, predictably, has been complete chaos.
Of course, this can be said for every fantasy season. It never goes as planned. But it’s usually a little more normal than this…isn’t it?
Injuries are crushing the entire first round of fantasy drafts, with Christian McCaffrey the latest to go down. Sam Howell is outscoring Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. A handful of NFL offenses are so inept it truly feels impossible for their players to score.
As we enter Week 7, let’s take stock of the biggest surprises in the fantasy football season:
The Raiders are one of the worst offenses in the league…yet they have two top 15 receivers
No one is shocked to learn that the Vegas offense is ineffective. They rank bottom five in points (16.7 per game) and ninth-worst in yards from scrimmage (292.3). And somehow, they have two must-start fantasy receivers in Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
Meyers has actually been the better of the two (14.5 points per game in 0.5 PPR scoring to Adams’ 14.1).
The Raiders funnel an unbelievable amount of targets to Adams and Meyers; they have combined for 102 targets, while all other Vegas wide receivers have combined for 18.
Meyers is on pace for 96 receptions for 1,072 yards and 11 touchdowns. Not to beat this into the ground any further, but maybe the Patriots could have used this guy?
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The Nico Collins breakout
Collins failed to top 500 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons, totaling 446 as a rookie and 481 a year ago.
Generally, receivers who fall short of 1,000 yards combined in their first two seasons do not become impact players. Here’s a sampling of receivers who started out their careers with production similar to that of Collins: Reuben Randle, Marquez Callaway, Dorial Green-Beckham, James Washington, Zay Jones, Cameron Meredith, and Van Jefferson.
And every once in a while, there’s a Davante Adams (446 yards as a rookie, 483 as a sophomore).
It’s unlikely that Collins ever matches Adams, but he’s clearly a damn good receiver. He’s made plays down the field for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, and his run-after-catch skills add an unexpected dimension to his game. His 8.4 yards after the catch per reception ranks No. 1 among qualifying receivers, according to Pro Football Reference. The next two players on the list are Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill.
Collins checks in as the No. 10 receiver in half-PPR scoring.
Wide receivers with terrible quarterbacks have been oddly reliable
Fantasy football 101: Avoid drafting receivers in obviously dreadful offenses. It’s one of the few concepts you can bank from year to year.
And here we are in Week 7…with D.J. Moore and Adam Thielen as top-five receivers.
Some teams run the West Coast offense. Others operate the Erhardt-Perkins. The Panthers just run the Thielen.
The veteran drew 34% of Bryce Young’s targets Sunday against Miami and 32% versus Detroit in Week 5. Those are Justin Jefferson numbers. At age 33, Thielen is randomly on pace for the best season of his career.
Other strong starts for receivers with bottom-tier quarterbacks include the aforementioned Raiders duo, Marquise Brown (WR15), Michael Pittman (WR16), Mike Evans (WR17), Garrett Wilson (WR20), and George Pickens (WR21).
But running backs with terrible quarterbacks have been a mess
Sadly, the same is not true for running backs, who generally have been torpedoed by sloppy quarterback play.
Among those unable to overcome their respective offense’s ineptitude: New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson (RB22, but it’s been rough), Miles Sanders (RB35), Javonte Williams (RB40), and Najee Harris (RB41).
Though reigning rushing champion Josh Jacobs checks in as the RB12 on the season, his 2023 campaign has been a major struggle. Jacobs ranks third in the league with 107 carries, and he’s averaging 2.9 yards per tote.
Jacobs and Stevenson were two of the league’s most efficient backs a year ago. Both ranked in the top 10 in yards per carry after contact, a stat that, in theory, reflects a runner’s individual talent rather than the pieces around him.
This year, Jacobs and Stevenson rank 42nd and 43rd, respectively, among 47 qualifying running backs in the category.
Running back is unpredictable as ever
Raheem Mostert, Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, and Zack Moss rank inside the top six among running back scorers in 0.5 PPR.
All four were being drafted as the RB40 or later this summer, according to average draft position data from FantasyPros.
To put that in perspective, here is the list of recent running backs drafted RB40 or later who finished top 10 at the position:
- Jamaal Williams (2022): RB57 in drafts → RB8 finish
- Cordarrelle Patterson (2021): Not even listed as a RB in drafts → RB9 finish
- James Robinson (2020): RB95 → RB7
- James White (2018): RB43 → RB8
Usually, one random running back breaks through per year. This season, there’s a handful of them. Obviously, injuries to Achane and Williams, as well as the potential for a diminished role for Moss, casts doubt on the sustainability of these early-season superstars.
Can’t-miss breakout candidates are duds
This list would not have been considered controversial a few months ago. Citing their late-season surges in 2022, I settled on Jahan Dotson, Jerry Jeudy, Kenneth Walker, J.K. Dobbins, and Drake London as breakout picks this season.
At least I got one.
Dotson and Jeudy, in particular, have been shockingly underwhelming.
Jeudy ranked as the No. 2 receiver in 0.5 PPR scoring from Weeks 14-18 last season, trailing only Justin Jefferson. Jeudy currently ranks as the No. 65 receiver, behind the likes of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Nelson Agholor, Brandon Johnson (the Denver receiver you certainly hadn’t heard of prior to this season), and Allen Lazard.
Somehow, Dotson has been even worse. He failed to catch a pass in Sunday’s win over the Falcons.
