FOXBOROUGH – Did anyone expect the Patriots to be back here this soon?
On Sunday, Mike Vrabel’s team takes on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship with a berth to Super Bowl LX on the line. It’s been a remarkable turnaround for a franchise that won four games in each of the last two seasons.
Now, in Vrabel’s first year as coach, the Patriots are back in the conference title game for the first time since the 2018 season.
During his time in Tennessee, Vrabel coached in one AFC Championship in the 2019 season. His team lost on the road to the Kansas City Chiefs. This week, he was asked what he learned from that game.
“You’re going to have to be able to execute in some critical situations,” Vrabel said. “There’s going to be some third downs that we’re going to have to convert. And there’s going to be some stops that we’re going to have to be able to make. And then I think the turnovers and taking advantage of your scoring opportunities in the red zone.”
The Broncos head into this matchup without their starting quarterback. It’s one of many storylines in this important matchup. Here are five things to watch:
Jarrett Stidham
The Broncos won’t have starting quarterback Bo Nix, who suffered a broken ankle in the team’s divisional round win over Buffalo. That’s led to former Patriots backup Jarrett Stidham starting for the Broncos on Sunday.
Stidham has a chance to shock the world. For the Patriots, a loss to a Stidham-led Broncos team would be devastating. With a berth to Super Bowl LX on the line, the Patriots’ defense is expected to dominate the Denver offense. If they don’t, it’ll bring back memories of the Patriots losing to Nick Foles and the Eagles in Super Bowl LII.
Patriots defensive line
The Patriots’ offense turned the ball over too many times in last weekend’s divisional round. They were able to overcome that because their defensive line was so dominant. Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was sacked three times and hit nine times. He was never comfortable, and that was seen with his four interceptions thrown.
This weekend, the Patriots’ defensive line will take on the top offensive line in the NFL. The Broncos finished the season allowing a league-low sack percentage (3.75%). In 17 games, Nix was sacked 22 times, which was an NFL low among quarterbacks who started every week. The Patriots need to buck that trend and make Stidham uncomfortable on Sunday.
Protecting Drake Maye
It doesn’t get any easier for the Patriots’ offense. After facing two outstanding defensive units, Drake Maye’s group has another challenge with the Broncos. Denver led the NFL with 68 sacks this season. They have four players with seven or more sacks: Nik Bonitto (14), Jonathan Cooper (8), John Franklin-Myers (7.5), and Zack Allen (7). Allen led the NFL in quarterback hits (47) this season.
Maye has been sacked 10 times in two playoff games. He’s fumbled six times, losing three. The Patriots must protect their quarterback on Sunday. It was a struggle last week against Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. It’ll be more challenging in Denver.
Turnovers
The Broncos are a talented team, but they didn’t force many turnovers this season. Denver finished the season with a -3 turnover differential with 14 takeaways compared to 17 giveaways. The Patriots finished with a +3 turnover differential this season with 19 takeaways and 16 giveaways.
In the playoffs, however, it’s been different. Denver has 7 takeaways compared to just one turnover in two games. The Patriots have five turnovers compared to six takeaways. The Patriots will need to win the turnover battle on Sunday.
Red Zone
The Denver defense has many talents. The Broncos finished the season ranked first in yards allowed per play, first in sacks, second in run defense, third in points allowed, and seventh in pass defense. They are also the best red zone defense in the NFL, allowing touchdowns 42.55% of the time.
The Broncos have been the better team in the red zone this season on both sides of the ball. The Patriots finished 30th in red zone defense (67.5%) and 17th in red zone offense (57.14%). Denver’s offense finished 13th (57.89%).
The Patriots need to be the better team in the red zone on Sunday.
Prediction: Patriots 20, Broncos 17
