Even as an upcoming batch of storms is expected to bring more snow to Massachusetts this week, spring is technically right around the corner and The Old Farmer’s Almanac has its forecast ready for the season.
The long-range outlook predicts warmer-than-average temperatures across the United States, with some exceptions.
Southern and Central California, the desert Southwest (Arizona and New Mexico), southern Florida and the western Ohio Valley should see temperatures near or below normal temperatures.
All of the Northeast should see warmer temperatures throughout the spring, according to the Almanac. Specifically in April and May, much of the region should see temperatures 3 degrees warmer than the average. Along the Atlantic Corridor, from Boston to Richmond, Virginia, temperatures could be 5 degrees above average.
On average, Boston sees high temperatures reach 56 degrees in April and 66 degrees in May, according to Time and Date.
But what could be different depending on where one lives in New England is how much rain falls.
Dry conditions should be common in northern New England and Upstate New York, along with Western Massachusetts and some of northcentral Massachusetts, the Almanac predicted.
Eastward and towards southern New England, forecasters see a likely chance for a “relatively active severe weather season … with the potential for damaging winds, hail and tornadoes …” according to the Almanac.
Overall precipitation in the Northeast should be above-average in April and below-average in May, with no significant snowfall expected, the Almanac wrote.
Any late-season snow should fall across the lower Great Lakes region, “an area that may experience chillier weather during April,” the Almanac wrote.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac says it’s the oldest almanac in the country, and has predicted the upcoming year’s weather, among other things, since 1792. A new edition comes out every year in early September, according to its website.
“We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity,” the Almanac explains of its methodology on its website. “We employ three disciplines to make our long-range predictions: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.”
One of the factors influencing this year’s weather outlook is solar activity from the sun, with high-solar activity levels historically being linked to warmer temperatures across the planet, the Almanac reported. The sun is in the middle of, what the Almanac and NASA call, Solar Cycle 25, which the space agency said is a less-than-active period for the sun. So far this year, its intensity has increased.
La Niña, in a weakened state, is also playing a role in how wet the spring season could be, the Almanac wrote. Forecasters noted that they are watching a combination of La Niña and the intensifying solar activity, which can result in Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. This can produce disruptive, stormy weather, according to World Climate Service’s blog.
In a separate spring outlook, the Farmers’ Almanac, a different publication, wrote that winter conditions should continue to linger with an “unusually late winter storm” expected to arrive in the first week of April.
