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Why Red Sox might be able to land Roki Sasaki — and why they might not

DALLAS — On Tuesday, the clock began to officially tick for Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki, who will be free to sign with the teams of his choice as soon as Jan. 15, and no later than Jan. 23.

Sasaki, 23, is considered one of the top Japanese players to express an interest in coming to play Major League Baseball. He has a 100 mph fastball and two other top pitches as part of his repertoire. Increasing his value is the fact that, because he’s classified as an international amateur free agent — despite several years pitching in Nippon Professional Baseball — teams can only use their international bonus pool money to sign him to a minor league deal.

That means, rather that the $325 million given by the Los Angeles Dodgers to countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year, Sasaki’s signing bonus is unlikely to top $7.5 million, which is the high end of some team’s 2025 international bonus pool.

As the Red Sox struggle to outbid other teams for top-of-the-rotation starters on the traditional free agent market, losing out on Max Fried to the Yankees Tuesday and with no guarantee that can win the battle for Corbin Burnes, Sasaki represents a far more affordable option, and a much younger one at that.

Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, said his client is eager to pitch at the game’s highest level and is willing to forego — for now — the bigger payday for the opportunity to pitch next year in North America.

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“Some of it is Japanese culture, some of it is just Roki Sasaki,” Wolfe explained. “There are no absolutes in baseball, there are no absolutes in life and through Roki Sasaki’s eyes — and if you look at some of the things that have happened in his life — some of the tragedies that have happened (Sasaki lost his father in a Japanese tsunami in 2011) and in his life, he does not take anything for granted.”

Sasaki will meet with some teams in a centralized location next week, and then, after the holidays, return to the U.S. with the potential for visiting a select number of cities in person.

Asked what will go into the decision-making for his client, Wolfe said: “I’m not entirely sure yet because I’ve known Roki for a little over two years now and it’s been a little bit difficult to really ascertain what his decision-making process would be for choosing a team because his focus has predominantly been on whether or not he’s going to be able to post. The best I can say is he has paid attention to how teams have done as far as overall success both this year and in years past.”

Craig Breslow, the Red Sox’ chief baseball officer who traveled to Japan in September to scout the righthander in person, left little doubt that the Red Sox will be making their case for Sasaki.

“This is someone who makes any rotation better the moment they join,” said Breslow. “As we think about pursuing front of the rotation options, I think it makes sense to canvas the entire landscape and we’ll be as aggressive and as strategic as possible.”

In the past, the Red Sox have had success in integrating Japanese pitchers, from Daisuke Matsuzaka to Junichi Tazawa to Koji Uehara, and that experience should boost the Red Sox’ efforts in trying to lure Sasaki.

“We have a long history of success in making a smooth transition and creating an environment where….Japanese pitchers can thrive,” said Breslow. “We have a robust infrastructure and a number of long-tenured support staff from massage therapists and strength and conditioning coaches to athletic trainers that I think can help and I think there’s a meaningful difference between hiring to create the infrastructure in response to a particular pursuit versus having these people embedded in the organization and understanding what a season looks like, have many, many years of experiences and intimate knowledge of how to help with the transition.

“Specifically, there’s a legacy of Japanese stars who have come over to contribute to World Series championships, whether that’s Daisuke or Koji or Taz and others. So that can be a very valuable recruiting tool, only in so much as they’ve had great experiences here and continue to come back and visit or even make Boston their home (as Matsuzaka has).”

Past success with Japanese pitchers is a decidedly positive edge for the Red Sox in their recruiting pitch for Sasaki. Other factors, however, aren’t as encouraging.

Wolfe noted that Sasaki had been troubled by negative media coverage in Japan regarding his desire to come play Major League Baseball and said, as a result, the pitcher might be more comfortable being out of the spotlight, rather than toiling in a market with so much attention like Los Angeles, New York or Boston.

“There’s an argument to be made that a small- or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing for him coming from Japan.”

Then there’s the matter of geography. A number of Japanese players — Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto and others — have chosen the West Coast, both for the climate and its (relative) proximity to Japan, compared to cities on the East Coast.

Wolfe noted there are now more direct flights from Japan to major U.S. cities, hinting that location won’t be as a big a factor as some have forecast. If, however, Sasaki prefers to shave off six hours of travel time back home, the Red Sox will be dealing from a disadvantageous position.

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