Like countless of pundits and “experts” out there, I poured all my research and knowledge into my final mock draft. I walked away so confident that I’d nailed so many picks. I was going to look like a genius come the end of the weekend.
So… uh… It turns out I’m not a genius and got some picks wrong.
OK, I got a lot of picks wrong — some of them I officially categorized as “Super Wrong.”
With the 2024 NFL Draft wrapped up, let’s take a look at the smoldering wreck that is my final mock draft and see how far off I was.
Mocking My Mock: How many picks did I get wrong in Round 1?
1) My pick: Bears take QB Caleb Williams (Correct!)
The actual pick: Bears take QB Caleb Williams
Congrats, Nick. You got the pick everyone has known was coming since the season ended. Have a cookie.
2) My pick: Commanders take QB Jayden Daniels (Correct!)
The actual pick: Commanders take QB Jayden Daniels
This was another layup. Daniels to the Commanders has been reported to be the pick for weeks.
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3) My pick: Patriots take QB Drake Maye (Correct!)
The actual pick: Patriots take QB Drake Maye
I resisted the urge to predict a trade down here. As a result, I predicted the Patriots’ first-round pick for the first time since I started doing mock drafts for MassLive all the way back in 2014.
Back then, I had the Patriots taking Oregon State DE Scott Crighton at No. 29 overall. He ended up going in the third round and played a total of 21 games in the league. Whoops.
4) My pick: Vikings trade up for QB J.J. McCarthy (Mostly wrong… a little early)
The actual pick: Cardinals take WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
I got overly ambitious here. I underestimated how much the Cardinals wanted Harrison here.
However! I did predict the Vikings trading up to take McCarthy… just not the way I anticipated.
5) My pick: Chargers take WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Wrong)
The actual pick: Chargers take OT Joe Alt
I figured with the exodus of receivers from LA this offseason, the Chargers would look to add weapons. Nope. They got a top-flight tackle to protect Justin Herbert’s blind side.
Smart. I should have thought of that.
6) My pick: Giants take WR Malik Nabers (Correct!)
The actual pick: Giants take WR Malik Nabers
Here we go! We’re back on track! I nailed this one. Nothing can stop me now!
7) My pick: Titans take OT Joe Alt (Super Wrong!)
The actual pick: Titans take OT JC Latham
Oof, I guess this could stop me.
I had the right position. But I was way off on the player. I had Latham coming off the board all the way back at No. 20.
8) My pick: Falcons take EDGE Dallas Turner (Super wrong… but more sensible than what actually happened)
The actual pick: Falcons shock everyone and QB Michael Penix Jr. for some reason
In my defense, no one had this pick. Heck, I saw it happen and still don’t quite believe it.
9) My pick: Bears take WR Rome Odunze (Correct!)
The actual pick: Bears take WR Rome Odunze
I actually feel pretty good about this one. Odunze is an absolute stud, but got lost a little bit in the shuffle of talent at the top. I should take my victory lap now. It’s the last time I’m going to look smart for a while.
10) My pick: Jets take WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Wrong)
The actual pick: Vikings trade up for QB J.J. McCarthy
See!? I told you the Vikings would trade up for McCarthy!
Meanwhile, here I was thinking the Jets would make a reckless win-now move. They signed a pair of veteran tackles this offseason. Instead of adding more weapons, they shored up their protection for Aaron Rodgers.
11) My pick: Cardinals take OL Troy Fautanu (Wrong)
The actual pick: Jets take OT Olu Fashanu
I was on the right track with the position. But close doesn’t count here. Unless I want it to, like I did with the McCarthy thing.
12) My pick: Broncos take CB Quinyon Mitchell (Super wrong!)
The actual pick: Broncos take QB Bo Nix
I figured teams would be desperate for quarterbacks this year. I didn’t realize they would be quite this desperate. I would have felt like a crazy person if I’d predicted 6 quarterbacks in the first 12 picks.
13) My pick: Raiders take QB Michael Penix Jr. (Wrong)
The actual pick: Raiders take TE Brock Bowers
Me earlier this week: “Oh yeah, I’ll be super ambitious and edgy by predicting Penix to go in the top 15. That will be my ‘hot take’ pick.”
Me today: “I know absolutely nothing.”
14) My pick: Saints take OT Olu Fashanu (Wrong)
The actual pick: Saints take OT Taliese Fuaga
This trend of correctly predicting the position but not the player with offensive tackles has me wanting to pull my hair out. Fortunately, I don’t have any hair these days. (Speaking of which, I really need to update my author page.)
15) My pick: Colts take CB Terrion Arnold (Wrong)
The actual pick: Colts take EDGE Laiatu Latu
It felt like every mock draft I’ve seen had the Colts taking a cornerback. So it was inevitable they’d go in another direction.
16) My pick: Seahawks take EDGE Laiatu Latu (Wrong)
The actual pick: Seahawks take DL Byron Murphy
I was one pick off with Latu. So close, yet so far.
17) My pick: Jaguars take WR Xavier Worthy (Wrong)
The actual pick: Vikings trade up to take EDGE Dallas Turner
So I was correct in thinking Worthy would go in the first round. But maybe I was a little ambitious about a prospect who was projecting to go in Round 3 in spots.
18) Bengals – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (Wrong)
The actual pick: The Bengals take OT Amarius Mims
At least I didn’t predict a tackle (but not the right tackle) for the fourth time in a row.
19) My pick: Rams take EDGE Jared Verse (Correct!)
The actual pick: Rams take EDGE Jared Verse
Like a lush oasis in a desert of bad predictions, here comes Jared Verse to the Rams to save me in my time of need. Just the thing I need to break away from my infuriating streak of incorrect tackles.
20) My pick: Steelers take OT JC Latham (Wrong)
The actual pick: Steelers take OL Troy Fautanu
Pain.
21) My pick: Dolphins take OL Graham Barton (Wrong)
The actual pick: Dolphins take EDGE Chop Robinson
Huh. I was convinced the Dolphins were going to add an interior lineman here. This one’s a bit of a head-scratcher for me.
22) My pick: Eagles take CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Wrong)
The actual pick: Eagles take CB Quinyon Mitchell Arnold
Well, I had the Eagles taking a cornerback. I just had the wrong one. I was also way off on McKinstry, who didn’t come off the board until Round 2.
23) My pick: Jaguars take WR Adonai Mitchell (Super Wrong!)
The actual pick: Jaguars take WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Oof. I was way too high on both Mitchell and Thomas. Heck, Mitchell didn’t come off the board until No. 52 overall.
24) My pick: Cowboys take OT Amarius Mims (Wrong)
The actual pick: Lions trade up to take CB Terrion Arnold
I thought Arnold might slip a bit, but certainly not this far. It’s crazy how many offensive players were taken early.
25) My pick: Packers take OT Taliese Fuaga (Wrong)
The actual pick: Packers take OT Jordan Morgan
If you’re wondering what that sound is, that’s the sound of me slamming my head into the wall after messing up on all of these tackles.
26) My pick: Buccaneers take EDGE Chop Robinson (Wrong)
The actual pick: Buccaneers take OL Graham Barton
I was a mile off here. I don’t even have any good jokes about it. However, I can tell you that Chop Robinson’s birth name is “Demeioun Robinson.” Not to be confused with Missouri DE Darius Robinson.
27) My pick: Cardinals take DL Byron Murphy (Wrong)
The actual pick: Cardinals take DE Darius Robinson
I had the Cardinals taking three players in the first round in my mock (after adding a pick via trade). Not a single one was correct.
28) Buffalo Bills – Xavier Leggette, WR, South Carolina (Wrong… So, frustratingly wrong…)
The actual pick: Chiefs take up for WR Xavier Worthy
I was so convinced I had this pick. But it was OK. The Bills only traded down to 32. They still had a shot to take Leggette.
(Spoiler alert: This story ends in tragedy.)
29) My pick: Lions take DB Cooper DeJean (Wrong)
The actual pick: Cowboys take OT Tyler Guyton after trading down
Oh, would you look at that? The team I predicted to take a take a tackle did in fact grab one. But they didn’t take the tackle I thought they would. Excuse me while I stare blankly at the ceiling for the next 20 minutes.
30) My pick: Ravens take OT Tyler Guyton (Wrong)
The actual pick: Ravens take CB Nate Wiggins
When I finished this mock draft, I thought to myself, “Hey, you should probably have Nate Wiggins going somewhere in Round 1.” Then I changed my mind. Like a clown.
31) My pick: 49ers take OL Jackson Powers-Johnson (Wrong)
The actual pick: 49ers take WR Ricky Pearsall
Nick, what were you thinking, projecting two centers to go in Round 1? What is this, 1977?
32) My pick: Chiefs take WR Ladd McConkey (Wrong)
The actual pick: Bills trade down, Panthers trade up to take WR Xavier Legette
Wreck and ruin is the theme of my mock draft I had the positions correct-ish. But like Icarus on his wax wings, I came close to the sun, only for it all to melt away.
—
How did I do? – I got the first three picks correct, and a total of six out of 32. But I am giving myself half-credit for predicting the Vikings would trade up for McCarthy.
Final Scoure: 6.5 points. That’s a major improvement over last year, when I got a total of just 3.5 points.
The moral of the story: Mock drafts are hard.
