All eyes are on the Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies this Monday night in college football’s championship game at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.
Michael Penix Jr. and JJ McCarthy have led their teams this far and don’t plan on slowing down. McCarthy was 213 of 287 (74.2%) for 2,630 yards and 19 touchdowns to four interceptions this season, adding 57 carries for 146 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Penix entered the Sugar Bowl with 4,218 yards and tossed 33 touchdowns to just nine interceptions.
Penix and the Huskies beat Texas in that one while McCathy and the Wolverines beat Alabama in the Rose Bowl to get to the CFP title game.
Fans looking to watch this college football bowl game can do so for free on fuboTV, which offers a free trial (as well as RedZone, for you NFL fans) or on DirecTV Stream, which also offers a free trial. SlingTV has promotional offers available, as well. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Who: Michigan Wolverines vs Washington Huskies
When: 7:30 PM ET, January 8, 2024
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
Stream: fuboTV (free trial); or Sling; or DirecTV Stream
Tickets: StubHub and *VividSeats
Gear: Shop around for jerseys, shirts, hats, hoodies and more at Fanatics.com
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Surge of betting for CFP semifinals, but short of setting records
By MARK ANDERSON AP Sports Writer
LAS VEGAS (AP) — The combination of a strong College Football Playoff field and the semifinals being on New Year’s Day sparked a surge in betting, but not to the level hoped for by sportsbooks.
There was anticipation records would be set, but the semifinals being played on a Monday likely kept that from happening.
“Last year’s numbers were really disappointing as the games were played on (New Year’s Eve),” Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operations at Westgate Las Vegas, said in a text message. “This year with the game on NYD, plus the name brands participating, we expected huge numbers. We almost doubled last year’s handle but didn’t set a record. We’ll have to wait for these games to be played on a Saturday before we discuss records.”
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The national championship between Michigan and Washington for the national championship will be Monday in Houston.
Both teams got there by surviving scintillating semifinals. The Wolverines used a defensive stand to beat Alabama 27-20 in overtime and the Huskies watched a two-possession lead disappear before finally denying Texas late for a 37-31 victory.
Joey Feazel, who heads college football betting for Caesars Sportsbook, said betting was up for the semifinals largely because more states have legalized sports wagering. But he said the average bets were up.
HUSKIES GETTING LOVE
Michigan is a 4 1/2-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, but it’s Washington that is driving the early action.
The Huskies are getting 64% of the bets and 62% of money to cover the spread, and 73% of bets are on Washington to win outright. The handle, though, is evenly split for the money line, which lists the Wolverines at minus-194 ($194 to win $100) and plus-160 ($100 to win $160) for Washington.
Feazel said money from casual bettors is on Washington at Caesars locations on the 4 1/2-point spread, but there is money from the professional bettors coming for the total, causing it to drop from 56 points to 55 1/2.
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“I think just the respect Michigan’s defense has,” Feazel said. “So not a lot of movement yet. Usually, we don’t see a big movement until day of for these type of games. But right now the public is remembering the dominating Washington performance and they’re betting Washington in this one.”
INJURY HAS LITTLE EFFECT
The uncertainty over whether Huskies running back Dillon Johnson, who has been battling a foot injury, plays is of little consequence to the betting line. Coach Kalen DeBoer said he expected Johnson to play.
Feazel said Michigan’s strong run defense helps lessen Johnson’s impact on the betting line.
“I think we do tend to see sometimes when someone’s announced as out, you’ll see just some line movement whether it’s warranted or not,” Feazel said. “But in this case, I don’t see much of a difference between this running back and the backup running back, at least for how Washington’s going to want to play this game, how they played against a good defense in Texas. I don’t expect the running game to really make that much of an impact for how this game is going to play out.
“If (quarterback Michael) Penix was out, it would be huge.”
GIVING PROPS
Different sportsbooks will have proposition bets for the title game, but not to the level of the Super Bowl. That’s largely because some states don’t allow prop bets on college athletes.
Some of FanDuel’s prop bets include:
— Penix’s passing over/under is 292.5 yards. That total is 190.5 for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
— Wolverines running back Blake Corum’s rushing over/under is 105.5 yards.
— Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze’s receiving total is 91.5 yards.
— A touchdown in each quarter is minus -200.
— For those wanting to take a flyer, Michigan is plus-6500 to win by at least 43 points and Washington is plus-5,500 to win between 31 and 36 points.
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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
Strength vs. strength for CFP title: Michigan’s stingy pass D faces Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
By RALPH D. RUSSO AP College Football Writer
The College Football Playoff national championship game between No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington is a contrast in styles and a matchup of strength versus strength when Michael Penix Jr. faces the Wolverines’ defense.
“You get a schematic, professional-style matchup and to me you get the Baltimore Ravens versus the Kansas City Chiefs,” said Fox analyst Brock Huard, who has called games for both teams this season. “The Huskies in purple masquerade as the Chiefs and the guys in blue masquerade as the Baltimore Ravens.”
Michigan (14-0) is a 4 1/2-point favorite over Washington (14-0), according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
WHEN WASHINGTON HAS THE BALL
Getting pressure on Penix is difficult. Washington’s offensive line won the Joe Moore Award as the best group in the country and tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten provide excellent edge protection.
When teams do pressure Penix, he is often unfazed. In the Sugar Bowl, Texas didn’t sack him once in 38 pass attempts and while it might have looked like the Longhorns got almost no push, they actually registered 16 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. When pressured Penix was incredible, completing 60% of his passes at 10 yards per attempt.
“Can Michigan strike up enough interior pressure and edge pressure to actually get to Penix, not just make him uncomfortable? And then can the safeties and cornerbacks find those layers of wide receivers and force Penix to make the impossible throw … and not give (the Huskies) any gimmes,” college football data analyst Parker Fleming said on The AP Top 25 College Football Podcast.
Texas got most if its pressure from the interior with powerful tackles T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. Michigan is deeper up front and better off the edges. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter gave Alabama fits in the Rose Bowl by making it difficult to identify what was coming from where. Minter succeeded Mike Macdonald, who left Michigan and coach Jim Harbaugh to work for Ravens coach John Harbaugh.
Huard, who played quarterback at Washington, said Michigan’s defense will test Penix and Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb as problem-solvers.
“It’s an NFL-type defense, which is a matchup mindset, which is change the picture pre- and post-snap, which is make it very difficult on the quarterback to read and react,” Huard said.
Washington’s veteran offensive line has allowed only 11 sacks for a team that throws it as much as any in the country. And while the Huskies’ deep passing game can be spectacular, Penix and Co. are good all over the field. If there is a play to be made, the Huskies usually make it.
Penix targeted receivers Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillen and Germie Bernard 20 times against Texas and completed 19 passes for 411 yards.
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Michigan’s secondary plays an aggressive style, led by star cornerback Will Johnson and versatile nickel back Mike Sainristil. The Wolverines don’t concede anything. They want to force opponents to make difficult completions. No team is better at making the difficult look easy than Washington.
Here’s the wildcard: Michigan has the third-best pass defense in the country by opponent efficiency rating (101.52) and has allowed seven touchdown passes, fewest in the nation.
But the Wolverines have faced only two offenses ranked in the top 20 in pass efficiency (Alabama and Ohio State).
“Michigan is elite defensively, but they’ve gotten to feast on horrific, horrific offenses in the Big Ten,” Huard said. “So from a stress test, Michigan has not seen anything the likes of Washington’s offense.”
Meanwhile, Washington has faced only one top-30 pass defense: Oregon, twice. Penix completed 64% for 8.2 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and two interceptions.
WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL
Strength vs. weakness.
Michigan runs the ball a lot and efficiently, and can do it in critical situations.
Washington’s run defense isn’t good (86th in the country at 4.40 yards per carry allowed), but Penix and the offense are so effective that opponents often can’t or don’t stick with it.
Texas’s running backs averaged 6.8 yards per carry in the Sugar Bowl against Washington, but had only 18 carries as the Longhorns seemed to get impatient early and then were scrambling to come from behind late.
Michigan is committed to the run with Blake Corum, who leads the nation with 26 touchdowns. Even in a game they trailed for much of the second half against Alabama, the Wolverines had 30 runs and J.J. McCarthy threw 27 passes.
Washington’s defense, outside of edge rusher Bralen Trice, who had two sacks in a ferocious performance against Texas, doesn’t have much high-end, NFL-type talent. The Huskies do have a knack for getting big stops late in games — which helps explain how they have won each of their last 10 games by 10 points or fewer.
Michigan and Washington have thrived off dictating the way their games are played. Michigan makes its opponents try to out-grind them. Washington makes its opponents try to keep pace.
“I really don’t expect there to be many wasted possessions,” Fleming said, “and we might get this really weird mismatch with these long plodding rushing drives and scoring and Washington coming out and scoring in four or five plays.”
RUSSO’S PREDICTION: Michigan 34-26.
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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP and listen at http://www.appodcasts.com.
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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
The Associated Press contributed to this article
