FOXBOROUGH – The race for the AFC’s top seed has pretty much come down to two teams.
Heading into Week 15, both the Patriots and Broncos have matching 11-2 records. At this stage, in the event of a tie, the Broncos have the edge based on their record versus common opponents.
But there’s plenty of time for either team to separate and eliminate the need for any tiebreakers.
The Bills (Patriots, Browns, Eagles, Jets remaining), Jaguars (Jets, Broncos, Colts, Titans) and Los Angeles Chargers (Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, Broncos) are the next closest teams, and also in the mix at 9-4.
But the Patriots and Broncos would have to seriously flop down the stretch for one of those teams to overtake them.
Their respective paths over the final four games merely adds to the intrigue of who will ultimately come out on top and gain the coveted opening round bye, and home field advantage for the playoffs.
Here’s the lowdown on both of the top teams:
Patriots
Head coach: Mike Vrabel
Quarterback: Drake Maye
Home: 5-2
Away: 6-0
Points for: 351
Points against: 241
Points per game: 27.0
Points allowed per game: 18.5
Wins of note: Buffalo, Tampa Bay
Toughest remaining opponents: Buffalo, Baltimore
Current win streak: 10
Reason to believe: Head coach/QB
Reason to doubt: Red zone woes
Remaining schedule:
- Sun, Dec 14 —vs Buffalo
- Sun, Dec 28 —at NY Jets
- Sun, Jan 4 — vs Miami
My take: None of the remaining teams should scare the Patriots. They’ve already beaten the Bills, Jets and Dolphins the first time around.
As for the Ravens, they’re on life support for a playoff spot.
The Patriots are also playing better than they were earlier in the season.
Drake Maye has emerged as a legitimate star. He’s not only mastered Josh McDaniels’ offense, but he’s also been adept at adjusting to whatever opposing defenses throws at him.
Thus far, no one has come up with the perfect plan to slay Maye and the Patriots offense.
The Patriots do have some issues, namely with red zone play on both sides of the ball, and the inability to gain a yard in a pinch no matter where they are on the field. Injuries have also left them with backups playing on Maye’s blindside on the offensive line.
But, as Vrabel learned from his playing days on championship teams, it’s important to play your best football after Thanksgiving. We got a taste of that in their Monday night victory over the Giants.
A win over the Bills Sunday would clinch the division title, and basically set the table for the rest of the way.
If the Patriots take down Allen & Co. they could easily run the table and let the chips fall where they may.
As mentioned, Vrabel has been down the road, both as a player and a coach. That experience should prove beneficial in pursuit of that top seed.
Broncos
Head coach: Sean Payton
Quarterback: Bo Nix
Home: 6-0
Away: 5-2
Points for: 308
Points against: 235
Points per game: 23.7
Points allowed per game: 18.1
Wins of note: Philadelphia, Houston, Kansas City
Toughest remaining opponents: Green Bay, Jacksonville, LA Chargers
Current win streak: 10
Reason to believe: Their defense
Reason to doubt: Their schedule
Remaining schedule:
- Sun, Dec 14 — vs Green Bay
- Sun, Dec 21 — vs Jacksonville
- Thu, Dec 25 — at Kansas City
- Sun, Jan 4 — vs LA Chargers
My take: The Broncos have a tougher road with their remaining schedule. But, that is somewhat mitigated by the fact three of their final four games are at home, where Mile High is a distinct advantage.
Payton, a Super Bowl-winning head coach, certainly understands the dynamics. He knows how much of an edge it will be for his team to gain a first-round bye, along with making every team come to him, and deal with the altitude in Denver and his menacing defense.
Speaking of the latter, it should be noted the Broncos’ pass rush hasn’t been as dominant in recent weeks as its been in the past. Part of that is due to opposing teams relying more on quick passing games to negate the rush.
It’ll be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can counter that, and get back to hindering Green Bay’s Jordan Love, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, KC’s Patrick Mahomes, and LA’s Justin Herbert enough to produce wins.
Even with that development, the Broncos defense as a whole remains their calling card.
As for the Broncos offense, it’s been good, not great. Bo Nix can look pedestrian, but when the game’s on the line, he’s shown the ability to don the cape and make throws to pull out wins.
Like the Patriots, it’s hard to ignore them in wake of pulling off 10 straight wins.
If they emerge from that final gauntlet of teams unscathed, they’ll more than deserve the top seed.
