Ahead of Tuesday’s deadline to protect prospects from Rule 5 draft consideration by adding them to the 40-man roster, the consensus was that the Red Sox planned to add three of their top pitching prospects. It was more than a mild surprise, then, that the club added just two pitchers (righties Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales) and left lefty Shane Drohan, who was at points last season continued the very best pitching prospect in the system, unprotected. The move was particularly curious because the Red Sox now have 39 players on their 40-man roster and have an open spot.
Drohan, who Baseball America ranks as the No. 9 prospect in Boston’s system, is now the top Red Sox candidate to be selected by another team in the Rule 5 draft next month. Last year, the Sox lost three pitchers (Thad Ward, A.J. Politi and Noah Song) in the Rule 5 draft but got two back when Politi (Baltimore) and Song (Philadelphia) were returned from their teams. Ward, the first overall pick in the Rule 5, stuck with the Nationals for the entire season and remains with the organization.
Drohan is the most prominent unprotected prospect but he’s not the only one at risk of being nabbed on Dec. 6. And in case anyone was wondering, anyone who went unprotected is ineligible to be traded before that date. Each player is at risk of being taken in the Rule 5 draft. Here’s a list of Red Sox who may be nabbed:
LHP Shane Drohan (SoxProspects.com’s No. 13 prospect)
In mid-May, it would have been unfathomable to think Drohan would not have been added to the 40-man roster in time to be protected. After getting a taste of Double-A action at the end of 2022, the southpaw dominated with Portland early in the season, posting a 1.32 ERA and recording 36 strikeouts in 34 innings over six outings. He was promoted to Triple-A Worcester in mid-May and seemed to be a candidate for a big league promotion if a need arose later in the season. Drohan struggled immediately upon being promoted and was never able to right the ship with the WooSox.
In a total of 89 innings over 21 games (19 starts), Drohan was tagged for a 6.47 ERA at Triple-A. He allowed 103 hits and walked 63 batters (6.4 BB/9) while showing a diminishing pitch mix as the season went on. The under-the-hood numbers were discouraging, too. Outside of a trip to the Futures Game in July, the last four months of Drohan’s season were a total loss.
Drohan, who turns 25 in January, doesn’t throw particularly hard (92-94 mph after an uptick in velocity during spring training) and had trouble throwing strikes throughout the season. Those two characteristics are known to be majorly important to new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. It’s unclear exactly why the Red Sox chose not to protect Drohan but the team was clearly comfortable risking his potential departure, just like a year ago with Ward.
Drohan is certainly a candidate to be taken next month if a team feels like his arsenal can play out of the major league bullpen for a season.
INF Brainer Bonaci (SoxProspects.com’s No. 11 prospect)
Bonaci, a 21-year-old infielder from Venezuela, likely would have been strongly considered for the 40-man roster if it were not for off-field issues. In mid-October, Bonaci was placed on the restricted list and pulled out of Arizona Fall League action for “violating the minor league Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.” The reason for his placement on the restricted list remains unclear. Bonaci missed time for various reasons during the regular season, including a visa issue that delayed his spring training, a hamstring injury that cost him two weeks and, for undisclosed reasons, a three-week trip to the restricted list at the end of the year.
When active, Bonaci had a strong year at the plate, hitting ..297 with 11 homers, 45 RBIs and an .818 OPS in 79 games split between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland. His .787 OPS and .354 on-base percentage in 16 games at Double-A were encouraging. Defensively, he’s primarily a second baseman who has a good arm.
Bonaci’s status on the restricted list will likely scare most teams off the idea of selecting him in the Rule 5 draft, though stranger things have happened.
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OF Allan Castro (SoxProspects.com’s No. 17 prospect)
Castro, an outfielder who doesn’t turn 21 until May, is far away from the majors, as he only reached High-A in 2023 (and played just 43 games there). Still, like Bonaci, he had an impressive offensive season (.261/.368/.405) and stole 19 bases; he posted an .801 OPS after being promoted to Greenville. The Dominican Republic native might be limited by his small frame but has offensive upside, making him an intriguing prospect.
Young position players aren’t usually taken in the Rule 5 draft so Castro is probably safe as long as a team’s not in love with him. It would be a big jump from High-A.
INF Eddinson Paulino (SoxProspects.com’s No. 20 prospect)
Paulino was a top-10 prospect in the system entering the year, per SoxProspects, but he slipped down the charts after hitting .257 with 12 homers and a .759 OPS in 115 games at Greenville. He, like Castro, is so far away from the majors that he probably won’t be picked.
RHP Angel Bastardo (SoxProspects.com’s No. 30 prospect)
Bastardo is a 21-year-old righty who didn’t post great numbers (4.68 ERA) in 24 starts split between Greenville and Portland this year. The fact he has Double-A experience (just three starts) makes it at least somewhat possible a team takes a chance on his upside. He projects as a multi-inning relief arm or back-end starter.
RHP Ryan Fernandez (SoxProspects.com’s No. 31 prospect)
Fernandez is one of the non-Drohan prospects who actually seems to have a chance to get taken. A former 23-round pick out of Hillsborough Community College in Florida, the 25-year-old reliever reached Triple-A last season and could be a big league depth consideration in 2024.
Fernandez broke out with a strong start to 2023 (1.77 ERA, 26 strikeouts in 20 ⅓ innings) but struggled to a 6.16 ERA when he got to hitter-friendly Triple-A. He flashed an increase in fastball velocity (96-98 mph) last season once recovered from injury issues he had in 2022. He introduced a curveball and changeup last season as well.
Projectable relievers are common Rule 5 targets, making Fernandez a possibility.
C/1B Stephen Scott (SoxProspects.com’s No. 35 prospect)
Scott had a small chance of being added to the 40-man roster and is one of the catching prospects who is closest to the majors at this point. The Vanderbilt product hit 19 homers last season, including 13 with the WooSox, but may not project as a full-time catcher moving forward. Catchers are unusual Rule 5 adds, though.
RHP Grant Gambrell (SoxProspects.com’s No. 38 prospect)
Gambrell is the kind of sneaky addition a team might try to make in the Rule 5 draft. The 25-year-old originally joined the Sox in the Andrew Benintendi trade more than two years ago and has quietly pitched well when healthy. He missed all of 2022 to have a benign tumor removed, then posted a 3.63 ERA in 23 starts across three levels last season. Gambrell was 6-3 with a in 15 Double-A starts, then allowed just two earned runs in 10 ⅔ innings with the WooSox. He projects as a member of Worcester’s rotation next year.
Gambrell doesn’t flash a ton in terms of velocity but limits hard contact and has pitchability. He’s a dark horse to be taken.
LHP Zach Penrod (SoxProspects.com’s No. 31 prospect)
Penrod is perhaps the fastest-rising prospect in the entire system and it would mark the culmination of an amazing story if he was selected in the Rule 5 draft. An undrafted left-hander out of Division II Northwest Nazarine University, Penrod was plucked by the Red Sox out of the independent Pioneer League in August. He dominated (2.18 ERA) in four starts there), then was even more impressive in the Arizona Fall League, posting a 2.98 ERA and recording 65 strikeouts in 54 ⅓ innings.
Penrod’s quick rise and age (26) suggest a team could take a flier on his upside, but he has only pitched 20 ⅔ affiliated innings, all at High-A, since 2018.
