Massachusetts and Philadelphia have a rich rivalry. The Boston Celtics versus the Philadelphia 76ers; the Philly cheesestake or Boston lobster roll; and Harvard versus the University of Pennsylvania football – are just some of the two states’ biggest beefs.
But, as Groundhog Day approaches, a relatively new rivalry has emerged: Which groundhog’s prediction will be right: Massachusetts’ very own Ms. G, or Philadelphia’s Punxsutawney Phil, the country’s unofficial weatherrodent?
Rather than consulting decades of climate science and weather reports, every Feb. 2, many turn to a beloved rodent to predict whether winter will last six more weeks. If the marmot doesn’t see its shadow, it means we’ll have an early spring.
The battle of which creature can more accurately predict how much longer winter will keep a hold over the Northeast will happen Friday. Anxious viewers can watch Ms. G make her annual prediction at Mass Audubon’s Drumlin Farm via Lincoln’s Facebook live-stream. Or watch the fanfare around Punxsutawney Phil making his prediction on the visitPA.com website.
Groundhog Day history
The history of Groundhog Day stems from the early European Christian holiday Candlemas – celebrated on Feb. 2, according to groundhog.com. On Candlemas, European Christians brought a lit candle to their local church to have it blessed. They thought this would bring blessings to their homes during the winter.
The holiday spread to Germany, where Germans believed that if a hedgehog saw its shadow on Candlemas, there would be six more weeks of winter, according to groundhog.com. When German immigrants arrived in the United States, they brought along their culture and traditions. They replaced the hedgehog with the groundhog, creating the popular holiday, Groundhog Day.
The first official mention of Groundhog Day was in a local newspaper in Punxsutawney, Philadelphia in 1886, groundhog.com reported. A year later, locals from across the town gathered at Gobbler’s Knob – where Phil lives – to witness his predictions. And the rest is, well shadowy history.
Ms. G made her first prediction in 2008 at Mass Audubon Drumlin Farm Wildlife Sanctuary in Lincoln, where she decided there’d be six more weeks of winter, according to the Massachusetts official groundhog website.
Since then, Ms. G has given an annual winter weather forecast, according to the U.S. National Park Service. But it wasn’t until the “Ms. G” bill was passed by the Massachusetts Legislature and signed by former Gov. Deval Patrick that the rodent was officially promoted to the position of State Groundhog of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.
Are groundhogs reliable forecasters?
Despite his popularity, Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions aren’t always accurate. Since the Pennsylvania rodent made his first prediction in 1887, he’s only been right 39% of the time, according to the Stormfax Weather Almanac.
In 2021 and 2022, Punxsutawney Phil predicted there would be six more weeks of winter. Turns out he was wrong both times, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
In the same period, Ms. G predicted Massachusetts would get an early spring. Both times, she was right, news outlets reported.
Comparatively, Ms. G has a much better track record, but, it’s still a little shaky. Ms. G’s Groundhog Day forecasts have been accurate 64% of the time, according to the U.S. National Park Service.
Last year, the four-legged colleagues butted heads as Ms. G predicted an early spring, while Punxsutawney Phil declared six more weeks of winter.
An analysis by The Philadelphia Inquirer found that the United States had slightly above-average temperatures in February and early March in 2023, suggesting that Phil could’ve been wrong … again.
On Friday morning, people will see whether Ms. G or Punxsutawney Phil are right. Probably safer to hold off on putting the snow shovel and winter boots away just yet, though.
