CHICAGO — The Red Sox have gone 11-1 so far in July and they entered the All-Star break on a 10-game winning streak, their longest since 2018.
Boston (53-45) opens the second half at Wrigley Field on Friday at 2:20 p.m. eastern. Righty Lucas Giolito (6-1, 3.36 ERA) will start for the Sox opposite Chicago righty Colin Rea (7-3, 3.91 ERA).
Below are the top 10 storylines entering the second half:
1) Will the Red Sox keep playing well against three straight first-place teams?
Boston is only the fourth team to enter the All-Star break on a winning streak of 10 or more games. Two of the other teams — the 1975 Reds and 1935 Tigers — won the World Series.
The Red Sox play the NL Central-leading Cubs (57-39) in Chicago and NL East-leading Phillies (55-41) in Philadelphia on a six-game road trip to open the second half. They then return home for a three-game series against the NL West-leading Dodgers (58-39) and Mookie Betts.
This is a critical stretch right before the July 31 trade deadline. As MassLive’s Chris Cotillo wrote Sunday, manager Alex Cora’s teams since 2019 have routinely collapsed in the second half for various reasons.
The 2024 Red Sox entered the second half 10 games above .500 (53-43) but they then went 28-38 in the second half to miss the postseason for a third straight year.
2) Boston must make the playoffs, right?
The Sox would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. They sit in the second of three AL Wild Card spots entering the second half. They are also just three games behind the first-place Blue Jays and one game behind the second-place Yankees in the AL East.
They have covered a lot of ground since June 6 when they were 10 ½ games behind the then first-place Yankees in the AL East standings.
Boston has not missed the postseason four straight years since John Henry purchased the team in December 2001.
If they miss the playoffs again, serious change might be necessary.
3) Will Jarren Duran be traded?
Jarren Duran trade rumors have been swirling for more than a month.
The Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders (Duran, Masataka Yoshida, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder).
The plan is for Rafaela to play second base once or twice a week and he started there Saturday. But the Red Sox understand how valuable Rafaela is in center field where he has 14 defensive runs saved in 775 ⅔ innings. They need him there as often as possible.
Cora will continue to have to make tough daily lineup decisions. There usually will be one odd-man out among Abreu, Yoshida, Rafaela and Duran each game.
The majority of Anthony’s starts are expected to come in the outfield, not DH. “Roman needs to play the outfield. He cannot be a DH at 21,” Cora said recently.
Anthony has five defensive runs in 139 ⅓ innings in right field. But the eye test shows Abreu is a much superior defensive right fielder. Abreu needs to be out there most days especially at Fenway Park, which has the most spacious right field in the majors.
Anthony fits best in left field where Duran has made 89 of his 94 starts.
It makes more sense to trade Duran than Abreu to improve another area of the roster (like starting pitching). Nobody on the roster would be able to replace Abreu’s defensive value in right.
4) What will the Red Sox do to upgrade at the deadline?
Chris Cotillo published a piece Wednesday night highlighting what MassLive is hearing ahead of the trade deadline.
Starting rotation remains the biggest need despite Red Sox starters pitching excellently of late. The rotation is 8-0 with a 2.05 ERA in 12 games during July.
Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello have especially stepped up behind ace Garrett Crochet. Giolito is 5-0 with a 0.70 ERA (38 ⅔ innings, three earned runs) in his past six starts. Brayan Bello is 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA (51 ⅔ innings, 15 earned runs) in his past eight outings.
Still, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has acknowledged that he wants to add “an impact starter.”
Cotillo also identified first base, backup catcher and bullpen as areas Breslow could address.
5) Roman Anthony’s finishing top two for AL Rookie of the Year would affect service time
Athletics’ Jacob Wilson, the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, has a 2.3 bWAR in 87 games. Anthony has a 1.2 bWAR in just 31 games.
Cora plans to play Anthony almost every day with 64 games remaining. The 21-year-old phenom could finish the year with a bWAR in the 3s if he continues to produce at the same rate.
Gary Sanchez finished second for 2016 AL Rookie of the Year after the Yankees called him up that Aug. 3. He compiled a 3.0 bWAR in just 53 games.
The competition is steeper this year. Wilson is batting .332. Athletics rookie Nick Kurtz, his teammate, has 17 home runs in 58 games.
Anthony right now has the fourth best odds (+2500) behind Wilson (+110), Astros’ Cam Smith (+140) and Kurtz (+350), per DraftKings.
A top two Rookie of the Year finish is not out of the question for Anthony with a big second half that results in a playoff berth for Boston. Anthony already has better odds than Red Sox rookie catcher Carlos Narváez (+3500).
This is a big storyline because of the service time factor.
The top two finishers are rewarded with a full year of service time. Anthony, therefore, would hit free agency a year earlier if he finishes first or second.
6) Will Carlos Narváez wear down? Will Red Sox upgrade at backup catcher to prevent it?
Narváez already has caught more innings (606 ⅔ innings) than he ever has in one season. His previous high was 565 ⅓ innings for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and Double-A Somerset in 2023.
Catcher is the most demanding position. Narváez’s heavy workload is something that requires careful monitoring.
Narváez is in the 100th percentile in caught stealing above average, 95th percentile in blocks above average and 90th percentile in framing. He has a .347 on-base percentage. Will the 26-year-old sustain the same offensive and defensive production if his workload remains the same?
Backup Connor Wong went 13-for-87 (.149) with no extra-base hits and one RBI during the first half. His framing has been better this year but his blocking has been below average.
The Red Sox might consider upgrading at backup catcher. Twins’ Christian Vázquez, who played for Boston from 2014-22, might be an interesting potential trade target.
7) The Red Sox need more production at first base. Will they upgrade ahead of the deadline?
Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez are big reasons why the Red Sox are eight games over .500.
Gonzalez needs to play at second base or first base every time Boston goes against a left-handed starting pitcher. He’s tremendously locked in vs. southpaws, batting .406 (28-for-69) with a .462 on-base percentage, .739 slugging percentage, 1.201 OPS, four homers, seven doubles, two triples, 16 RBIs, eight walks and 17 strikeouts against them.
Toro has held his own but he has three hits in his past 24 at-bats (.125) and he’s a career .226/.289/.361/.651 hitter.
8) Garrett Crochet’s Cy Young candidacy (and workload)
Garrett Crochet is leading all major league pitchers in innings (129 ⅓). He’s only 16 ⅔ innings shy of his career high (146 innings last year).
The White Sox monitored his second half workload in ’24 when he threw 38 ⅔ innings in 12 starts compared to 107 ⅓ innings in 20 starts during the first half.
Crochet’s Cy Young candidacy is real if he doesn’t tire in the second half. He has the second best odds (+240) behind only Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (-200).
9) Will Ceddanne Rafaela be a top 10 AL MVP finisher?
Ceddanne Rafaela is ninth in the AL right now in fWAR (3.4). He’s seventh among AL position players.
He should finish in the top 10 of the AL MVP voting if he maintains this pace.
He’s driving the offense right now and critical to Boston’s success moving forward. He has a .918 OPS with men on base. He had a .987 OPS during Boston’s 23-10 stretch to close out the first half.
He struggled in his first 29 games. But he has a .300/.333/.559/.892 line with 12 homers, 19 doubles, one triple, 33 RBIs and 38 runs in 63 games (233 plate appearance since May 3.
10) Can Trevor Story keep it up?
The 32-year-old Story started the season strong, batting .337 with a .366 on-base percentage, .528 slugging percentage and .894 OPS in his first 23 games (93 plate appearances).
He then turned into one of the major’s worst hitters from April 22-June 6, slashing .138/.199/.193/.392 in 38 games (157 plate appearances).
But he broke out of his slump during the final 33 games of the first half when the Red Sox went 23-10. Story played every game and posted a .336/.366/.594/.959 line (134 plate appearances).
He has always been a streaky hitter. He inevitably will slump at some point during the second half. But can he keep his slumps shorter than 38 games? Can he produce more than a .138 batting average during a bad stretch?
Nobody should expect him to continue to hit .336 but he must avoid the extreme lows.
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