One week. That’s all that separates the Red Sox from Opening Day next Thursday in Seattle. It’s time, after weeks of debate and competition, for Boston’s decision-makers to begin finalizing the 26-man roster that will head to the Pacific Northwest.
The Red Sox leave Fort Myers on Sunday night in advance of two exhibition games against the Rangers in Arlington, Texas on Monday and Tuesday. It’s likely that by the end of the weekend, barring a late change, most of the roster will be figured out. The club has 42 players still in camp, including more than a handful that will be placed on the injured list. A couple of decisions are still pending, especially with four veteran opt-outs looming.
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Here’s one final crack at projecting the Opening Day roster, with some analysis (this time in bullet form for the sake of brevity:
STARTING PITCHERS (5): RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Garrett Whitlock
INJURED LIST (1): RHP Lucas Giolito (elbow surgery)
* Like they have been all spring, the trio of Bello, Pivetta and Crawford are locks for the rotation and will likely pitch in that order in Seattle.
* Houck has pitched very well in camp and seems very well-positioned for that fourth spot over Cooper Criswell and Garrett Whitlock. The No. 5 spot is still up for grabs between those two righties but Whitlock’s track record with the organization and more robust big league experience gives him the edge. As written below, Criswell isn’t a lock to be sent to Triple-A if he doesn’t make the rotation; he could very possibly make the major league bullpen in a long relief role similar to Josh Winckowski’s.
* The Red Sox remain very light on rotation depth, especially in the wake of Giolito’s season-ending injury. If they don’t make the rotation, both Winckowski and Criswell will likely be the first line of defense if a starter gets hurt. Brandon Walter and veteran Jason Alexander are the top depth options at Triple-A with prospects Richard Fitts, Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales not ready to contribute in the majors. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow may scour the opt-out market for a veteran rotation arm to stash at Triple-A in the coming days.
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RELIEF PITCHERS (8): RHP Chris Martin, LHP Brennan Bernardino, RHP Justin Slaten, RHP Josh Winckowski, RHP Cooper Criswell, RHP Isaiah Campbell, RHP Greg Weissert, LHP Joely Rodríguez
INJURED LIST (2): RHP Kenley Jansen (back tightness), RHP Bryan Mata (hamstring strain), RHP Liam Hendriks (Tommy John surgery recovery), LHP Chris Murphy (torn ligament in elbow)
* It’s not certain yet that Jansen, who is scheduled to pitch Thursday, will begin the year on the injured list with back tightness that his slowed his progression. But don’t count on the Red Sox pushing a 36-year-old closer who hasn’t been 100% at any point in camp to be ready for Opening Day if something is barking. The Red Sox can backdate Jansen’s 15-day stint by three days so that he’d only miss the first 12 days and be eligible for the home opener.
* Martin, Slaten, Winckowski and Campbell are locked into spots and it’s hard to envision Bernardino being optioned after a great 2023 and dominant spring. If Jansen’s out, that means there are three spots available; the Red Sox would then have 15 healthy pitchers left in camp for 13 spots (and five going to the IL).
* Criswell, Weissert and Zack Kelly are the righties still battling but they’ll all factor into the major league mix early in the the season. All three can be optioned back and forth up to five times. Kelly had a minor oblique injury that caused him to slow down for a few days but has been sitting 96-97 mph all spring and is firmly in the mix. The Red Sox will likely use all three of these pitchers during their opening west coast trip.
* Rodríguez and Luetge are both veteran southpaws with opt-out clauses. It’s really a toss-up between the two, though the club knows Rodríguez a little better after having him for all of 2023. The guess here is that the Sox do end up taking two lefties. Murphy was in the mix before suffering an elbow injury that is likely season-ending.
* Keeping both Winckowski and Criswell stretched out in the majors instead of putting them in the rotation at Triple-A makes the most sense because manager Alex Cora doesn’t like to push his starters the first couple times through the rotation, meaning he’ll need a lot of bulk from the bullpen early on when the team opens with 10 games in 11 days on the west coast, then have a 13-day stretch with no days off starting April 9. Using six starters at least one time through the rotation is possible, if not likely.
* Two righties (Justin Hagenman and Luis Guerrero) and two lefties (Jorge Benítez and Cam Booser) particularly turned heads in camp and are helium guys who could reach the majors this year. None of them are on the 40-man roster but they’ll all be in Worcester. Other Triple-A depth options include lefty Joe Jacques and righties Chase Shugart, A.J. Politi and Franklin German.
* When Mata is healthy enough to pitch, he’ll effectively have a 30-day audition for a roster spot in the form of a rehab assignment at Triple-A. The Red Sox fear losing him to waivers if they have to go that route.
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CATCHERS (2): C Connor Wong, C Reese McGuire
* Wong and McGuire are once again expected to be the starter-backup duo, at least until top prospect Kyle Teel pushes for the majors either late this year or early in 2025.
* Roberto Pérez is a bit of a wild card here because he’s a two-time Gold Glover who can opt out of his deal Friday for a better opportunity. It’s very unlikely he beats out McGuire but the Red Sox would love to keep him at Triple-A in case something happens. He’s viewed as an excellent defender.
* Pérez, Tyler Heineman, Mark Kolozsvary, Stephen Scott and Nathan Hickey give the Red Sox a deep stable of upper-level depth options.
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INFIELDERS (6): 1B Triston Casas, 2B Enmanuel Valdez, SS Trevor Story, 3B Rafael Devers, INF/OF Pablo Reyes, 1B C.J. Cron
INJURED LIST (1): 2B Vaughn Grissom (groin strain)
* Casas, Story and Devers will be everyday starters at their position as expected. Valdez and Reyes will platoon at second base for the first few weeks of the season until Grissom returns (likely by the end of April).
* That leaves one infield spot up for grabs and it’s between Cron and Bobby Dalbec. It’s clear the Red Sox want a right-handed backup first baseman on the roster. Dalbec provides more versatility because he can play third base and the corner infield positions. Cron, on the other hand, can only play first. It’ll be a toss-up between them but for now, we’ll give Cron the edge because keeping him over Dalbec is the easiest way to preserve depth. Cron has an opt-out clause he can exercise Friday; if the Red Sox want to preserve depth, they’ll put him on the roster and send Dalbec down. It’s all about roster construction.
* In Worcester, the Red Sox will have plenty of depth options. There are guys with major league experience (David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, Joe Dunand and Dalton Guthrie) and some who don’t (Nick Yorke, Chase Meidroth, Nick Sogard and Jamie Westbrook).
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OUTFIELDERS (5): DH/LF Masataka Yoshida, RF/LF Wilyer Abreu, CF/LF Jarren Duran, OF Tyler O’Neill, OF Ceddanne Rafaela
INJURED LIST (1): OF Rob Refsnyder (fractured toe)
* At this point, it’s all but certain Rafaela makes the Opening Day roster as the starting center fielder. He would finish off a five-man group that also includes Abreu, Duran, O’Neill and Yoshida, who are all locks with Refsnyder hurt.
* The likely alignment has Rafaela in center on an everyday basis, Abreu in right nearly every day and Duran and O’Neill sharing left field while mixing around elsewhere. O’Neill can play some right field on days when Abreu is out. Duran will get in the mix in center when Rafaela sits or moves to the middle infield. Yoshida will be the everyday DH.
* It still would not be a surprise, though, to see the Red Sox add a right-handed outfield bat before Opening Day. They will heavily monitor the opt-out market in that regard.
* There’s not much upper level outfield depth at Triple-A. Mark Contreras, Guthrie and Corey Rosier were all in camp as NRIs. Gonzalez and Dalbec can also play outfield as well if need be.
