Six weeks from now, Red Sox pitchers and catchers will already have had their first workout of spring training at JetBlue Park in Fort Myers. The roster will be (almost certainly) complete and Boston’s mission to contend for the first time in three seasons will begin in earnest.
The exact group of players the Red Sox will bring to Fort Myers is still to be determined, as the club still has some holes to fill before camp breaks. That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been major change already, though. Since taking over, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has traded Alex Verdugo and Chris Sale, acquired Vaughn Grissom and Tyler O’Neill and signed Lucas Giolito. His work is far from done.
In the spirit of predictions — see my 24 predictions for the Red Sox from 2024, which, again, was intended to be more of a fun exercise than any hardcore reporting — it’s time for the first Opening Day roster projection of the calendar year. It is, at best, a slightly informed guess at the 26 men who will take the field when the Sox take the field in Seattle to open their season on March 28. And it’s absolutely, 100% not going to be accurate because unexpected moves, different transactions than what I have pegged and injuries will all occur. (Seriously, don’t aggregate this.)
Here’s the projection, with any player not yet in the organization denoted with an asterisk (*) as a potential acquisition:
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STARTING PITCHERS (5): RHP Brayan Bello, LHP Jesús Luzardo*, RHP Lucas Giolito, LHP James Paxton*, RHP Kutter Crawford
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox pretty clearly entered the winter needing two starting pitchers. They signed Giolito, then traded Sale, so they… would seem to need two again. Here, we’ll give them Luzardo in a blockbuster trade with the Marlins (more on the return later) with another southpaw, Paxton, re-signing. At this point, it just seems more likely the Sox turn to the trade market for a top starter (they have the ammo to add a controllable guy) then add an expensive free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. (Though a pivot to someone like Shōta Imanaga, Marcus Stroman or Michael Lorenzen can’t be ruled out). The names here fit but they’re really interchangeable; the point is that it makes sense to fill out the rotation with a pretty good, controllable trade addition (hello Miami and Seattle) and someone else to fill in the back end, likely via free agency.
Those moves, of course, would create a competition between many (Crawford, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Nick Pivetta) for the final spot and a trickle-down effect in the bullpen. Crawford pitched well enough last year to earn a spot again, pushing everyone else to a suddenly stacked bullpen. The pitchers who go to the bullpen will represent the first layer of rotation depth in case of injury. Cooper Criswell and Max Castillo provide even more at Triple-A with prospects Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales, who are both on the 40-man roster, working their way up the farm system along with Richard Fitts and others.
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RELIEF PITCHERS (8): RHP Chris Martin, RHP Tanner Houck, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Josh Winckowski, RHP John Schreiber, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Bryan Mata, LHP Brennan Bernardino
ANALYSIS: Boston’s incumbent closer, Kenley Jansen, seems like a prime trade candidate, so he’s out of the mix in this projection. Still, the Sox look to have a very strong bullpen group anchored by Martin, who was elite in 2023. In this version, Houck closes with Martin as the setup man, Whitlock, Winckowski and Schreiber providing late-inning right-handed options and Pivetta giving some length in the hybrid role in which he dominated for much of last summer. Many of those guys can cover multiple innings, which would surely be intriguing to Alex Cora.
Mata’s high-octane arm has intrigued the organization for a half-decade and it’s time for the club to make a decision, as he’s out of options and must either make the team or be waived, if healthy. Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten is in the same exact boat, but it’s hard to see the Sox carrying two rookie relievers who come with roster restrictions. Whoever pitches better in spring training will likely get a spot. I’ll guess Mata for now.
Bernardino cracks the roster as the only lefty, though a veteran addition can’t be ruled out, either. The Sox could use another proven weapon from the left side; Wandy Peralta and Matt Moore fit, if they’re looking.
This eight-man mix is padded by a lot of depth, which has clearly been an area of focus for Breslow in his first winter. From the right side, he has Isaiah Campbell, Criswell, Zack Kelly, Greg Weissert and maybe Zack Weiss in the mix for spots; all of them can be sent freely to the minors with options. Unless any of them are cut, Joe Jacques, Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy are the depth options from the left side with non-roster invitees Jorge Benítez and Cam Booser as dark horse guys. More bullpen candidates will be brought in on minor league deals as well.
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CATCHERS (2): C Connor Wong, C Reese McGuire
ANALYSIS: For the second straight year, the Red Sox are expected to proceed with the Wong-McGuire duo behind the plate and barring a shocking trade or injury, that’ll be the mix on Opening Day. Veteran addition Roberto Pérez will play a lot in spring training and in all likelihood, provide a veteran presence in Worcester in a role similar to the one Jorge Alfaro had a year ago. It’s a luxury to have a two-time Gold Glover as your third catcher.
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INFIELDERS (6): 1B Triston Casas, 2B Vaughn Grissom, SS Trevor Story, 3B Rafael Devers, INF Pablo Reyes, INF Enmanuel Valdez
ANALYSIS: With Grissom in tow, the starting infield is set with Devers and Story entrenched on the left side and Grissom joining 2023 standout Casas in the starting four. Reyes, Valdez and David Hamilton are the depth options on the 40-man; I’ll give Reyes and Valdez spots while noting the Red Sox could stand to add a veteran utility man who can step in at third base in case Devers gets hurt. For now, that guy on the roster is Dalbec; I wrote earlier this week that he’d finally get traded so I’ll stick with that and double down, predicting here that it’ll happen before Opening Day.
Valdez will likely get some starts at second base to protect Grissom against righties and gives Cora a bench bat after posting an .806 OPS against righties last year. Reyes is out of options, giving him an edge.
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OUTFIELDERS (5): LF/DH Masataka Yoshida, OF/DH Adam Duvall*, OF Jarren Duran, OF Tyler O’Neill, OF Rob Refsnyder
ANALYSIS: Boston’s outfield mix changed once already this winter with Breslow replacing the left-handed hitting Verdugo with the right-handed hitting O’Neill in a move that balanced out the roster a bit. The overhaul isn’t over. The Red Sox are actively shopping their outfield surplus, as we’ve reported, and even considering further additions.
As of today, Abreu is guaranteed a roster spot and is the likely starting right fielder but in this projection, I have him as a significant piece of the Luzardo trade with Miami. Because this is not a mock trade proposal piece, I’m not going to predict a full return for that deal. Talk about guaranteeing yourself to be wrong. But it’s safe to say teams are interested in Boston’s young outfielders and that the Red Sox are willing to part with them. Abreu, Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela are the most likely trade candidates among the group.
Here, I’m sticking with Duran, who will get plenty of run in center field again, and locking in Yoshida as a left field/designated hitter option, O’Neill as someone who can play anywhere and Refsnyder, who is under contract again and will get his fair share of opportunities against lefty starters. Rafaela, who comes with huge swing-and-miss questions and elite defense, is a candidate to start the year at Triple-A, so I’ll put him there.
A trade involving someone like Abreu sets the Red Sox up to add an outfielder to the group. While Teoscar Hernández is the hot name everyone’s talking about, I’m going to predict a cheaper, shorter-term reunion with Adam Duvall, who may once again get a one-year deal and had a great year last year. If Duvall can play first base (something he did early in his career) and give Casas some rest against certain lefties, he’ll be even more valuable. For a team with plenty of young outfielders, giving someone like Hernández a four-year deal just doesn’t seem like the most logical next step.
