The Red Sox ranked 25th out of 30 major league clubs in relief pitcher average fastball velocity (93.8 mph) in 2023, per Baseball Savant. That was down from an average of 94.9 mph in 2022.
Within the organization, there’s a feeling the bullpen could use more high-end velocity. Right-hander Bryan Mata — who will need to approach spring training with great urgency — has a chance to provide that in 2024.
“The stuff he has coming out of the bullpen, he’s upper-90s consistently,” said High-A Greenville manager Iggy Suarez, who managed Mata in the Arizona Fall League this offseason. “So I think that’s a pretty good weapon to have coming out of the bullpen.”
Mata’s situation will be one of the more interesting storylines entering spring training 2024 because he’s out of minor league options. He, therefore, must make Boston’s Opening Day roster (barring an IL stint) or else he’ll be designated for assignment and placed on waivers.
Baseball America ranked Mata, then 20 years old, Boston’s No. 1 pitching prospect heading into the 2020 season, then Boston added him to its 40-man roster in November 2020. Baseball America ranked him as high as the Red Sox’s No. 1 pitching prospect as recently as spring training 2023.
But he faced another injury-plagued season in ‘23. Nine months later, the publication no longer ranks him among Boston’s top 30 prospects, a list that includes nine Red Sox pitching prospects.
The potential obviously remains there. He topped out at 98.2 mph with his sinker and averaged 97.1 mph with his 15 four-seam fastballs Sept. 17 for Triple-A Worcester vs. Syracuse after returning from a four-month IL stint (right shoulder inflammation). He topped out at 97.6 mph Sept. 20 at Lehigh Valley. He has reached 100 mph since returning from Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entire 2021 season.
The Red Sox plan to use Mata, who will turn 25 on May 3, as a reliever and let him try to win a roster spot.
“To have movement and the run on the fastball that he has and the power slider (is big),” Suarez said. “When you see the slider being thrown to lefties and they’re swinging and missing and they’re getting hit sometimes by it, that’s some good stuff to see. We’ll see what happens going into spring training. Obviously we’d love to see him in the bullpen just with the stuff that he has and that we’ve seen. He’s been with us for quite some time. And we’ve seen it. We’re excited and hopefully it does work out.”
Mata struggled for Glendale in the Arizona Fall League, allowing eight earned runs in nine innings (nine outings). One really bad outing (4 runs allowed while recording just 2 outs Oct. 28) skewed his numbers a bit. But the Red Sox weren’t focused on his statistics there. They feel he learned a ton in Arizona.
“Just having him here is huge,” Suarez said Nov. 9, before Glendale’s final game. “I know he’s coming off of injury. And just getting himself back in the routine and back on the field I think was important and something big for him. The first couple of outings, all I would say is, ‘How are you feeling?’ And his answer would be the same thing. He was like, ‘I’m just pumped to be out on the field again.’”
So what different scenarios could play out for Mata during spring training? As mentioned above, he must make the 26-man roster, if healthy, or else be designated for assignment and placed on waivers. Any team then would be able to claim him. If he cleared waivers, Boston would outright him off the 40-man roster to Worcester.
Boston also could try to trade him late in spring training if he’s not going to make the club.
“There were a couple outings where it was kind of shaky a little bit,” Suarez said. “But for me, it was about him feeling 100% healthy. The look on his face, he wasn’t defeated. He was like, ‘Man, I feel 100%.’ It’s awesome.”
Zach Penrod’s stuff
MassLive recently wrote about left-handed pitcher Zach Penrod’s journey from an undrafted 26-year-old Indy Ball pitcher to signing with the Red Sox in August.
Penrod sat between 94-97 mph with his fastball when he went 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA (20 ⅔ innings, five earned runs) and 1.31 WHIP in four regular season starts for Greenville. He had the same velo while leading all Arizona Fall League starters in ERA (1.29) this offseason.
“That’s not even the piece for me that stands out with him because there’s frankly a lot of lefties who throw in the mid-90s,” Glendale Desert Dogs pitching coach David Anderson said. “His arsenal pairs together extremely well. He’s been really focusing on the slider but the changeup, he can use it vs. left (and) vs. right. Not all pitchers can do that. The line, the tunnel, the sell is right off the fastball. So it’s very difficult for pitch recognition. And it gives him two options. It opens up both sides of the plate. When he can move the fastball side to side, now we have fastball/slider to the glove side and fastball/changeup to the arm side. So he has two weapons on both sides of the plate. And he uses all of them vs. both sides so it makes it a very difficult at-bat.”
Penrod’s power changeup is between 85-89 mph.
Felix Cepeda enjoyed breakout season
Red Sox 23-year-old right-handed prospect Felix Cepeda participated in the Arizona Fall League after a successful 2023 regular season when he posted a 2.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 60 strikeouts, 29 walks and a .194 batting average against in 33 outings (53 innings) between Salem and Greenville.
“He’s an extremely intriguing guy,” Anderson said. “His throw is extremely clean. It’s explosive. It’s easy effort. And he’s a guy that I think the ceiling is pretty high for. He can spin the breaking ball really well. He’s got a really, really strong changeup off the heater that he doesn’t utilize as much yet but he’s learning how effective the pitch is. But everything works off the fastball for him. Very intriguing for me to see where he goes.”
Suarez added, “For him, the upper-90s fastball is some good stuff. Good power slider, hard slider. I experienced it in Greenville and have seen it here. For him to come here, it was well deserved. … To be able to put himself on the map after the year he’s had with us (is cool).”
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Suarez pointed out that Cepeda went a couple of years relatively “unnoticed” but still was able to keep that “hunger to perform and develop.”
His stuff vastly improved from 2022 to ‘23. He never pitched above the Florida Complex League level until 2022 when he had just a 6.20 ERA in 49 ⅓ innings at Low A.
“We talk to him, like ‘Wow, man. it’s a good thing to know you’re still wanting to do it,’” Suarez said. “I can only imagine how frustrating it was for him. He’s like, ‘Of course, but I think that’s what drives me.’ And you see it on the mound. For him, I always go back to that championship game.”
Cepeda recorded the final three outs in Game 2 (the clincher) of the South Atlantic League championship vs. Hudson Valley. With Greenville ahead 7-2 in the ninth, Suarez tried to give Cepeda a talk about staying calm and under control. Cepeda had replaced Penrod who had allowed a leadoff double.
“He cut me off when I gave him the baseball,” Suarez said. “He was like, ‘We’re about to end this thing right now.’ I was like, ‘All right. Let me just turn around and go walk back to the dugout.’ That’s the kind of the personality, that’s the kind of player he is. He’s intense. And it’s a good way to do it. It’s a good intensity.”
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