SAN ANTONIO — The Red Sox are in the market to add a front of the rotation starting pitcher this offseason and they have a number of position player prospects to use as trade chips to acquire one.
That prospect pool extends beyond the Big Four of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel, all top 25 prospects on Baseball America’s Top 100.
Boston prefers to hold onto all four but chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said they are not untouchable. Teams willing to trade frontline starters likely would view it as a non-starter in trade conversations if the Red Sox aren’t even willing to listen on the Big Four.
“We have a bunch of really good position players,” Breslow said at the GM Meetings. “That’s really, really exciting and rightfully a cause for optimism. At the same time, if we’re not able to prevent runs from scoring, it doesn’t matter how many we score ourselves.”
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Breslow added that the Red Sox are “constantly looking to balance out the position player/pitcher imbalance.”
The imbalance is clear looking at all top organizational prospect rankings. The high-end talent clearly favors the positional side. Boston has six position players but zero pitchers on Baseball America’s Top 100 list.
Baseball America ranks just four pitchers among Boston’s Top 15 prospects with the highest being Luis Perales at No. 8. The 21-year-old righty underwent Tommy John surgery in July.
Do the Red Sox have enough prospect talent without including the Big Four to land a top starter? Probably, but they would likely need to headline a package with one of their top young big league players such as Triston Casas or Jarren Duran.
White Sox 25-year-old lefty Garrett Crochet, for example, is one of the top names on the trade market and someone the Red Sox are expected to have interest in this offseason.
“I think the overall organizational health is strong,” Breslow said. “There are a number of position players we feel like are capable of contributing in the big leagues at some point. But we also can only put eight of them out there at one time. And there’s a ton of value in consolidating that talent in a small number of players so we’re running out eight kind of above-average players that are capable of winning a bunch of games. And so sometimes, that’s simply kind of repackaging position player value in a different shape that better fits our roster.”
Infield depth
The Red Sox have significant middle infield and outfield prospect depth. They have two shortstops — Mayer (No. 10) and Franklin Arias (No. 91) — on Baseball America’s Top 100 list.
The 22-year-old Campbell, who is ranked No. 24 overall, made starts at shortstop, center field, second base and third base — in the minors in 2024. His arm was considered a weakness entering the 2023 Draft. His throwing has improved but he’s more suited right now for second base than shortstop. He should compete for Boston’s starting second base job early next year and Breslow said, “We feel comfortable about putting him anywhere on the diamond.”
It’s difficult to imagine Campbell being traded. He and Anthony are the most untouchable of Boston’s Big Four.
Arias is 18 and finished 2024 at Low-A Salem. He’s certainly a prospect who would garner great interest because of his strong arm, growing range, offensive upside (.896 OPS, 36 extra-base hits in 87 games in ‘24) and the maturity he shows in his pregame preparation.
Mayer, the fourth overall pick in the 2021 draft, likely is the member of the Big Four who the Red Sox would be most willing to trade. An MLB scout described him as a “future five-tool All-Star potential” and a shortstop who could have “above-average impact on both sides of the ball.”
His ceiling is astronomical but there should be some concerns over his ability to stay healthy. Shoulder inflammation ended his 2023 season early and then a lumbar strain ended his 2024 season prematurely.
Does some level of concern exist within the organization that Mayer, who turns 22 in December, might be injury-prone? Have they asked him to alter his training program to try to prevent more injuries?
“I don’t know what the number of injuries is before someone becomes kind of injury-prone,” Breslow said. “At the same time, they (the injuries) seem to be unique. … At least there doesn’t seem like there was a direct relationship between them.
“I think instead of focusing on the injuries, I would say that whatever training he did got him to a place where he was an incredibly productive player for a bulk of the season,” Breslow added. “Had more at-bats this year obviously than he had previously. And as a young player in Double A, really opened eyes and turned heads. I think we saw the potential of the player that we thought we could get. So fully expect him to come into spring training completely healthy and continue to build on the progress he made this year.
Yoeilin Cespedes carries strong value. Baseball America ranks the 19-year-old shortstop/second baseman Boston’s No. 9 prospect. He was limited to 25 games in the Florida Complex League this past season because of a hamate bone injury that put him on the 60-day IL. He is expected to be ready for spring training.
Cespedes batted .319 with a .400 on-base percentage, .615 slugging percentage, 1.015 OPS, five homers, 10 doubles and one triple in his his limited 25-game sample size in the FCL. It would be no surprise to see him jump onto BA’s Top 100 list with a healthy season in 2025.
There are other interesting middle infield prospects — Nazzan Zanetello, Chase Meidroth and Mikey Romero —who don’t carry as much trade value but could be part of a package to land a starting pitcher.
BA has Zanetello ranked No. 12, Meidroth No. 13 and Romero No. 14 on its Red Sox Top 30 prospect list.
Zanetello batted just .156 in 78 games for Salem in his first professional season in 2024. But he’s still 19 and only one year removed from receiving a $3 million signing bonus after being the 50th overall pick.
Romero’s stock has dropped since Boston selected him in the first round (24th overall) in 2022 as back injuries have limited him. But the 20-year-old did show impressive power at times this past season, including a stretch of eight homers in 12 games for High-A Greenville before finishing the year with 16 games at Double-A Portland.
Meidroth, a 23-year-old fourth round pick in 2022, is an incredibly intriguing prospect because of his ability to get on base at such a high rate, which has led to the nickname “Force Field”. Meidroth made starts at shortstop, second base and third base in 2024 for Worcester where he had a .437 on-base percentage in 122 games (558 plate appearances). He walked 34 more times than he struck out (105 walks, 71 strikeouts). But teams might have concerns about his lack of extra-base power. He slugged just .401. There should be some questions about whether he can reach base at a high level in the majors because that ability might be lessened when pitchers try to expose his power limitations.
Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story is signed through 2027 and Ceddanne Rafaela showed he can certainly play shortstop every day in the majors, too. So middle infield certainly is a strength and an area the Red Sox can weaken in order to strengthen their pitching.
Outfield depth
The Red Sox already have three young outfielders — Rafaela, Duran and Wilyer Abreu — contributing and under team control long-term.
Duran should finish in the top 10 of the 2024 AL MVP voting after showing an impressive combination of power and speed out of the leadoff spot while also improving significantly defensively both in center field (17 defensive runs saved) and right field (six DRS).
Abreu won a Gold Glove as a rookie this past season. His name already has been floated around in trade speculation to acquire a starter.
Abreu seems expendable because the Red Sox have Anthony, the No. 1 prospect in baseball, right there knocking on the door. Anthony and Campbell, as mentioned above, are the two members of the Big Four most likely off limits.
Breslow has said nobody is considered untouchable on the big league roster and in the minors. Breslow included his young big league players when discussing what teams might ask for in a potential trade for a frontline starter. First baseman Triston Casas has been named in trade speculation to acquire a front of the rotation starter as well, although Breslow said those rumors are off-base.
“I think teams are recognizing some of the talent of our system, of our prospects and of our young big league players,” Breslow said. “So there should be an opportunity or there could be an opportunity. But at the same time, young starting pitching is such a desirable commodity that teams that have it tend to hold onto it. I don’t know anyone who would say they have a surplus of it.”
Right field prospect Braden Montgomery, who Boston selected 12th overall in 2024, already is ranked No. 59 on Baseball America’s Top 100 list. He has big raw power and what Baseball America describes as a “borderline 80-grade throwing arm.”
Clubs don’t often trade prospects within their first year in the system (before even playing a game in Montgomery’s case) but it has happened before. Back in 2015, the Diamondbacks traded Dansby Swanson to the Braves for starter Shelby Miller six months after drafting him first overall.
Jhostynxon Garcia and Allan Castro, both 21, are top 20 Red Sox prospects who wouldn’t headline a deal but could be complementary pieces. Garcia enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, leading all Red Sox minor leaguers with 23 homers combined between Salem, Greenville and Portland.
That said, both Garcia and Castro are Rule 5 Draft eligible. If the Red Sox don’t add them to their 40-man roster by Nov. 19 at 6 p.m., then they can’t be traded until after the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 11.
Justin Gonzales, a corner outfielder/first baseman, is another potential piece teams might have interest in. He’s only 17 and already 6-foot-5. He batted .320 with a .391 on-base percentage, .517 slugging percentage, .908 OPS, five home runs, 11 doubles and four triples in 47 games in the Dominican Summer League.
Catcher depth
The issue with trading Teel (beyond his high ceiling) is the lack of catching depth within the majors and minors. Connor Wong, Boston’s starting catcher, had a down year defensively in 2024. Improving his defense is Wong’s major focus this offseason, Breslow said. But Wong ultimately is more suited to be a No. 2 catcher.
Boston has just two catchers on its Baseball America Top 30 Red Sox prospect list — Teel and 19-year-old Johanfran Garcia (No. 17).
Garcia — the brother of Jhostynxon Garcia — has raw power and an impressive arm. He batted .385 (20-for-52) with a .467 on-base percentage, .596 slugging percentage, 1.063 OPS, two homers and five doubles in 14 games (60 plate appearances) for Salem before tearing ligaments in his knee May 1. He underwent season-ending surgery.
Brooks Brannon, a 20-year-old catcher, has received some attention with some strong at-bats in the Arizona Fall League and that should rise his value. He’s 20-for-60 (.333) with a .375 on-base percentage, .500 slugging percentage, .875 OPS, two homers and four doubles in 14 games for Mesa.
He was thought of highly coming out of high school. The Red Sox drafted Brannon in the ninth round (No. 279 overall) out of Randleman High in North Carolina in 2022, then signed him to a well-above slot value bonus of $712,500. The second highest ninth round bonus that year was $390,000 less. Only one draft pick in rounds 5-9 received a higher bonus than Brannon did.
Pitching depth
Would the Red Sox be willing to trade one of their prospect pitchers when they are so lacking in that area? As mentioned, the Red Sox have no Top 100 prospects who are pitchers.
They did already trade a few interesting young arms at the deadline, including 19-year-old Ovis Portes, who SoxProspects had ranked 29th in the system. He has reached the upper-90s with his fastball. Portes was traded for reliever Lucas Sims.
Boston also sent hard-throwing pitchers Ryan Zeferjahn and Yeferson Vargas to the Angels for reliever Luis García.
Breslow said the Red Sox are in a “significantly better place” with their pitching program than when he was hired one year ago. Boston drafted 14 pitchers in 20 rounds in this year’s draft, so the depth is beginning to increase. The pitching program is working with hurlers to increase velocity and break on secondary pitches.
The Red Sox have several interesting young arms — including Perales, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester, Payton Tolle, David Sandlin, Hunter Dobbins, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Dalvinson Reyes, Connelly Early, Jedixson Paez and Brandon Neely — despite this position as having as much high-end talent as their infield and outfield prospects.
Trading a pitcher as part of a package to acquire a top starter probably isn’t something Boston would shy away from.
“We’ve taken some deliberate steps to invest in our pitching development infrastructure over the past year. I think ultimately, eventually we will reap the benefits of that. In the meantime, we need to figure out how to fill that gap,” Breslow said.
Breslow has a much better understanding of his players — both in the majors and minors — one season into the job. That obviously helps when making trades. He’s able to evaluate which prospects he feels will be eventual true big leaguers and which ones the industry might be overhyping.
Then-president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski obviously made the right decisions on his own players when he acquired Chris Sale back at the 2016 Winter Meetings. Dombrowski held onto Rafael Devers over Yoan Moncada. Devers has gone on to enjoy a much better career than Moncada.
“I know a lot more about the organization,” Breslow said. “I think we know a lot more about our players. And so being better informed allows us to make better decisions. Ultimately, our goal is to deliver to the fans a team that is capable of winning the World Series every year. And we are approaching this offseason that way.”
