BOSTON — “Great things are now in store for the Red Sox. And while I’m sad that I won’t be watching them from the same chair, I will still be very proud.”
Those were Chaim Bloom’s words in a statement he released after Red Sox ownership fired him as chief baseball officer Sept. 14. He’s clearly confident that whoever replaces him in the head chair will inherit a talented core of young talent and that his fingerprints will be all over the next Red Sox playoff team.
Based on farm system and prospect rankings, Bloom left his successor in great shape. Baseball America ranked Boston fifth in its 2023 midseason organizational talent rankings. The publication also features four Red Sox prospects on its Top 100 prospect list.
There seems to be one real issue though. The system earned its high ranking largely because of its vast positional player talent, especially up the middle (at catcher, shortstop, second base and center field). But Boston still has a lack of high-end pitching talent, especially in the upper levels of the minors.
When Boston fired Bloom, ESPN’s Jeff Passan described the farm system as “Orioles-like … in terms of the position players.” He added on Sportsnet’s Blair and Barker, “They’ve got a lot of guys who are going to be dudes.”
Notice how he singled out position players? MassLive wrote about Boston’s top two dudes — shortstop Marcelo Mayer and center fielder Roman Anthony — last month. Baseball America ranks Mayer No. 15 and Anthony No. 19 on its Top 100 list. It also ranks center fielder Miguel Bleis No. 72 and 2023 first round pick Kyle Teel, a catcher, No. 85.
But where are all the dude pitchers? Do any exist? Most of the Red Sox’s top pitching talent is at Double-A and below. They have nobody ready to step in and help at the big leagues immediately (or almost immediately). And so the Red Sox will need to do a ton of work in free agency and trades this offseason to build their 2024 starting rotation and starting depth.
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Boston’s top two pitching prospects, Luis Perales and Wikelman Gonzalez, are expected to be added to the 40-man roster next month because they are Rule 5 Draft eligible. But Perales has not yet pitched beyond High A where he has made only eight starts. Gonzalez has not pitched above Double A where he has made 10 starts.
Shane Drohan, Boston’s No. 3 pitching prospect and No. 9 prospect overall, made it to Triple-A Worcester in May after posting a 1.32 ERA in six starts for Portland. But he struggled at Worcester with a 6.47 ERA in 21 outings (19 starts).
Command was an obvious issue for Drohan. The 24-year-old lefty has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s in addition to a plus changeup. He also improved the feel for his cutter as this past season progressed. But he averaged 6.4 walks per nine innings (89 innings, 63 walks) at Worcester.
Therein lies another problem with the top pitching talent in Boston’s farm system. Several young pitchers have dude potential but many of them struggle with command issues, calling their futures as starting pitchers into question. They must command the zone better or else they will end up as relievers.
Perales, a 20-year-old from Venezuela, has the system’s best fastball, according to Baseball America. He tops out at 98 mph with a four-seamer that rides up in the zone. But he averaged 5.0 walks per nine innings (89 ⅔ innings, 50 walks) in ‘23.
The 21-year-old Gonzalez, a native of Venezuela, has topped out at 99 mph with his fastball. His changeup with fade is his second best pitch and he also throws a curveball and cutter. But the 2023 Red Sox minor league Pitcher of the Year averaged 5.7 walks per nine innings (111 ⅓ innings, 70 walks).
Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham said about Drohan on MassLive’s Fenway Rundown podcast in late August: “He’s had some struggles at Triple A but I think that’s kind of part of the reason why we put him there. Because he was dominating Double A in a lot of ways. And Triple A, there’s a lot of big leaguers, close to big leaguers and veteran players who aren’t going to let you get away with the (same) mistakes.
“I think when he’s had success, it’s really about commanding the strike zone,” Abraham added. “Challenging in the zone, getting ahead of hitters. When he’s done that, he’s had good starts. When he’s fallen behind, when he’s walked guys, he’s struggled like most pitchers.”
Lack of command is an issue with so many young pitchers throughout the game, especially hard throwers. It’s not just a Red Sox problem obviously.
There’s a reason Brayan Bello separated himself and earned a spot in the Red Sox starting rotation when he was 23 years old. It’s all about command. He averaged only 2.6 walks per nine innings in 28 starts (157 innings) in ‘23.
“One thing I would probably have to do a little bit better in starting is not getting so deep in counts and walking guys, per se. That’s probably my one issue holding me back from that role,” said Red Sox No. 5 pitching prospect Chris Murphy, who Boston moved to the bullpen during the season.
Murphy knows he needs to cut down on walks to return to the starting rotation. He averaged 5.3 walks per nine innings at Worcester but did better as a reliever for Boston (3.2).
Most of the pitching talent in Boston’s farm system, as mentioned, isn’t right around the corner. Angel Bastardo, Yordanny Monegro and Hunter Dobbins all enjoyed breakout seasons and grabbed spots on Baseball America’s Red Sox Top 30 list after beginning 2023 unranked. All three pitchers have a lot of development remaining though.
Bastardo, a 21-year-old righty from Venezuela, has a fastball that ranges from 93-97 mph. His changeup has both run and fade. He finished the season at Double A where he made three starts.
Monegro, a 20-year-old righty from the Dominican Republic, has a fastball that reaches 97 mph. MLB Pipeline grades Monegro’s curveball 60 (above average) on the 20-80 grading scale. He finished the season at High A where he appeared in two games.
Dobbins, a hard-throwing 24-year-old, dropped to the eighth round in the 2021 Draft after Tommy John surgery caused him to miss his junior season at Texas Tech. He had heard from major league teams pre-injury that he might be a late first round draft pick or early second rounder in 2021 if he put together a strong junior year. Dobbins finished the season at Double A where he made 12 starts.
Catching should be a longterm strength
Boston is in a strong spot to have longterm sustainability at the catcher position after drafting Kyle Teel 14th overall out of Virginia in June. Teel earned three promotions in two months to finish the 2023 season at Double-A Portland. He reached base in almost half of his 114 plate appearances, posting a .482 on-base percentage.
He’s also an advanced defender. Chris Clegg, an evaluator for SoxProspects.com, posted a video of Teel on Sept. 1 throwing out a runner on a low-and-away pitch. Clegg wrote, “Teel posted a 1.9 pop time on this and had the guy out by 2 steps. No catcher should be able to post those pop times on a pitch low and away in the dirt. Excellent framer, excellent pop times. Teel is gonna be a major league catcher for a long time.”
Baseball America ranks four catchers among Boston’s top 30 prospects. In addition to Teel, it ranks Nathan Hickey 10th, Johanfran Garcia 23rd and Brooks Brannon 25th. Garcia is only 18 and one National League scout said that he “projects as an above-average skill-position player, supplying a 5-hole bat.”
Brannon is 19. Boston drafted him in the ninth round (No. 279 overall) out of Randleman High in North Carolina in 2022, then signed him to a well-above slot value bonus of $712,500. The second highest ninth round bonus that year was $390,000 less. Only one draft pick in rounds 5-9 received a higher bonus than Brannon did.
“It’s a very talented group we have throughout the system,” senior vice president of baseball operations Ben Crockett said in August about the catching group. “Obviously the addition of Teel is huge. And Garcia really taking a step forward in his development at an early age has been great to see.”
Red Sox have plenty of talent up the middle
The Red Sox have plenty of talented prospects up the middle (Teel at catcher, Mayer at shortstop Anthony, Bleis and Ceddanne Rafaela in center field). Rafaela has the ability to be a Gold Glover at both shortstop and center field.
Bloom went heavy on drafting high school shortstops/middle infielders, including Mayer, Mikey Romero, Nazzan Zanetello, Antonio Anderson and Nick Yorke.
Allan Castro, a 20-year-old from the Dominican, is a center field prospect to watch in 2024. He finished 2023 strong with a .283/.355./446/.801 line in his final 43 games after a promotion to High A.
Bleis missed the final four months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. But the Dominican native still just 19 and has five-tool potential.
Anthony became the first Red Sox teenage prospect to make it to Double A since Xander Bogaerts. He not only showed raw power but also an advanced approach. He walked in 17.5% of his plate appearances and posted a .403 on-base percentage.
The 19-year-old left-handed hitter did have some swing-and-miss against left-handers at one point in Greenville but he looks like he has the talent to be a future All-Star. The Athletic’s Keith Law recently wrote about Anthony, “He might be the biggest breakout prospect in all of the minors.” Law added, “The Sox deserve credit for taking what was already a good swing and turning it into one of the best in the minors, and maybe the best I’ve seen in person this year.”
Rafaela could compete for the starting second base job in 2024 despite just 23 starts there in pro ball. But he must improve his plate discipline to reach his full offensive potential. He had a 38.8% chase percentage and struck out in 31.5% of his plate appearances in 28 games with Boston after a late-season promotion.
Red Sox have put a focus on swing decisions, pitch selection
The Red Sox have placed a major focus on pitch selection and swing decisions.
“Swing decision training is something that we’re really hammering,” assistant GM Eddie Romero said in July.
Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu showed an advanced ability to control the strike zone as rookies. Casas finished in the 86th percentile among major league hitters in chase percentage (22.1%). Abreu had a strong chase rate of 25.1% after his promotion in late August.
Bloom put a focus the past two years on drafting players who make contact and don’t often chase bad pitches. He acquired Abreu in the Christian Vázquez trade at the 2022 trade deadline.
Chase Meidroth is one of those types of hitters he drafted. The 22-year-old second baseman, a 2022 fourth round draft pick, walked in 16.2% of his plate appearances while posting a .408 on-base percentage combined between Portland (91 games) and Greenville (20 games) in ‘23.
Teenage shortstop prospect Yoeilin Cespedes has the chance to become special as he improves his plate discipline. The right-handed hitter, who turned 18 on Sept. 8, batted .346 with a .392 on-base percentage, .560 slugging percentage, .952 OPS, six homers, 15 doubles, four triples, 37 runs, 38 RBIs, 14 walks and 24 strikeouts in 46 games in the DSL.
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