Spring training begins next week and the Red Sox have not addressed what chief baseball officer Craig Breslow described at the beginning of this offseason as “a priority.”
Breslow called Boston’s lineup “imbalanced” with more left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters. He expressed the importance of replacing free agent right-handed hitter Tyler O’Neill’s 31-home run production.
“Whether it’s Tyler or someone else, replacing that type of production in the middle of the lineup is going to be a priority,” Breslow said Sept. 30.
“I think the right-handed power hitter that can pop 30 and change a game with one swing is definitely a pretty desirable asset here,” he added.
O’Neill signed with the AL East rival Baltimore Orioles on Dec. 7 and the Red Sox still have not replaced his power.
On paper, Breslow has improved the pitching staff quite a bit. The Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet (a potential ace) and signed Walker Buehler ($21.05 million guaranteed), Aroldis Chapman ($10.75 million), Patrick Sandoval ($18.25 million) and Justin Wilson ($2.25 million).
But the Red Sox have committed no guaranteed money to position players as their 2025 payroll, as of now, sits well below the $241 million competitive balance tax base threshold.
The lineup is worse on paper than it was last year.
Sure, there’s a chance the lineup will be better with Triston Casas and Trevor Story back after they spent much of 2024 on the 60-day injured list.
Red Sox first basemen combined for a .731 OPS last year. Their shortstops combined for a .761 OPS and their second basemen combined for a .532 OPS.
You’d expect the production to improve at each position — and as a result, some of O’Neill’s middle of the power production also would be replaced.
But we’ve seen in recent years what happens when the Red Sox bank on becoming better by simply relying on an uptick in production from players they already have on the roster.
Breslow said adding starting pitching was a priority at the beginning of the 2023-24 offseason. Boston ended up doing little that offseason to improve the staff. They signed free agent Luis Giolito. But the 2024 Opening Day consisted of all returning players from the 2023 team after Giolito underwent season-ending elbow surgery during spring training.
Boston starters posted a 33-28 record and 3.63 ERA in the first half. But a lack of depth and no proven frontline starter caused regression in the second half (14-23, 4.06 ERA). Boston finally addressed the issue this offseason with the additions of Crochet and Buehler.
Are the Red Sox now banking too much of an uptick offensively from internal candidates (young players and returning injured players) instead of signing a proven veteran like Alex Bregman? Bregman, Randal Grichuk and Pete Alonso are the top right-handed hitters remaining in free agency.
The offseason is not over yet. It won’t be until Opening Day on March 27 in Texas. But Boston so far has seemed unwilling to spend money to address an area Breslow described as a priority,
Can they really pencil in Story to stay healthy and give them right-handed production after injuries have limited him to just 163 games during his three seasons with Boston? Then can they bank on him being a productive hitter even if he does stay healthy? He has a .693 OPS in 670 plate appearances with the Red Sox.
Can Boston really count on Campbell or Vaughn Grissom to improve the dreadful second base production significantly while also replacing some of O’Neill’s right-handed pop?
Baseball America ranks the 22-year-old Campbell MLB’s No. 4 prospect. But MassLive recently showed how difficult the transition from Triple A to the majors can be for rookies, including top prospects. Rookies last year batted .233 with a .298 on-base percentage and .371 slugging percentage in 27,746 plate appearances.
Grissom has spent this offseason building strength after spending significant time on the IL with injuries to both hamstrings last season. The second 24-year-old second baseman has potential but he has posted a 0.0 bWAR and .654 OPS in 95 major leagues.
Casas, a left-handed hitter, was limited to 63 games last year because of torn cartilage in the rib cage on his right side. He should improve Boston’s first base production quite a bit. But he also has missed time each of the past three seasons due to injuries. Right shoulder inflammation ended his 2023 season prematurely. He also was missed from May 17 to July 12, 2022 due to an ankle injury. Should there be concern about him being able to stay on the field?
Breslow has mentioned the importance of getting more production against left-handed pitching out of right-handed hitting Ceddanne Rafaela who had reverse splits last year. He batted just .211 with a .258 on-base percentage, .345 slugging percentage and .603 OPS in 152 plate appearances against lefties.
Rafaela might hit better vs. lefties in ‘25. Story might stay healthy and produce. It’s also possible Campbell and/or Roman Anthony will play like Rookie of the Year candidates.
But the Red Sox again seem to be relying on uncertainties instead of spending money to address an area they described as a priority.
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