We made our predictions for Patriots free agents on the offensive side of the ball on Wednesday.
Now it’s the defense’s turn.
Jerod Mayo and company have a dozen defensive players set to hit the open market next week and there are a number of intriguing names on the list, including Josh Uche. So who stays and who goes?
Here are predictions for all 12 of New England’s defensive free agents:
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Myles Bryant (Age: 26)
2023 AAV: $2.63 million
Bill Belichick greatly valued Bryant’s versatility in the Patriots secondary. It’s a safe bet that Mayo — who had a front row seat to the safety’s development — feels the same way. An undrafted free agent, Bryant told MassLive in January that he hoped to spend the majority of his career in New England. Few places around the league feel like a better fit.
Prediction: Bryant re-signs a solid deal in New England.
Cody Davis (34)
2023 AAV: $2.2 million
Though Davis is very well-respected in the Patriots locker room, it be stunning if Mayo rostered as many core special teamers as Belichick. Davis turns 35 in June and tore his ACL in 2022, so those are working against him in a potential roster crunch.
Prediction: Davis signs elsewhere.
Lawrence Guy (33)
2023 AAV: $2.88 million
A stalwart on the defensive line for six seasons in New England, it’ll be fascinating to see what Guy prioritizes in his next (and perhaps final) contract: Maxing out his bank account or chasing a ring? Either way, he won’t find that with the Patriots in 2024.
Prediction: Guy signs elsewhere.
J.C. Jackson (28)
2023 AAV: $16.5 million
With a promising career thrown off track by injuries and mental health issues, Jackson’s No. 1 priority must be getting healthy this offseason. Hopefully everything else falls into place for him after that.
Prediction: Jackson signs elsewhere.
Anfernee Jennings (26)
2023 AAV: $1.15 million
When Matthew Judon went down in October, Jennings’ opportunity finally arrived. The defensive lineman ran with it. Jennings stoned the run, setting a strong edge and registering 14 tackles for loss. It may have been a lost season for the 4-13 Patriots, but it wasn’t for Jennings.
Prediction: Jennings re-signs in New England.
Jalen Mills (29)
2023 AAV: $3.75 million
As Mills heads towards the open market, he’s eyeing one thing in particular.
“Free agency? I’m looking for an opportunity,” Mills told MassLive’s Mark Daniels. “An opportunity where I’m able to come in and be a starter and help a team have a dominant defense and win some football games.
“I think at the end of the day, it’s all about the opportunity of being a starter. (In 2023), I had to be a role player for the first time in my career. I feel like with the opportunities that I’ve gotten I’ve showed that I am a starter in this league at safety.”
With Jabrill Peppers under contract and Kyle Dugger transition tagged, Mills is not going to find that in New England.
Prediction: Mills signs elsewhere.
Adrian Phillips (31)
2023 AAV: $4.25 million
A productive player early in his Patriots tenure, Phillips saw his role drastically reduced last season and didn’t appear to have the same speed. He could still be a useful depth piece in a thinner secondary, but there’s a reason the veteran wound up as a cap casualty in Foxborough.
Prediction: Phillips signs elsewhere.
Josh Uche (25)
2023 AAV: $1.35 million
Does anybody on this list have a more fascinating free agent market than Uche?
The edge rusher flashed with 11.5 sacks in 2022 and Belichick trusted him enough to serve as the defensive play caller on third downs, but Uche struggled to replicate his pass rush last season and was only on the field for 29% of the defensive snaps — despite Judon’s season-ending injury.
Does somebody overpay for the potential? Or does Uche wind up back in New England?
Prediction: Uche re-signs on a modest deal.
Mack Wilson (26)
2023 AAV: $1.6 million
The speedy linebacker built a ton of momentum down the stretch last season. Wilson has finally found a home and a fit in New England. The guess here is that he’ll continue to prioritize playing in a defense that’s working for him.
Prediction: Wilson re-signs in New England.
Terez Hall RFA (27)
2023 AAV: $940K
Injuries have plagued the linebacker’s time in New England. At this point, it’s probably beneficial for both sides to start fresh.
Prediction: Hall signs elsewhere.
Christian Elliss ERFA (25)
2023 AAV: $788K
An exclusive rights free agent, the Patriots just need to tender Ellis a one-year contract at the league minimum salary to retain him. When the special teams ace hit waivers last season, six teams put in a claim on Elliss, and the Eagles were hoping to bring him back, too. It makes sense to keep him in the fold at such a low price.
Prediction: The Patriots tender Elliss.
Alex Austin ERFA (22)
2023 AAV: $750K
Same exclusive rights free agent story for Austin, so why wouldn’t the team bring the young corner back? Thrown into the fire, Austin played 62% of the defensive snaps in the final five games and held his own. He seems like a slam dunk to be back at such a low price.
Prediction: The Patriots tender Austin.
BONUS: Kyle Dugger (27)
2024 tender: $13.82M
No, Dugger isn’t going to be an unrestricted free agent because of the transition tag, but we’re still looking into the crystal ball for him anyway. Though Mayo tagged the safety, in the team’s announcement, he also released a statement expressing optimism that the move was simply a placeholder.
“We value players with high character and chose to use the transition designation to give both sides more time to try to reach a long-term agreement, which is our goal with Kyle,” Mayo said.
Prediction: The two sides do come to a long-term agreement and Dugger is in Foxborough for the foreseeable future.
