No, it’s not necessarily the premise of a Netflix movie, per se. But humanity could be faced with an asteroid hitting Earth in the near future — depending on what you consider “near.”
In a recent edition of Icarus, the International Journal of Solar System Studies, NASA scientists monitoring the findings of its OSIRIS-REx spacecraft suggest that Bennu, an asteroid bigger than the Empire State Building and makes a close approach to Earth every six years, according to NASA, has a chance of hitting Earth in the future.
Found in 1999, the agency considers the asteroid’s impact on Earth to be potentially hazardous. Bennu likely broke off from a much larger asteroid about 700 million to 2 billion years ago, a reminder of the solar system’s early years with much of its current composition already intact during the last 10 million years.
OSIRIS-REx descended onto the asteroid on Oct. 20, 2020, to collect samples and information about Bennu, NASA said. Images of the asteroid taken by the spacecraft beamed back to NASA. Samples were stored within the spacecraft’s sample return capsule. The spacecraft ejected from Bennu on May 10, 2021, due to drop samples to Earth on Sept. 24, 2023, before continuing its mission to explore other asteroids.
Findings made by OSIRIS-REx’s team in Icarus suggested that Bennu has a 0.037%, or a 1 in 2,700, chance of hitting Earth on Sept. 24, 2182. Before that day, the asteroid is expected to fly close enough to Earth in 2135 to be pulled toward the planet, increasing the odds that it could hit Earth 50 years later.
At roughly 500 meters in length, the asteroid’s impact on Earth would release 1,200 megatons of energy, 24 times larger than the most powerful nuclear weapons, according to IFLScience.com. Despite the risk potential, Bennu dwarfs the size of the asteroid that caused the Chixilub crater in Mexico — the asteroid that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, according to Science.com.
Is Bennu’s fate going to be to collide with Earth? Perhaps not. NASA believes the asteroid could burn up in the sun or is “most likely to hit Venus.”
