Back home after a two-and-a-half-week stay in Fort Myers — with another return trip planned soon — here are five thoughts about what I saw and heard during my first stay:
1) The atmosphere is different.
Scoff all you want about the talk of a “culture change,” and increasing the competition level, but there is a more lively dynamic at Fenway South this spring.
It can be seen in the clubhouse, with players checking the posted charts that tabulate dropped pitches or first-pitch strikes thrown. You can hear it in during drills all over the complex, with teammates razzing some teammates and cheering on others. But mostly, it’s a vibe — there’s an unmistakeable feel of increased energy and investment.
Some of that may stem from the talk that that began last September, when Alex Cora first broached the topic of upping competition and planning for more drills and work in jetBlue Park, the better to replicate the playing conditions of Fenway Park.
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Some credit is due to Ramon Vazquez, since the bench coach is nominally in charge of planning out spring training and scheduling the work. But most of it belongs to the players, who have embraced the task at hand.
Admittedly, some of this may be solely about pride. After two last place finishes, Red Sox players are sick of losing and are willing to buy in to a new program, offered by a new regime (chief baseball officer, pitching coach, director of pitching).
Will this translate into tangible improvement on the field once the season begins? That’s tough to say. We’ll likely be left with the old chicken-and-egg argument if the team starts the year well, trying to determine if the better performance is the result of improved chemistry — or vice versa.
But for now, it’s encouraging to witness. And if nothing else, it’s a start.
2) The new pitching program has taken hold, too.
Obviously, it’s early. We’re only a week into Grapefruit League play, so labeling this an unqualified success is premature — to say the least.
But a handful of pitchers have gone out of their way to praise the program and the amount of detail it offers. Those positive reviews have come from returning young veterans like Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford, as well as a veteran like Lucas Giolito.
Giolito has a lot of context, too, having been in five other organizations, including three last season alone. Giolito was impressed with the proposed program during some Zoom calls last winter when the Red Sox were recruiting him during free agency, and now that he’s spent a few weeks in camp, is even more supportive of what the Sox are trying to do.
“The communication level is extremely high,” Giolito said on a recent episode of MassLive’s Fenway Rundown. “If you want to go in and look at all the skeletons and biomechanics and study analytics, there are guides for that. If you prefer not to, then maybe it’s communicated to (Andrew) Bailey and then he comes to us with whatever suggestion. So it really can be catered to every individual player because we’re all unique and different.”
Again, none of this means that the Red Sox are going to have one of the game’s elite pitching staffs. That will be dependent on execution and consistency. But what is clear is that the pitchers, both rookies and veterans, are being given the necessary data and instruction to help them compete at the highest level.
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It will likely take a while for this manifest itself at the major league level, as the real goal here is to improve the development of young pitchers throughout the minor league system. But if there’s some impact on the major league staff this season, that would be welcome, too.
3) Roman Anthony is mature well beyond his years.
Anthony is still just 19 years old, but you would never know it. Less than two years removed from high school, the organization’s top outfield prospect comes across as remarkably poised and self-assured, without seeming at all cocky.
Over the weekend, Anthony was approached by a group of reporters after he made his major league spring training debut. He answered all the questions thoughtfully, made sure to credit teammates for making him feel comfortable and said he hoped he would get more opportunities this spring.
Sometimes, we measure readiness and potential by what we witness on the field. Anthony profiles as an outfielder with plus-power and a strong hit tool, but we forget about makeup. I’ve had three conversations with him in the last two months, and each time, he’s managed to insert some variation of “when we win a World Series in Boston,” while looking ahead.
That sort of team-first approach and focus is rare, and doubly so for someone who is still a teenager.
4) Rafael Devers looks poised to go oppo a lot
Devers has two homers in games this spring, and both have been hit out to left. But it’s not just a small sample size in games; Devers has consistently worked to stay back on pitches and swat them the other way, even in batting practice. Some of it may have to do with an adjustment with his hands, which are lower and better positioned to get to the ball quicker.
The best lefty hitters in recent Red Sox history — from Fred Lynn to Wade Boggs to Mo Vaughn to David Ortiz — have learned too use Fenway to their own advantage by hitting the ball to the opposite field.
In Devers’ case, two of his three best full seasons (2019 and 2022) with the Red Sox have come when he’s had spikes in balls hit the other way. If he can carry this approach over to the regular season, he could have his first 40-homer season.
5) Maybe ownership shouldn’t talk after all.
I’ve been among those covering the team who’s voiced disappointment that principal owner John Henry hasn’t made himself available in a press conference setting for the past four years. To me, that’s a dereliction of duty for someone who has often compared owning the Red Sox to running a public trust.
Henry’s explanation, such as it is, is that he only gets himself in trouble when he speaks about the team, which seems an odd defense for someone who’s a self-made billionaire businessman. He can oversees an international conglomerate, but he can’t offer some public thoughts about his team’s payroll?
But now, I’m starting to see the light. It’s not just Henry who’s guilty of tripping over himself when it comes to public explanations. Team president and CEO Sam Kennedy last month said fans who question the team’s financial commitment are “liars,” then, on an appearance on WEEI Radio earlier this week from Fort Myers, followed down the path laid out by Cubs owner Tom Ricketts and Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. by insisting baseball isn’t a profitable venture.
Owning an MLB franchise, Kennedy told The Greg Hill Show, is “about a break-even industry.”
Say again?
The Red Sox routinely, even after last-place seasons, attract more than 2.5 million fans annually to Fenway. They draw in excess of $60 million in national media money each season, and NESN is even more profitable, according to multiple industry sources. Then add in lucrative marketing deals (Mass Mutual uniform patches are good for $17 million per year), local radio rights and other sponsorship income, and even allowing for the money they contribute to revenue sharing, the Red Sox are, in fact, profitable.
And even if they weren’t operating with a huge profit margin, the franchise is, conservatively speaking, worth $4 billion after being bought for $700 million 22 years ago. There’s nothing “break-even” about an investment that’s increased almost six-fold in the last two decades.
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The Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles may compete in the same division, but in many ways, they’re on completely different playing fields.
The Red Sox operate in a Top 10 media market while Baltimore is in MLB’s bottom 10 when it comes to market size. On the field, the Orioles won 101 games last year, while the Red Sox finished with just 78 victories. And while the Red Sox’ minor league system is improving, it’s currently no match to that of the Orioles, who are acclaimed to have the best talent pipeline in the sport.
The teams are not apples-to-apples, then. The Orioles are far ahead competitively, with a legitimate chance to win their first World Series since 1983. The Red Sox, by contrast, are widely expected to finish last in the division. The teams are at opposite ends of the competitive yardstick; in short, the Orioles have arrived at “win-now” mode while the Red Sox are still building.
Still, it’s noteworthy that the O’s, in need of a front-of-the-rotation leader, went all-in, making a trade for Corbin Burnes. Burnes is a free agent after the 2024 season, and because he’s represented by Scott Boras, who has a habit of guiding his clients to free agency to maximize their value, it’s unlikely that the O’s will extend Burnes beforehand, or, for that matter, win a bidding war for him next winter.
This deal was done with the knowledge that it was a one-year rental, quite a gamble by the Orioles. But one they felt positioned to take.
“He changes the whole complexion of the staff,” said manager Brandon Hyde of his new No. 1 starter.
At Ed Smith Stadium Saturday in Sarasota, there was a palpable excitement. Part of it was because this was the Orioles’ spring home opener, and coming off a division championship, it was only natural to have big expectations for the 2024 season.
But the presence of Burnes elevated the atmosphere. True No. 1 starters are rare — you could argue that there are fewer than a dozen throughout the game. But Burnes undoubtedly qualifies. Since the 2020 season, he ranks first among all starters in ERA (2.86), first in swing-and-miss percentage (33.7 percent), first in strikeouts (765) and fifth in innings pitched (622.1).
You could feel the anticipation in the ballpark as Burnes warmed up, and again as he took the mound.
The Orioles had made their investment and the fans treated the veteran righthander as a conquering hero.
“For me, it signals a belief in our roster,” said Orioles GM Mike Elias. “This is a player we only have under contract for one year, so it’s very clearly a 2024 investment. We paid a heavy price, as we should have. We did it because an impact starting pitcher was the right addition for this team.”
Elias felt the time was now to make this move.
“It was pretty simply, honestly. We wanted to upgrade our rotation, like any team does,” said Elias. “But with our farm system and the type of contracts that impact starting pitchers get, they tend to go to very large market teams, as free agents. I knew we would be more equipped for the asking price on the trade front with our farm system.”
The list of potential targets was short, and included two starters — Chris Sale and Tyler Glasnow — from within the division. Elias figured that the Red Sox and Rays, respectively, wouldn’t deal either within the AL East, so he zeroed in on Burnes. It cost him pitching prospect DL Hall and young infielder Joey Ortiz, but he believes it was worth it.
Again, the Orioles are pennant contenders, and the Red Sox most assuredly are not. For that matter, Jordan Montgomery is not Corbin Burnes, who has a Cy Young Award to his credit and three other Top 10 finishes.
But imagine what sort of difference someone like Montgomery could make to the fortunes of the Red Sox in 2024 and beyond. The lefty wouldn’t move the needle as dramatically as Burnes has in Baltimore. He would, however, inch the Red Sox closer to respectability for this season, and give them another experienced, dependable innings-eater to pair with Giolito and anchor the rotation going forward — until such time that Craig Breslow’s pitching development program can produce top starters internally.
And imagine the reaction of the fan base, suddenly convinced that ownership is committed to winning — all without having to dip into the’s team prospect inventory, or surrendering draft pick compensation.
