FORT MYERS, Fla. — No, it is not your imagination: Major League Baseball is undergoing an epidemic of injuries.
They’re everywhere. Some are back injuries, some are shoulder issues. But the vast majority of them are, unsurprisingly, elbow-related.
You can not only put together an All-Star staff of starters who will miss the start — in some cases, all of — the season. How would you like a (healthy) rotation of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lucas Giolito, Kyle Bradish, Shane McClanahan, Lance McCullers Jr., Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw, Sandy Alcantara, Brandon Woodruff, and Kodai Senga?
Did I say an All-Star staff, as in single? Try three rotations worth. And we still have almost two weeks before getting to the starting line, more than enough time for one or several more pitchers to “feel something grab” on a pitch that will sideline them for weeks, months or the remainder of the season and some of the next.
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This week, an executive with one major league club, noting the seemingly endless list of physical setbacks, observed: “We’re in a crisis in this industry. I’m not sure enough people recognize that, but we are. You’re nothing without starting pitching, and we don’t have nearly enough of it.”
Many of those pitchers listed above as absolutely essential to their team’s success. It’s impossible, for instance, to regard the Yankees as true pennant contenders without Cole in their rotation for several months. The same goes for several others on the list.
There is no shortage of theories as to why this has become an epidemic, among them: the game’s infatuation with velocity; the prevalence of the “sweeper”; the pitch clock; and the now common practice of throwing almost year-round.
Plenty of theories, yes, but precious little in the way of solutions.
“I’ve been more consumed by probably the individual events here (to Giolito) than having had a chance to take a step back and look at the data across the league,” said Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. “It does seem like history has shown us that spring training is always a time for injuries to spike, with more intensity and volume introduced into the day-to-day. Plus, there are probably guys that were not as active in the offseason and things manifest when they get here.
“I think time will tell. Certainly, injuries have ticked up. I think training methods have evolved faster than soft tissue. So we probably are pushing the limits of what the human body is capable of. And whether this is a moment in time or this is indicative of a bigger problem, I think remains to be seen. But obviously, it’s a challenge and it’s a reality that we have to face, particularly on the pitching side of things. There’s inherent risk in throwing a baseball and we need to appreciate that.”
Breslow’s admission that the sport is asking more of players ever before has to play a part in the alarming number of blown-out elbows and damaged shoulders. Only 16 years ago, the average fastball velocity was a tick over 91 mph; today, such pitchers run the risk of being labeled junkballers. Quality starters routinely throwing 95 mph or more, and many relievers comfortably sit in the upper 90s.
At some point, something has to give. Too often, it’s the ulnar collateral ligament.
“I think in all likelihood the answer is ‘probably,’ ” Breslow responded when asked about the relationship between improved velocity and the uptick in arm injuries. “A fairly strong correlation exists between velocity and injury risk. It’s also important, though, to outline that players assume risk in everything that they do and as long as the risk-reward calculus favors the reward, players are going to be willing to continue to push.
“Velocity is not only strongly correlated to injury risk, but also, major league success. And so when players and teams are chasing wins, players are willing to push. It’s really hard to disincentivize the strongest (tool) that we have to getting major league hitters out. I don’t know what the solution is, but I don’t think it’s going to be self-imposed. I think maybe it will be re-establishing the prominence of the starting pitchers or roster limits. I know that these are all conversations that are going on, but I don’t know that there’s a perfect solution.”
All of this is happening at a time when teams are investing more and more resources to sports science. Teams have bigger training and medical staffs than ever. Nutrition is emphasized. Data is collected. There are massage therapists and strength coaches and biomechanic experts employed, and yet players — pitchers in particular — are missing more time to injury than they ever have.
How is that?
Breslow had an interesting response, which is almost anthropological.
“One might argue that there’s a survivorship component at play,” he said, “in that players who didn’t have the talent to allow their careers to take them beyond the minor leagues are now physically able to get (further) based on new training methods and more aggressive implementation of programming and routines. And so it’s something else that’s kind of curbing their careers.
“This isn’t intended to be a callous statement, but not having enough talent was one way of not making it to the big leagues; getting hurt is another way of not making it to the big leagues. That comes with a whole host of considerations But I do think that there’s something to the idea that developments in sports medicine and training have allowed us to eek more talent out of players. As a result, you might be taking on a greater injury risk. But that’s still a more desirable tradeoff for some. Not all, but some.”
Whatever the reasons behind the steady increase of pitching injuries, teams now enter spring training with the notion that they are fighting a war of attrition. It’s as though teams acknowledge that they will suffer serious injuries to their pitching staff — the trick is to have fewer than the competition.
There’s the tendency to frame this injury glut as a competitive issue — whichever team has the fewest stands the better chance of standing at the end. But there’s also a consumer satisfaction element to it, too. The game is losing some of its biggest stars — Verlander, deGrom, Scherzer and Cole would all qualify for inclusion on MLB’s Top 10 starter list were they healthy.
What happens to a sport that loses some of its biggest attractions, especially when there seems to be no obvious solution to the trend? Imagine if injuries struck, say, NFL quarterbacks as frequently as they do pitchers, and with just as harmful consequences to their teams.
“Fans want to see the best players on the field as often as possible,” said Breslow. “That’s definitely something we need to be mindful of…What’s obviously great for baseball is when its most prominent players are on the field.”
Still, as Breslow pointed out, there’s vicious circle at work here. Stars become stars because they have elite stuff and high strikeout ratres. But precisely because of those traits, they put themselves in danger of incurring injury.
“They became stars because of that stuff,” he said. “So if, all of a sudden, we try to skew the equation toward health, is it as exciting to watch the guy who’s 88-91 mph and doesn’t get a ton of swing-and-miss and doesn’t light up the radar gun? Maybe. But I’m not sure that’s a given.”
In the meantime, teams have little choice but to choose volume and have more depth options, capable of withstanding the almost inevitable losses that must be anticipated because of injuries.
“We brought in Giolito and were confident in (getting) 170-180 innings that he has posted pretty consistently over time,” said Breslow. “Obviously, we now need to find those somewhere else. Whether that falls on a single pitcher who emerges as a bonafide starter or whether we have to be creative and amass additional bulk and depth — we have to be willing to pursue all of those paths.
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There’s a human element to baseball injuries that often goes unreported. Take Rob Refsnyder for instance.
Refsynder suffered a displaced fracture of his left pinkie toe earlier in the week, sending him to the IL midway through spring training.
It’s expected that Refsnyder will miss somewhere between four and six weeks, and he could be back by mid- to late-April. That’s hardly a career-altering setback.
And yet, for Refsnyder, a career journeyman who has spent time with six different organizations over eight seasons in the big leagues, the setback means he won’t be active for Opening Day March 28 in Seattle. That matters to him.
“This is just a stupid, weird one. It just sucks, honestly,” said Refsnyder of both the injury and the timing. “You dedicate so much time and energy in the offseason. I was feeling good this spring, was putting together some good at-bats. It will be really tough to start back from zero and try to get those feelings again. Spring training is all about that — get some good feels, tinkering with some mechanics, some other cues. It’s just a friggin’ science experiment, so when it feels like it’s coming together, it’s nice, going into the season.
“Opening Day is a special thing. To be able to see a lot of the guys that you’re close with and work out with, and see them go through struggles and trials… Opening Day is just a special thing for baseball players. It would be great to be able to travel (with the team) and see those guys experience Opening Day. You just don’t know how many Opening Days you have. Especially for me, that would be great. But I haven’t really talked about to them about it. It would be cool — but whatever can get me back (on the field) sooner, whether that’s staying here (in Fort Myers) or going up to Boston. We’ll have to wait and see.”
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Masataka Yoshida isn’t a stranger to the DH spot. He filled that role some while in Japan and last season, his first with the Red Sox, he served as the designated hitter for almost a quarter of the Red Sox’ games.
But this year, he will be the team’s primary DH is expected to get more than 100 starts there.
Being a DH can be tricky proposition. Some players never get comfortable in the role, while other struggle to find the proper routine. David Ortiz, arguably the greatest DH of all time, has often said the job is not for everyone.
Yoshida is currently in the process of finding the regimen that works best for him.
“I have some experience,” said Yoshida. “I have my routine. it’s not like I’m always staying in the dugout. I’ll try to get out on the field, see the lights, see what the field is like, (checking) on the weather and wind and things like that. I’m trying to stay active, move around. That’s kind of my routine.”
One thing DHs have working in their favor is time. Without any defensive responsibilities, they have the opportunity to review video in between at-bats — both to monitor their own swing and evaluate the opposing pitcher’s repertoire or tendencies.
“That wasn’t something that we had in Japan,” said Yoshida. “(Having the ability to watch video) was something new and I took advantage of that last year. It’s obviously better to have it than not having access, so it’s helped me a lot.”
While some designated hitters fret that they have too much down time and struggle to feel connected to the action in-game, Yoshida hasn’t experienced that — yet, at least.
“I try to stay engaged and live in the moment,” said Yoshida. “Baseball is about living in the moment.”
