Pitchers and catchers don’t report for another three weeks, and that’s time enough for the Red Sox to still make some signings and/or trades.
But given how this winter has gone, coupled with the comments from ownership and upper management last week, it seems highly unlikely that the team will do anything more in the way of a consequential move. Anything added in late January or February is likely to be a complementary move rather than a significant acquisiution.
With that in mind, here’s a first guess at the Opening Day roster:
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Catchers (2): Connor Wong, Reese McGuire.
In December, the Red Sox added Roberto Perez, who can serve as a nice insurance policy at Triple A Worcester. But it’s hard to envision Perez overtaking McGuire and making the Opening Day roster.
Infielders (6): Triston Casas, Vaughn Grissom, Trevor Story, Rafael Devers, Pablo Reyes, Bobby Dalbec
The starting infield is set, with, from third to first, Devers, Story, Grissom and Casas in place. Reyes will be the backup at both short and second. The team could also use someone to handle the corners, and for now, Dalbec is the best bet. He’s yet to prove he can hit major league pitching with any consistency, but he possesses power as a righthand bat off the bench and can help out at two infield spots, and if needed, the outfield.
Enmanuel Valdez is another name to throw into the mix, but with Reyes a far better defender in the middle of the infield and Grissom expected to start at second, Valdez can probably use more development time at Triple A.
Outfield (5): Masataka Yoshida, Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Rob Refsnyder.
The outfield is pretty undefined. The only certainty is that Yoshida can only play left field, and given his limitations, the Red Sox, without a full-time DH — at least for the time being — may give him more playing time there. O’Neill, Duran and Abreu are all capable of moving around, and Refsnyder gives them one more righthanded bat and additional defensive versatility.
The wildcard here is Ceddanne Rafaela. At the close of last season, manager Alex Cora said he thought the athletic Rafaela needed more time in the minors to refine his plate approach. But more recently at the winter meetings, Cora seemed to change his thinking there. It helps that Rafaela can also play shortstop, increasing his value.
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Starting pitchers (5): Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock.
This was the area that need the most improvement, but the rotation wasn’t upgraded much — if it all. Giolito replaces Chris Sale and offers more durability, but his performance is an open question after a poor second half and a bad 2021. Bello is the surest thing and will probably slot in at No. 2.
After that? Good luck. Pivetta earned a long look after his second-half rebound and if he can duplicate what he did after June 1 — 3.18 over 91.1 innings — the Sox would be ecstatic.
Crawford has flashed potential but needs to regularly go deeper into games. Whitlock has bulked up in the offseason, and that may help him become more durable and withstand the physical demands of starting every five days.
Others in the mix include Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski, the latter of whom is being given another shot at the rotation following a good season in relief.
Relievers (8): Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Houck, Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, John Schreiber, Justin Slaten, Bryan Mata.
Unless he’s dealt, Jansen returns to close and Martin remains an elite set-up option. Figure that Houck and Winckowski start the year in the bullpen after being crowded out of the starter competition. And Schreiber, though he dropped off from 2022, has a spot for now.
Bernandino is the lone lefty. Slaten is a Rule 5 acquisition and thus has to remain on the major league roster all year. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether he makes it the whole season but he’ll be given a shot at the beginning. Mata is in a similar spot, as he’s out of options and would have to clear waivers to be outrighted to Worcester. If he pitches well at all in spring training, the Red Sox will probably want to give him the opportunity to start the year in the majors and see how well his swing-and-miss stuff translates in relief.
Others in the mix: Greg Weissert, Chris Murphy, Cooper Criswell, Zack Kelly, Isaiah Campbell.
Weissert has big league experience and will be up at some point. Criswell is the answer to a trivia question (Other than Lucas Giolito, who was the only other free agent signed by the Red Sox in the 2023-2024 offseason?). Kelly and Campbell, both with options remaining, will be available to shuttle between Worcester and Boston.
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There’s a good chance that the most interesting free agent competition after the season will not involve a player, but rather, a manager.
Cora will enter the 2024 season on the final year of his Red Sox contract, which was signed after the 2020 season, then extended when Cora directed the team to the 2021 ALCS.
New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has said since his hiring in November that he doesn’t feel compelled to address Cora’s contractual status. Loosely translated: We’ll see how we work together and how the team performs.
The latter probably will not result in anything positive. Cora may do a good enough job in the dugout that the Red Sox hang around contention for the first half, as they have in each of the last two seasons. But barring something entirely unforeseen, it’s hard to envision the Red Sox competing for a postseason spot and further burnishing Cora’s credentials.
As for the partnership, that will unfold of its own accord. Maybe they’ll work well together and maybe they won’t, but even if Breslow is convinced that he wants Cora to remain long-term, there’s no guarantee that Cora will feel the same way.
Craig Counsell’s landmark deal with the Chicago Cubs last fall — five years, $40 million — grabbed everyone’s attention in the game, including Cora’s. Counsell’s $8 million salary is about triple Cora’s current pay, though to be approximately $2.75 million per season.
Without many other experienced and high-profile managers in the game — Joe Torre, Bobby Cox, Lou Piniella and Jim Leyland have all retired in the last 14 years — there hasn’t been any one established enough to set the high bar when it comes to manager’s pay.
Moreover, Counsell was the first manager in modern history to shop himself around the way players do, and landed a record-breaking deal.
Cora has said the grind of managing is such that he doesn’t envision remaining on the job forever. His next contract may be his last as a manager and he’ll want to maximize its value. The easiest way to do that is to have multiple bidders, providing him with negotiating leverage.
He remains very much a favorite of both Red Sox ownership and team president Sam Kennedy, and it’s possible the Red Sox could outbid other interested teams and retain him. But there will others interested.
It’s a dicey proposition to forecast what teams will be in the managerial marketplace by October, and even then, that might not encapsulate all of the potential bidders. Remember: the Cubs had a manager in place when they negotiated with Counsell, firing David Ross after reaching agreement with Counsell.
Here’s a look at the some potential fits for Cora:
1) Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts’ track record is exemplary: in eight seasons with the Dodgers, he’s finished first seven times and reached the postseason all eight times. He’s won 100 or more games five times, and won a World Series in 2020. But because the Dodgers haven’t won a title in a full season and have been bounced in the Division Series in each of the last two seasons, there’s a sense that they’ve underachieved. Adding Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani has turned the Dodgers into a Super Team, and it would seem that anything less than an NL pennant could, however unfairly, mean the end for Roberts. Cora has significant ties to the organization, having been drafted by the Dodgers in 1996 and playing his first seven seasons in the big leagues for them.
2) Philadelphia Phillies: By every measure, Rob Thomson has done a terrific job for the Phils, enough to be rewarded with a contract extension after initially being an interim hire. Promoted from bench coach in the middle of the year in 2022, he saved their season and led them to the World Series before they were defeated by the Houston Astros. Last year, the Phils finished second, qualified as a wild card and got to the NLCS before being upset by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Thomson is popular with the players and there’s no obvious reason to move on from him. But this is a veteran team, with its core players (J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler) all in their 30s. If the Phils come up short again this fall, Dave Dombrowski may sense that the team’s window is closing and turn to a familiar face to take over. Dombrowski thinks the world of Cora and the feeling is mutual.
3) New York Yankees: Wouldn’t this be interesting? Aaron Boone is entering the final guaranteed year of his deal, though the Yankees have a club option for 2025. Boone has done a good job, getting the Yankees to the postseason in each of his first five years before falling to 82-80 and a fourth-place finish in 2023. One thing he hasn’t done, however, is lead the Yankees to a championship, or, for that matter, a pennant. The Yankees haven’t won a World Series — or been to one — since 2009, and that is very much a storyline in New York. Boone’s job security appeared to be in question after last season before Hal Steinbrenner decided to retain him. It’s hard to see Boone surviving another year without a very deep October run. This would be an awkward situation for Cora, since he and Boone were one-time colleagues at ESPN and are extremely close. But if the Yanks decide to make a change, they’d be foolish to not at least consider Cora as his replacement. Brian Cashman is known to think highly of Cora. Yankee fans might have a hard time accepting a former Red Sox manager, but he would likely eventually be embraced, given the that huge Puerto Ricans population in New York.
4) Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays haven’t won a title since 1993, and their window is also dangerously near closing. Toronto has qualified for the postseason in three of the last four seasons, but hasn’t won a single playoff game (0-6) in that span, swept in the wild card round each time. The Blue Jays have run through three managers in the last six years — John Schneider has the job for now — and could believe that Cora is the person to take them to the next level. The Jays are owned by Rogers Communications and have deep pockets (they were famously a finalist for Ohtani) that could attract Cora — both in terms of the salary they could offer and the payroll they could support.
5) St. Louis Cardinals: The seat is already toasty warm for Ollie Marmol, who, in his second year on the job, oversaw the worst season for the franchise since 1995. Unless the Cardinals take a big step forward in 2024, it’s hard to envision him being brought back for a fourth season. St. Louis remains a great baseball town with a fan following that spreads across big swaths of the midwest. They’re not a traditional big spender when it comes to payroll, but they’re a remarkably consistent and stable organization with a rich tradition — all things that Cora would appreciate.
