It’s no secret that Craig Breslow is analytically-inclined. As a pitcher, he welcomed any data that could give him even the slightest edge on the mound. As an executive with the Chicago Cubs, he was forever in search for the kind of metrics that could help him in projecting which pitching prospects would ultimately succeed at the big league level.
And during the interview process with the Red sox, his grasp of analytics played a significant role in impressing principal owner John Henry. Henry was an early adopter of data, leading him to hire (however briefly) Billy Beane and Bill James, and relied heavily on analytics in building his own hedge fund business. He was said to have made it clear that he wasn’t interested in an old-school GM for the Red Sox opening if they weren’t sufficiently analytically-driven in their approach.
So, Breslow knows his way around a spread sheet. But while that’s highly useful in evaluating players in the modern game, it’s far from the only tool in his kit.
As the GM Meetings wrapped up in Arizona, Breslow made clear that there are other variables into which he takes account when it comes to player evaluation, and that in addition to incorporating what scouts have seen with their own eyes, there are intangibles that fit into the equation.
Case in point: leadership and off-field contributions. No analyst can properly measure that impact, but Breslow knows that it’s something that can contribute to a player’s success, and by extension, the team’s, too.
Justin Turner, who immediately impacted the Red Sox in 2023 with his leadership and willingness to help others in the clubhouse, is one such example of a player who can’t be defined solely by his slash line or secondary numbers.
“It’s a subjective evaluation for sure,” said Breslow, “but that’s very, very different from saying it doesn’t matter. The way that you draw those types of factors out, is to communicate with the people around those guys, to communicate with the coaching staff, to understand what the value is of an additional ‘coach’ on staff, or someone who can get an entire clubhouse moving in the same direction.
“It’s very, very difficult to quantify, but I would stop short of saying that since because we can’t quantify it, it doesn’t matter.”
Then there’s the matter of suitability for the Boston market. Not everyone is cut out for that environment, where expectations and scrutiny are high and media coverage is intense. Some flourish on that stage, while others would prefer a more low-key atmosphere where their every flaw isn’t as exposed.
The Red Sox have seen how it can go wrong with players who aren’t happy existing under the microscope here. David Price struggled with it, and so did Pablo Sandoval. Both were expensive miscalculations, and Breslow hopes he doesn’t make similar missteps.
More recently, the New York Yankees have had a few moves backfire when it comes to players being poorly suited for the bright lights. Acquiring Joey Gallo, for instance, continues to haunt Brian Cashman.
Breslow has the additional advantage of not only playing in Boston — in two separate stints — but also a variety of other big markets (Toronto), but also smaller ones, too (Oakland, Cleveland, Minnesota, Arizona, San Diego and Miami).
“Certainly there are players who have thrived in Boston and others who haven’t,” he noted. “To think that we can know who those will be, I think is really, really difficult. Instead, it seems that we make those determinations retrospectively. We say, ‘Oh, as it turns out, that person was kind of built for this stage.’
“I think what we’re looking for are players who want to compete in front of a passionate fan base, who demands this kind of standard of excellence. And I think what every player wants, right? So it’s really difficult to make those determinations and I would fear that we’d get them wrong by jumping to conclusions on certain players.”
In his time as a Cubs executive, Breslow saw management factor in how a particular player might adapt to playing in Chicago and all that brings.
“I think most players approach these types of decisions with an appreciation for what a team can mean to a city, or to a fan base or a region,” said Breslow. “I think there are very few players who shy away from that challenge. I think what we can do is be honest about what Boston is, what Boston brings, and what Boston welcomes. Ultimately, at least in free agency, it’s up to the player to make the decision about what where he wants to be.”
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Nearly 50 years ago, Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally helped usher in the era of free agency for players. Did Craig Counsell just do the same for managers?
Counsell’s deal with the Milwaukee Brewers was up, leaving Counsell to negotiate with a number of club. And just when it appeared he would either return to Milwaukee or go to Cleveland or New York, he stunned everyone by signing a landmark deal with the Cubs. His five-year, $40 million deal with the Cubs makes him far and away the highest-paid manager in the game, with an AAV of $8 million. The next-closest is believed to be Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, who has the benefit of having four titles on his resume.
Could Counsell’s deal set a new bar for managers?
“Much like in a player dynamic, Craig pursued free agency,” said Minnesota Twins president of baseball operations. Derek Falvey. “We just aren’t as comfortable talking about that in GM or manager roles. But it’s happened before. I don’t think of it in the context of anything that it ‘signals,’ big picture; it’s obviously something he pursued and Craig is incredibly well-respected.”
Big money deals remain the outlier in the game. Compare the average MLB manager’s salary to those given to their counterparts in both the NFL and NBA, and it’s clear that baseball has some catching up to do. The manager (and coaches) pay scale is so meager, in general, that some highly regarded college coaches have been reluctant to the make the jump to MLB, where the pay is less and the job security far worse.
Counsell was active in the Players Association during his playing career, and word is, he was very much aware that snagging a record-setting deal could impact other fellow managers across the industry. He may well have been correct in that assessment.
“I would say, sure, it will have an effect,” said Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “Now, it’s not going to effect everybody because if you’re a manager who’s just starting off, you’re not going to have the same resumé as Craig Counsell does.”
Dombrowski noted that this isn’t the first cycle of managers being rewarded. A decade or so ago, Joe Torre and Tony La Russa were proven winners who could command big paychecks. Then, as that generation of managers retired, younger managers were given opportunities. But without having proved themselves, they weren’t in position to demand big deals.
Also, for a time, the trend seemed to involve analytic-heavy executives hiring younger managers, to whom they could dictate everything from lineup construction to in-game strategy. These younger candidates were in no position to demand bigger salaries.
But perhaps Counsell will start a new cycle with his landmark contract.
It will be fascinating to see how any of this impacts Alex Cora. Cora enters the 2024 season in the final year of a multi-year deal, and is believed to be making somewhere between $2.5 and $3 million annually. He has a World Series title to his credit and another deep run in the postseason in 2021. He remains highly respected throughout the game, and could no doubt command a bidding war if he were to be on the open market.
What if the Red Sox get off to a strong start in 2024, and Cora is approached about an extension, only to decide, he, too, would like to test his worth as a free agent and see if he couldn’t, at the very least, create a market for himself to win a significantly bigger contract.
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If, indeed, the Red Sox and Yankees get together on a trade sending Alex Verdugo to the Bronx — both infielder Gleyber Torres and righthander Clarke Schmidt have been mentioned as possible returns — it wouldn’t be unprecedented. But it would be rare.
Unsurprisingly, the two rivals don’t trade with one another. But there have been a few deals made between the two in the last half century or so.
1) Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater and Mario Guerrero, March 1972.
This was disastrous for the Red Sox. The Sox needed a first baseman, and thought Cater, just a season removed from hitting .301 for the Yankees, could be the answer. Spoiler alert: he was not. Cater never played more than 92 games in a season with the Sox and posted a slash line of .262/.301/.384 over three full seasons. He was out of baseball by the middle of 1975. Guerrero, was a light-hitting utility infielder of little impact.
Meanwhile, Lyle pitched seven seasons for the Yankees, winning a Cy Young award once and finishing seventh another year. He twice was in the top six of vote-getters as AL MVP and saved 141 games with a 2.42 ERA. He was a key part on three pennant-winning teams in New York.
2) Mike Easler for Don Baylor, March 1986
This may not have been as lopsided for the Red Sox as the Lyle trade was for the Yanks, but it was a clear victory for the Red Sox, who determined at the end of spring training that they needed a righthanded DH instead of a lefthanded one.
Baylor has a terrific year as the Red Sox reached the World Series, with 31 homers and 94 RBI even as he batted just .238. (His OBP was far more impressive at .344, thanks in no small part to his league-leading 35 hit-by-pitches).
Easler, meanwhile, had a decent season in New York with an .811 OPS. Both players moved on elsewhere after 1986.
3) Stephen Drew for Kelly Johnson, June 2014
Deciding it was time to give the shortstop job to Xander Bogaerts, the Sox shipped the veteran Drew to the Yankees for utility man Johnson. The deal didn’t impact either team in a major way — other than to open the opportunity for Bogaerts.
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EXTRA INNINGS
1) Scott Boras is undoubtedly the premier agent in the industry and a brilliant negotiator and advocate for his clients. But when he unveils his plan to improve the game and attract more interest — as he did at the recent GM Meetings, in which he again called for a neutral site to host the World Series — he’s deluding himself into thinking that anyone with Major League Baseball is taking his suggestions to heart. A parallel would have been Al Davis taking his list of ideas to Pete Rozelle, while suing the NFL into next week. And while Boras’s idea to stage a week-long celebration of the sport, copying the Super Bowl model, might have some merit, I don’t like the idea of a sterile, corporate fan base in attendance for seven games.
2) Good to see Ron Washington getting another chance to manage. Washington did a superb job with the Rangers a decade ago, winning two pennants and coming oh-so-close to a championship. Washington is known as one of hardest-working people in the game, and his work as an infield instructor is second-to-none. He’s walking into a mess in Anaheim, led by an obstinate owner, so I’m not sure how successful he’ll be. But he at least deserves the opportunity.
3) Don’t call the Chicago Cubs sentimental. After the 2014 season, Theo Epstein fired manager Rick Renteria so that he could hire the suddenly available Joe Maddon. The move paid off almost immediately, as Maddon improved the team by 24 games, taking the Cubs to the NLCS in his first year, then winning the World Series in his second. This past week, Jed Hoyer, who worked under Epstein both with the Red Sox and the Cubs, stunned everyone by firing David Ross so that he could hire Counsell. Under Ross, the Cubs improved in each of the last two seasons, narrowing missing the playoffs this year. If history repeats and Counsell takes the team to the postseason and eventually another title, Hoyer will look smart. If not, he’ll merely look ruthless.
