There are plenty of layers to unpack from the news the Patriots have moved on from Matthew Judon, trading him to the Atlanta Falcons.
From the return of a third-round pick for Judon, to the cost of eliminating the best pass rusher from the defense, to the impact on the Patriots future, and the fallout in the locker room, the trade of Judon has so many aftershocks.
First, let’s assess the compensation.
Considering an NFL executive told MassLive a few weeks back that the Patriots would be lucky to get a fifth rounder, this looks like a terrific deal for the Patriots considering Judon’s age (32), him coming off an injury, and the fact the Falcons are going to have to deal with his contract.
“Very good return,” said the same executive when reached Wednesday. “Sounds like they had a few teams interested and it may have drove up the comp … smart move.”
Whatever the Falcons’ motivation, Patriots de facto GM Eliot Wolf made a good deal, and the most of a prickly situation. So thumbs up for Wolf on what he was able to squeeze out of Atlanta. The Falcons, meanwhile, land a top flight pass rusher, and if they are able to agree to terms on an extension, it’s a win for them, too.
During the past few weeks, Judon wasn’t shy about voicing his displeasure being in the final year of a deal that paid him $6.5 million. As arguably the team’s best defensive player, and one of the league’s best pass rushers, he had a point about being underpaid.
Judon also saw Wolf & Co. pay no less than 10 of his teammates who were either free agents, or entering contract years.
Understandably, he wanted his payday. He also wanted to stay.
But the Patriots, clearly in a rebuilding process, didn’t find it beneficial to give Judon the type of money he was looking for on a multi-year extension.
The player who famously wore red sleeves and was a menace to opposing quarterbacks, didn’t represent the future for Jerod Mayo’s team. So while this isn’t going to help the Patriots when it comes to winning games this season, it should help them in the future.
The 2025 pick could be relatively high in the third round depending how Atlanta fares in 2024. Moreover, by having an additional third round pick, the Patriots could package that to move up the board to get a player to fill a need, something they weren’t able to do to land an actual left tackle in the 2024 draft. Beyond that, the Patriots continue to add money to the war chest.
They have a ton of money they can roll into next year to continue their efforts building a foundation they’ve started. They just have to spend it, and do so on the right players.
Whether it’s getting blue chip receiver help, or actually landing a bona fide left tackle, they certainly have the cash to do it.
The impact on the defense?
Judon didn’t play in 13 games last year thanks to the torn biceps he suffered Week 4. His absence wasn’t as devastating as one might have imagined. The defense held its own. But, some context is needed. The Patriots’ list of opponents wasn’t necessarily packed with contending teams, or stud quarterbacks.
They face the gauntlet this year. The schedule is loaded with many of the league’s best quarterbacks with Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and Justin Herbert on the docket, just to name a few. It won’t help matters if the Patriots can’t generate a pass rush.
Judon’s departure, however, will let the Patriots get a better feel for how good Keion White, a 2023 second-round pick, can be in a pass-rushing role. Josh Uche will also need to step up in a contract year.
In short, this falls into the category of getting worse, to get better in the future. As it is, the Patriots didn’t exactly pass the litmus test against the Philadelphia Eagles in Tuesday’s joint practice session. Already, they have the look of a team that’s going to get another high draft pick in the first round next year.
Fans aren’t going to like having another miserable season. They’re not going to buy the notion of taking a step backward, to go forward – especially with all the money they still have left against the cap. They want a good team today, not tomorrow.
But reality had to set in after watching how woeful the offense looked against the Eagles on Tuesday. The offensive line is so bad, it’s not safe to have rookie Drake Maye play. Mayo admitted as much following last week’s preseason game with the Panthers.
The roster just doesn’t have anywhere near enough talent. Players don’t want to come to Foxborough (hello, Brandon Aiyuk) and be a part of the team, as presently constituted. So there’s still a lot of work to do.
Finally, the fallout in the locker room will be interesting to monitor going forward.
Judon, who was an active participant in the joint practice with the Eagles, even chasing down Saquon Barkley on one play and punching the ball loose, was beloved by his teammates. He kept things loose, and often sparked the defense with his play. Teammates showed support in his contract battle, and openly lobbied for him to get more.
“I still want to see my brother Matthew Judon get his contract,” Davon Godchaux said not long after he was rewarded with an extension. “As we all know, it’s a business. But he deserves a new contract. We’re all pulling for him because this guy has been a relentless pass rusher for us the past three years. We came in together. I would love to keep building with him.”
The players do understand the business side. They might not like it, but they get it. The trouble will come when the losses pile up.
In the long run, though, if the Patriots play their cards right, which is the hope, this will be a key move in the rebuild, and return to relevance.
