Three games into the 2023 season, and the Patriots don’t have the look of a playoff team.
At least, not on one side of the football.
While the defense has looked the part, the offense has been far from it, averaging just 17.3 points per game.
At 1-2, with an offense that’s struggling to score, and one of the toughest schedules in the NFL to navigate, the playoffs might seem like a pipe dream.
Only, looking at the AFC landscape, it really isn’t as far-fetched as it once seemed.
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After three weeks, Miami stands as the only unbeaten team in the AFC. And while Kansas City (2-1) and Buffalo (2-1) appear to have righted the ship after opening week losses, the number of elite teams has dwindled. Instead of having to deal with a slew of super powers, a giant middle class has emerged.
That’s roughly where the Patriots currently sit, and it’s anyone’s guess which teams will ultimately land playoff spots either as division winners, or one of three wild card teams.
Three playoff teams from last year – Cincinnati, Jacksonville, LA Chargers – are also 1-2. So that alone is a plus.
What else looms in the Patriots favor? Why is a playoff berth still plausible?
Here’s five reasons why it could happen.
1. The offensive line is improving
The unit finally showed signs of life against the Jets. Trent Brown was back at left tackle after missing one game, and Vederian Lowe took over at right tackle for Calvin Anderson. Lowe proved a significant upgrade over Anderson, who struggled the first two games.
Center David Andrews has been a consistent presence, while right guard Michael Onwenu shook a little more rust off in his second game back. With left guard Cole Strange still hampered by a leg injury, rookie Antonio Mafi has been filling in.
Bottom line, that group fared much better in pass protection and also got a little more push up front in the run game against a very good Jets defensive front.
The longer they’re together, the better it will be for the offense as a whole.
Basically, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has been scheming around the deficiencies of the line. With the line becoming more stable, it allows O’Brien to open the playbook more.
And with an improved run game, that sets up play action, which is a key component to helping receivers get open.
2. Cornerback help is on the way
The Patriots have basically survived without a full complement of corners. Jack Jones (IR, hamstring), Marcus Jones (IR, torn labrum) and Jonathan Jones, who has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, have been on the sidelines.
The good news?
While Marcus Jones is more of a long-term proposition, Jack Jones could return as soon as Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints. He was placed on IR prior to the season opener and he’s eligible to come off following this week’s game with the Dallas Cowboys.
Jonathan Jones, meanwhile, seems to be getting closer to a return, too. So with Christian Gonzalez & Co. getting reinforcements, that’ll make the defense even more formidable.
3. Defense will keep them in every game
The credits are piling up. First, Bill Belichick’s defense held Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles offense to one touchdown. Then, they tamed Tyreek Hill (5 catches, 40 yards) before zapping Zach Wilson.
Another plus?
They’ve made plays late in games to give the Patriots a chance to win. Matthew Judon’s fourth quarter take-down of Zach Wilson in the end zone for a safety was huge. Against Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia, the defense kept getting the ball back to give the offense a chance to win the game. It happened against the Dolphins, too.
All of which is a good sign going forward. One of the biggest knocks on the defense last year was not being able to keep the better teams and better quarterbacks in check late in games.
That hasn’t been an issue so far.
4. Mac Jones is more comfortable
Three games in, Mac Jones has the 9th most passing yards in the league (748), the third most attempts (125) while being 5th in passing touchdowns.
But stats can me misleading, and interpreted in many different ways. Just based on the eye test, Jones looks better, looks more comfortable with what he’s doing, and what he’s being asked to do.
When it comes to facing the pressure of a rush that’s closing in on him, he’s a completely different quarterback than he was a year ago. He’s taken hits to make plays.
While he still doesn’t appear to have that all-important clutch gene, be it closing out games, or finishing off a comeback, it’s still early to completely bury him on that.
Let’s see what happens down the road assuming the line continues to make strides, and the running game continues to get better.
O’Brien already has him headed in the right direction. Now, it’s a question of how much more he can advance.
5. Schedule doesn’t seem so daunting
While Dallas, Buffalo (twice), Miami and Kansas City don’t set up as wins, there’s plenty of other matchups that seem a little more manageable.
Obviously, the Patriots will get the Jets again. Who knows who will be under center for Gang Green the final week of the season. If Zach Wilson survives that far, the Patriots are the last team he’ll want to see if something’s on the line.
Week 5 opponent New Orleans (2-1) might not have starting quarterback Derek Carr, who suffered an AC joint injury Sunday, and is considered week to week. As everyone knows, the Patriots tend to feast on backups. Good luck, Jameis Winston.
Week 6 opponent Las Vegas is 1-2 at this stage. So are the New York Giants, who are giving up 30 points a game, and the LA Chargers, who while scoring a ton of points, haven’t been able to keep opposing teams out of the end zone. Plus, the Patriots have owned Justin Herbert thus far.
Washington, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh are all 2-1, but all have flaws. Denver is 0-3, and just had the Dolphins plant 70 on them.
In theory, those are nine winnable games. It’s doubtful the Patriots will run the table, but given how many of those teams have looked, coming out of the gate, it’s certainly conceivable for the Patriots to pile up some wins if they continue to get their act together on offense.
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