FOXBOROUGH – With the trade deadline now less than a week away, there could be some serious fireworks across the league for teams looking to bolster their roster for the playoffs, or to make a final push toward the postseason.
The question is whether or not those fireworks will involve the Patriots, who could be buyers or sellers before Halloween’s deadline date, depending on the outcome of Sunday’s game in Miami.
If they’re sellers, looking to stock up with quality draft picks for the future, don’t hold your breath.
According to NFL Network analyst Marc Ross, who is a former Vice President of Player Evaluation for the Giants, the Patriots don’t have many players in their stable that would yield the desired return.
“It’s always fun to say, let’s do this and that, but when you look at their roster, who’s going to give up anything for what they have? Maybe Trent Brown?” Ross said, singling out the left tackle. “But aside from that, they just don’t have a whole lot of talent.”
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If there’s any reason for a noose to be around Bill Belichick’s neck sitting at 2-5, it’s because of the roster he’s assembled, and the lack of blue chip players, particularly on offense.
If the Patriots lose to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, and decide that blowing it up is the best course of action, be careful what you wish for. The return just might not be worth selling off the parts.
“(Their organization) can say, ‘Ok, let’s trade somebody and build for the future,’ but then who are we going to trade? And it’s nobody,” said Ross, offering a sobering assessment. “That’s the catch-22 of that. You gotta have people to trade that teams want in order to get assets for the future.”
In theory, players in the final year of deals would make the most sense to move. For the Patriots, that means Josh Uche, Kyle Dugger, Jalen Mills, Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Kendrick Bourne, Michael Onwenu and Brown are the top names on the rental list.
Why would Brown get the most out of that lot?
Because decent left tackles are hard to come by. If Brown is engaged, he’s better than decent. In fact, Pro Football Focus has Brown rated as one of the best offensive tackles in the league after seven weeks. He’s also in a contract year. So some playoff bound team that’s lost their top blindside protector might offer up a decent draft pick in exchange for the left tackle.
“It’s a premium position,” Ross said with respect to tackle. “He’s been around. He’s had success in the league. He’s a veteran guy who could step in there. With the dearth of quality offensive linemen in the league, he would be the one, when I look at the roster, who might generate some interest.”
Depending how desperate a team is, that might help boost the return for Brown, who was a seventh-round draft pick in 2015.
“If someone comes with a third-rounder for him, will they hold out for more?” Ross wondered about the Patriots. “That’s always the tough part, putting a number on it, seeing how the market is this year. And who’s desperate or not?”
If someone offers a third-rounder for Brown, who’s 30, that would be hard to pass up given the up-and-down nature of his performances.
As for the others, they fall into the mid-to-late – mostly late – round category. And with that, the Patriots have to decide if not getting the best bang for their buck for the player is even worth the exercise of dealing him.
After Brown, Uche might garner some attention with his pass-rush ability. He’d be plug-and-play for most teams, although he hasn’t been able to set the edge against the run game. But still, a pass-rush specialist might get something.
Ross, however, still had him pegged for getting a late-round pick in return.
“There was a ton of trading last year, (Christian) McCaffrey, Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, those were some of the bigger trades,” he said, “But besides that, you’re getting mid-to-late round value. So you have to say to yourself, are these guys worth trading for that? Does that help our team? You always have to assess, what helps your team the most? And getting a sixth-round pick for Uche, is that helping your team? Or are you doing it, just to do it? That’s what you always have to look at and assess.”
Ross was with the Giants for 11 years, including the two Super Bowl wins against the Patriots. During his time as an evaluator, trades rarely happened before the deadline. It just wasn’t a thing. But nowadays, teams are getting more aggressive. As Ross said, that “all in” mentality has crept into the league.
When it comes to the Patriots, however, it’s hard to envision Belichick parting with Brown, or anyone that would hamper their ability to win. As it is, with no depth, they’ve had a tough time putting out competent tackles. Whether they’re out of it, or not, with Don Shula’s record in sight, Belichick is looking to pile up as many wins as possible.
Beyond that, even if he did want to clean house, there’s just not a lot he can do with the trade chips he has to offer. Plus, the best one he could offer – cornerback Christian Gonzalez – isn’t for sale.
“It’s easy to say let’s trade these people,” said Ross. “But you gotta have trade partners. You gotta have a player teams want. You gotta have the right value for it. You have to have the right parameters, and you have to be willing to do it as well. There’s a lot of layers to it.”
And most of those layers favor the Patriots coming up empty on returns.
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