Robert Kraft hates to lose. Emphasis on hate.
But that’s his reality right now. The Patriots are 2-9 and off to their worst start in more than 30 years.
Adding to the gory details, they’re 27-35 (including one playoff loss) since Tom Brady left the building.
With six games to play, and no end to the misery in sight, the Patriots owner is no doubt pondering what to do at season’s end.
His to-do list is larger than previous years. On the surface, Kraft, who has avoided speaking about the state of his team, has several tasks ahead.
What are they? Here’s the top five on the checklist.
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1. Resolve Bill Belichick’s future
Kraft has to decide whether he still wants to ride into the future with the coach who helped bring him six Super Bowls, or come to the realization it’s time to move on.
There’s certainly been plenty of speculation that a mutual parting is already in the works. Whether true or not, it’s certainly a possibility. And at this stage, almost seems inevitable.
On Tuesday, offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien spoke about having to deal with rumors about Belichick’s job status.
“This is Bill Belichick we’re talking about,” O’Brien said. “Bill Belichick has done so much for the game of football, the New England Patriots organization. It’s football. We’ve lost some tight games. You know, to think about what he’s done here in this organization, what he’s done for this community, what he’s done for this game — for the game, the game of football. He’s been 50 years in the game of football. Just to me, like, I think everybody just needs to understand, look, we’ve all got to win. We understand we’re in a winning business. We’re not winning right now. But I think you’ve also got to step back and just [say], ‘Hey, look at what this guy’s done for the game of football.’ I think that’s very important to think about.”
It’s also part of the process for Kraft. He made a mistake and allowed Brady to walk out the door. He doesn’t want to make the same mistake again.
But this is different. Belichick isn’t the quarterback. He is the head coach and chief decision maker when it comes to assembling the team. Whether it’s free agency, the draft, the shape of the roster, the buck stops with him.
If Kraft ultimately decides parting is the best solution, he also needs to decide if he’d fire him, and have to foot the rest of Belichick’s contract, or trade him, with the hopes of getting something back in return.
It could get messy if Kraft insists on compensation, and Belichick insists his future employer not surrender draft picks. Teams would be smart to wait it out, especially if they believe Kraft wants a divorce from his head coach. Basically, they’d be getting Belichick on Kraft’s dime the first year as opposed to trading something back in return.
At this point, it’s possible Kraft already knows the answer to all of these Belichick questions. If not, that’s his first order of business. That’s where it starts.
2. Decide if a major blow up/rebuild is the way to go
Should Kraft decide to move on from Belichick, he will have to decide if it’s just a new coach he needs, or if he wipes out the front office as well, namely director of player personnel Matt Groh.
While Belichick is the de facto general manager, the front office is largely made up of executives who learned at the hip of Belichick.
So Kraft has to decide if he believes the team can return to glory by simply extracting Belichick from the equation and adding a new head coach, or if he needs to clean house. Personally, I’d lean more toward the latter.
In any case, answering that question stands as the most significant one for the Patriots owner going forward.
3. Explore head coaching candidates
While the assumption is Kraft will pass the baton to Jerod Mayo should he move on from Belichick, that shouldn’t preclude Kraft from not only hearing how the team’s current linebackers coach plans to rebuild the team and resurrect the franchise, but he should also get a head start on exploring other candidates.
And there are plenty out there who are intriguing possibilities, especially those with offensive backgrounds.
Tops on the list is Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who has done well to craft an offense around Jared Goff and the Lions assortment of weapons. And, if Washington moves on from Ron Rivera, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy should also be in the mix for head coaching jobs.
On the defensive side, along with Mayo, Kraft needs to find out if Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel, the Patriots Hall of Famer, is available. There have been reports suggesting the Titans are sticking with Vrabel, but that shouldn’t prevent Kraft from kicking the tires.
Kraft also needs to scour the college ranks before settling on Mayo or whoever else. While there haven’t been many to make the successful leap, it’s still worth picking some brains and fact-finding at that level.
4. Explore GM candidates
Given Belichick also holds the role, Kraft will need to find a GM who has a firm grasp of today’s NFL, and will assemble the roster accordingly.
Throwing a few names out there, Kraft has familiarity with Jon Robinson (former Titans GM) and Thomas Dimitroff (former Falcons GM). Both started with the Patriots, and both enjoyed a measure of success.
Outside of them, Adam Peters, currently the assistant GM with the 49ers, would be another attractive candidate given the success of that team. Peters also spent four seasons as the vice president of player personnel for the 49ers, and was with the Denver Broncos before that.
While he’s investigating head coaches and GMs, it behooves Kraft to see how outsiders view his team, what the Patriots need to do better particularly when it comes to fixing the offense.
5. Decide what to do with Mac Jones
While it’s nice to have good quarterbacks on affordable contracts, Kraft needs to determine if Jones can be salvaged in any way, or if it’s best to move on and cut ties now. Given the situation with the backups, the Patriots will either need to sign a free agent quarterback (Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Ryan Tannehill) during the offseason to compete for the starting job, or go back into the draft to find their future quarterback, or both.
In any case, Jones, who did not get any quarterback reps during the media viewing portion of Wednesday’s practice, is under contract for the 2024 season, and has an option for the following season that needs to be picked up by May. So that decision is looming as well.
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