NEW YORK — One of Jayson Tatum’s greatest traits throughout his Celtics career has been his durability. He played through as much as just about any All-Star in the NBA over the past five seasons. Bad luck finally hit the iron man in Game 4 at Madison Square Garden Monday night amid a 42-point performance. Tatum fell to the ground while diving for a loose ball with what appeared to be a non-contact injury to his right lower leg. Joe Mazzulla said he would get an MRI on Tuesday after he was helped off the court.
“I mean, obviously that’s our brother, and you hate to see him go down,” Derrick White said after the 121-113 Game 4 loss for the Celtics. “We just know the type of guy he is, and it’s just tough to see him go down. But obviously, right now, it’s pretty low because of the game, and we just got to find a way to win Game 5.”
The short-term ramifications are clear for the Celtics, who now must win three straight games to advance out of the second round. The series shifts back to Boston on Wednesday night, and the very safe assumption is that Tatum won’t be available after needing a wheelchair to make it to the locker room.
“I think everybody’s concerned with Jayson,” Jaylen Brown said. “I’m not sure how bad it is. Didn’t look great. But I think everybody is kind of more concerned with that. Obviously the loss is huge. But we’ve got to get ready for Game 5, so we’ll take the night and pick our heads up tomorrow and put together a game plan to come out on our own floor to keep this series alive.”
If it ends up being a worst-case scenario for Tatum from an injury standpoint (torn Achilles?), the ramifications on Boston would be immense if the All-Star is expected to miss most or all of next season.
The Celtics already have $227 million in payroll committed to 11 players next season, which amounts to a luxury tax bill of nearly $280 million. That $507 million spend would have been the biggest payroll and tax spend in NBA history by about $130 million. There were already serious doubts around the league that Boston’s ownership would be willing to pay that type of money in a single season. Cost-cutting was already expected this summer to some degree.
Everything changes though if Boston suddenly isn’t a contender, which would be the harsh reality for this team next year without Tatum available. Suddenly, the Celtics have a lot more incentive to cut big money and the path to trades wouldn’t necessarily be easy with Kristaps Porzingis facing lingering illness issues this postseason and Jrue Holiday’s rising age and cap number. Here’s a look at Boston’s payroll for next year.
Jayson Tatum: $54.1 million
Jaylen Brown: $53.1 million
Jrue Holiday: $32.4 million
Kristaps Porzingis: $30.7 million
Derrick White: $28.1 million
Sam Hauser: $10 million
Payton Pritchard: $7.2 million
Baylor Scheierman: $2.6 million
Xavier Tillman: $2.5 million
Neemias Queta: $2.3 million
Jordan Walsh: $2.2 million (non-guaranteed)
First round draft pick: $2.5 million
Open roster spot x 2: ????
Free agents: Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Torrey Craig
Total: $227 million in payroll committed to 11 players
Luxury tax line: $187.8 million
Second apron: $207.8 million
Getting back under the second apron would have been a likelihood this summer no matter what Tatum’s status was, after Wyc Grousbeck’s comments back in March. If Tatum’s expected to be sidelined for much of the year with a serious injury, a full reset may come into play.
Boston has been a luxury tax team for three straight years now (including this year) so that brings painful repeater tax penalties into play beginning next year (repeater tax kicks in when you are in tax three of the last four years). If Boston elects to trim major payroll next year, they could dip under the tax ($187 million) and reset that clock for at least one year. Boston would need to be under the tax for two straight years for the repeater tax to no longer be a factor this decade. That would help with the team’s flexibility down the line and perhaps better reposition them to reload later this decade around a healthy Tatum.
However, how exactly the Celtics would try to trim serious money ($40 million) from the payroll would not be easy from a salary matching standpoint. It would also lead to very tough choices as key players (Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Sam Hauser) likely would all become candidates to be moved in the right deal for payroll relief and/or assets. Al Horford’s future in Boston also becomes a bit of a question mark if the Celtics go down this road.
Ultimately, the Celtics front office made a wise choice to push all-in on the past two years, leading to a title last season and a contending squad before Tatum suffered his injury in Game 4. The bill is coming due soon and it will lead to painful choices for a championship core if Tatum’s out for the long haul.
