Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman is expected to opt out of the final two years of his three-year, $120 million contract. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported Tuesday that it will happen.
If Bregman leaves the Red Sox to sign with another team in free agency, could Marcelo Mayer, a natural shortstop and Baseball America’s No. 9 overall prospect, be relied on to fill the void left at third base?
Another layer exists: Shortstop Trevor Story has the ability to opt out, too. If he signs elsewhere, Mayer would be his obvious successor.
Story has two years and $55 million remaining on his six-year, $140 million contract. The Red Sox can void his opt-out if he triggers it by adding an extra one-year, $20 million to the deal for 2028.
Mayer has the ability to replace either Bregman or Story’s defensive production, but replacing either’s offensive production would be difficult at this point in his career.
Mayer filled in admirably at third when Bregman missed 43 games from May 24-July 10 with a right quad strain. But questions remain about his ability to be an everyday player at 22 years old with only 27 career plate appearances vs. left-handed pitchers.
Story and Bregman provide everyday consistency. Bregman posted an OPS over .800 against both lefties and righties this past season. Story, meanwhile, had almost equal production with just a nine-point difference in his OPS against lefties and righties.
Manager Alex Cora typically avoided batting Mayer against lefty starters and relievers. Mayer went just 4-for-26 (.154) against southpaws while starting only five games against them. He was 13-for-48 (.271) with a .300 on-base percentage, .458 slugging percentage and .758 OPS in 50 plate appearances against lefties for Triple-A Worcester before his promotion.
The Red Sox faced left-handed starters in 28% of games in 2025. Is Mayer ready to be an everyday player who holds his own against lefties that often? Would Cora start him against lefties?
Bregman and Story combined for 43% of the home runs that Red Sox right-handed batters hit this season. That would be a lot of right-handed production to replace, if one of them left, let alone both.
If Mayer were to take over at third or shortstop full-time, the right-handed production would need to be replaced at another position such as at second base or first base. Pending free agent first baseman Pete Alonso — a right-handed slugger who has hit 264 home runs in seven big league seasons — is the big name to watch here.
Kyle Schwarber is the other top power hitter on the market. He’s left-handed but had a higher slugging percentage against lefties (.598) than righties (.541) in 2025.
Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow needs to add power this offseason no matter what after Boston finished 15th in the majors in home runs (186) and 27th during the second half (64).
Mayer is still maturing as an overall hitter. He showed plus bat speed and had a 51.7% hard-hit percentage last year but he had a high 30.1% strikeout percentage and walked in only 5.9% of his plate appearances.
Mayer’s injury history should be another concern if he replaces Bregman or Story. It’s fair to question whether the Sox can rely on him to be available for majority of a 162-game season.
Mayer has never played in more than 91 games in any of his four full professional seasons. He underwent season-ending wrist surgery this year, causing him to miss the final 58 games of the regular season. That’s after shoulder inflammation ended his 2023 season early and a lumbar strain ended his 2024 season prematurely.
Eugenio Suárez, a 34-year-old right-handed hitter is eligible for free agency this offseason, would be an external option to replace Bregman at third base. Suárez crushed 49 homers in 159 games between Arizona and Seattle this season but he wouldn’t provide nearly the same production defensively as Bregman.
Suárez finished with negative-6 defensive runs saved in 1,347 ⅔ innings at third base this season while Bregman, despite a down year defensively, still finished in the positive with one defensive run saved in 972 ⅓ innings.
Dodgers’ Miguel Rojas, a 36-year-old right-handed hitting free agent, wouldn’t come close to replacing Bregman or Story’s production offensively but he’s a strong defensive option at either position.
Blue Jays right-handed hitting shortstop Bo Bichette also is eligible for free agency. At 27, he’ll be the top shortstop option on the market. He has a .329/.382/.524/.907 career line with six homers and 10 doubles in 35 games at Fenway Park.
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