At 4-2, the Patriots are in first place in the AFC East with a very manageable schedule in front of them beginning with Sunday’s game at Tennessee. Could they be a playoff contender?
Both the computers and the bookmakers like their chances.
Below is a look at how simulators from The Washington Post, ESPN’s FPI and PlayoffStatus.com, as well as BetMGM’s oddsmakers, think the rest of New England’s season will play out:
Washington Post
The Post’s computers simulate the season’s remaining games 25,000 times. This is what it is projecting for the Patriots.
Average Wins: 11.2
Makes the Postseason: 87%
Win Division: 47%
Top seed in AFC: 13
Win Super Bowl: 5%
ESPN’s FPI
ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts each team’s record but their formula allows for fractional wins — for example, the Buccaneers are projected to go 11.3-5.7.
The Patriots are projected to go 10.2-6.8.
It gives the Patriots a:
- 74.3% chance to make the playoffs
- 44.8% chance to win the AFC East
- 36.9% chance to make the Divisional Playoff Round
- 15.5% chance to make the conference finals
- 6.6% to make the Super Bowl
- 2.6 % chance to win the Super Bowl
PlayoffStatus.com
Make the Playoffs: 83%
Second Round: 49%
Make the AFC Championship: 24%
Make it to Super Bowl: 11%
Win Super Bowl: 5%
BetMGM
The Las Vegas bookmakers are not trying to guess accurately in terms of eventual results as much as they are trying to spread bets around to the most teams, allowing them to make the most money.
BetMGM, the casino’s online sports betting arm, offers bets on the Patriots who are:
- +4000 to win the Super Bowl
- +175 to win the AFC East
- -300 to make the playoffs
- +240 to miss playoffs
MGM also as awards odds with:
- Drake Maye is +1500 for AP MVP
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