Do the Patriots have a realistic shot to be the AFC’s top seed? Breaking down the contenders

There are three 8-2 teams in the NFL. All of them reside in the AFC.

New England, Indianapolis and Denver are locked in a three-way tie atop the conference.

While Buffalo (6-3), Kansas City (5-4), Baltimore (4-5), and the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) could very well be in the mix for that spot down the stretch, let’s focus on the three at the top.

Which team has the best chance to be the AFC’s top seed?

How do the Patriots stack up? Given how well they’re playing, the No. 1 seed is definitely on the table.

Here’s the tale of the tape:

Patriots

Head coach: Mike Vrabel

Quarterback: Drake Maye

Points for: 265

Points against: 192

Points per game: 26.5

Points allowed per game: 19.2

Wins of note: Buffalo, Tampa Bay

Toughest remaining opponents: Buffalo, Baltimore

Current win streak: 7

Reason to believe: Head coach/QB

Reason to doubt: Lack of depth

Remaining schedule:

• Thu, Nov 13 —vs NY Jets
• Sun, Nov 23 —at Cincinnati
• Mon, Dec 1 —vs NY Giants
• Sun, Dec 14 —vs Buffalo
• Sun, Dec 21 —at  Baltimore
• Sun, Dec 28 —at NY Jets
• Sun, Jan 4 — vs Miami

My take: The Patriots are in the driver’s seat. Unlike the other two 8-2 teams, their road is paved. If they take care of business, just beating the teams they’re supposed to beat will get them to 13-4. That should be good enough to claim the top seed. Given how they’ve delivered at every crossroad and checkpoint, there’s no reason to suspect they won’t finish the job. They have the Coach of the Year favorite, and the MVP frontrunner. Tough to beat that. Beyond that, there’s something really special going on. You can see it on the field, and feel it in the locker room. At this stage, it’s hard to bet against Vrabel-Maye and a very good, well-coached Patriots football team.

Colts

Head coach: Shane Steichen

Quarterback: Daniel Jones

Points for: 321

Points against: 206

Points per game: 32.1 (tops in NFL)

Points allowed per game: 20.6

Wins of note: Denver, LA Chargers

Toughest remaining opponents: Kansas City, Jacksonville, Seattle, San Francisco

Current win streak: 1

Reason to believe: Jonathan Taylor

Reason to doubt: Remaining schedule

Remaining schedule:

• Sun, Nov 23 — at  Kansas City
• Sun, Nov 30 — vs Houston
• Sun, Dec 7 — at  Jacksonville
• Sun, Dec 14 — at Seattle
• Mon, Dec 22 — vs San Francisco
• Sun, Dec 28 — vs Jacksonville
• Sun, Jan 4 – at Houston

My take: Much like the Patriots, they’ve had to prove themselves to the doubters every week. Having Daniel Jones at quarterback has also given reason for pause. Credit to Steichen for putting Jones in a position to succeed. And Jones’s stats (15 TD passes, 7 picks) are good, not great. But this situation isn’t like the Patriots. The quarterback isn’t the straw that stirs the drink. Running back Jonathan Taylor is having an MVP-type campaign. He’s the lynchpin. The Colts needed every bit of his 244 rushing yards to take down Atlanta Sunday. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last year riding Saquon Barkley. I’m just not sold the Colts can keep up the pace with the AFC leaders given their remaining schedule and their reliance on Taylor.

Broncos

Head coach: Sean Payton

Quarterback: Bo Nix

Points for: 235

Points against: 173

Points per game: 23.5

Points allowed per game: 17.3

Wins of note: Philadelphia

Toughest remaining opponents: Kansas City (twice), Green Bay, Jacksonville, LA Chargers

Current win streak: 7

Reason to believe: Their defense

Reason to doubt: Remaining schedule

Remaining schedule:

• Sun, Nov 16 — vs Kansas City
• Sun, Nov 30 — at  Washington
• Sun, Dec 7 — at  Las Vegas
• Sun, Dec 14 — vs Green Bay
• Sun, Dec 21 — vs Jacksonville
• Thu, Dec 25 — at  Kansas City
• Sun, Jan 4 — vs LA Chargers

My take: They’ve been squeaking by in games of late. Payton’s experience at the helm is certainly a plus. He’s won a Super Bowl and Coach of the Year honors. He’s done a great job bringing Nix along. The Broncos defense? A difference-making unit. That group will keep the Broncos in every game. That said, having two games against the Chiefs and finishing with a KC-Chargers combo will make-or-break them down the stretch. The one advantage that might help their cause, is having four of the last seven games at Mile High. But even with that, all four opponents in those games have winning record and will be fighting to solidify playoff spots.