FOXBOROUGH – The Patriots haven’t had a season like this in decades.
For the first time since 1995, the Patriots are 1-5. Their playoff hopes are all but gone. According to the New York Times 2023 NFL Playoff Simulator, the Patriots have a 5% chance of making the playoffs.
The outlook for this team has gone from cautiously optimistic to fans hoping for a top draft pick. The way the Patriots started this season should also alter the way they approach the Oct. 31 NFL trade deadline.
It doesn’t make sense for the Patriots to trade away future assets for veteran players. Their current collection of draft picks is one of the few things that will help this franchise move forward. That’s why for the first time in the Bill Belichick era, the Patriots should be sellers at the trade deadline.
According to Overthecap.com, the Patriots are currently projected to have the second-most cap space next offseason. That means they’ll likely be players in free agency and thus won’t accumulate any comp picks for the players they lose.
Here’s how the Patriots should approach the upcoming trade deadline.
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Players to keep
Assets: Kyle Dugger, Michael Onwenu, Trent Brown, Hunter Henry, Anfernee Jennings, Myles Bryant,
The Patriots can’t afford to let everyone go. At some point, they do have to retain some of their better, younger players. At this point, two prime examples are Kyle Dugger and Michael Onwenu.
After Devin McCourty retired, Dugger took over as the Patriots defensive playcaller. He is also the team’s best safety. He’s extremely athletic and the type of player who should remain in New England.
Dugger has played the most defensive snaps (94%) this season along with linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley. After losing McCourty a year ago, the Patriots would be foolish to lose or trade Dugger.
The Patriots would also be foolish to trade their two best offensive linemen. This season, the Patriots offensive line has been a disaster. They’re already heading into next offseason with a giant need at right tackle. The last thing they need is to add a right guard and left tackle into that mix.
They should retain Onwenu and Trent Brown.
The writing on the wall says he Patriots had planned to let Onwenu walk. This spring, the Patriots drafted three interior offensive linemen (Jake Andrews, Sidy Sow, and Atonio Mafi). Conventional wisdom says they’ll replace Onwenu with one of them. However, the last time the Patriots let a talented guard walk, it didn’t work out.
The Patriots’ decision to let Joe Thuney go in 2021 flopped. Thuney is an All-Pro guard and a main piece in the Chiefs’ offensive line. He would be the best offensive player in Foxborough right now. Onwenu has more talent and potential than any other offensive linemen on the Patriots roster. They shouldn’t let him go.
Considering the Patriots need to prioritize right tackle this offseason, the easiest solution is to keep Brown. He is currently the Patriots highest graded player and the third-highest-rated tackle by Pro Football Focus.
Hunter Henry is another player that the Patriots should bring back. He’s an above-average tight end, who earned captain honors this season in Foxborough. With Henry and Gesicki both in need of new contracts, it would be difficult to completely revamp their tight-end depth chart.
Myles Bryant and Anfernee Jennings represent low-cost options and they don’t have much trade value. Bryant has done everything for the Patriots defense – played slot cornerback, outside cornerback, safety, and returned punts. He currently leads the team with two forced fumbles. Jennings has been a solid backup to Matthew Judon and is solid against the run.
Players to trade
Assets: Kendrick Bourne, Josh Uche, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Mills, Mike Gesicki
Kendrick Bourne is in the middle of a bounce back season. He’s currently on pace for a career-year with the Patriots. That’s a reason to keep him around.
But after being demoted in 2022, it’s unlikely Bourne will come back to New England after he was disrespected and devalued a year ago when he lost playing time to teammates who weren’t as talented (Nelson Agholor and Tyquan Thornton). The Patriots staff messed up with Bourne last year. Instead of losing him for nothing, the Patriots should trade him before the deadline.
The Patriots receiver finished with 800 yards in 2021 and showed he was one of the best receivers in New England. This year, with Bill O’Brien, Bourne is back. He’s currently leading the Patriots in receiving and is better than any other option on the team. In six games, the receiver has 44 targets. In 16 games last season, he had 48 targets.
Bourne is 28 years old and will likely want to join a contender with a better quarterback situation. A team like the Kansas City Chiefs need a receiver and Bourne would work wonders with quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Bourne is the Patriots’ best asset. He’s amid a career year playing in the NFL’s worst offense. Trading him won’t make the Patriots better, but acquiring a draft pick would be better for the long term.
That’s why the Patriots should also trade Josh Uche. The 25-year-old set a career-high in sacks (11.5) last season despite playing 33% of the Patriots defensive snaps. Uche is a situational pass rusher, who the Patriots haven’t trusted to play against the run. This season, Uche’s playing time is up to 36% of the defensive snaps.
Uche does have value and likely has more value to a team that doesn’t mind a pin-your-ears-back type pass rusher. The Patriots, under Belichick, rarely pay these kinds of players. That’s why it would be a surprise if Uche was back next year. He said this past summer that his agents did have conversations with the Patriots about an extension, but it didn’t materialize into a deal.
Bourne and Uche are the Patriots most realistic trade assets, but not their only ones. The team could also float players like Jalen Mills, Ezekiel Elliott, and Mike Gesicki to contenders looking for added depth.
No one is breaking the bank here, but Mills has already publicly tweeted that he’s been displeased with his playing time. The Patriots have been utilizing Gesicki more in the blocking game, which doesn’t match his skill set. Elliott has been solid, but it would be a surprise to see the veteran return to this mess next year.
Patriots should be on to 2024
Will Belichick’s trade deadline philosophy be different this year?
“Right now, I’m just thinking about Buffalo.”
Unfortunately for him, the game-to-game shouldn’t be the concern for this franchise. The Patriots are no longer in a win-now mode. For the future of the Patriots organization, they should trade veteran players whose contracts will expire at the end of the 2023 season.
At this point, the Patriots don’t have any extra picks in the first five rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. That should change. The Patriots need more blue-chip prospects. They need elite talent. The easiest way to get back on track is by hitting on their draft picks.
Homegrown players such as Vince Wilfork, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Dont’a Hightower, and Chandler Jones helped the Patriots in the latter half of their dynasty. Of course, they also had Tom Brady.
Considering Mac Jones’ struggles, it’s not a bad idea to try and find their next quarterback in the draft. If they’re not going to land a top-two pick, they might as well acquire more capital to draft up.
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