The New England Patriots will try to make it two straight wins when they trek to Western New York for a date with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night.
The Pats (2-2) thumped the Carolina Panthers 42-13 on Sunday behind a huge day from Drake Maye. The second-year QB went 14 for 17 for 203 passing yards and wo touchdowns plus three rushes for 11 yards and a TD too.
But to get above .500, the Pats will need to defeat the Bills at Highmark Stadium — something that has not been done since the 2024 AFC Championship Game.
Here’s a look at the Bills vs Patriots odds and best bets to make at the best Massachusetts sportsbooks.
Patriots vs Bills predictions and best bets
- Patriots +8.5 (-112) at FanDuel
- Over 49 points (-110) at Fanatics
- Drake Maye Over 27.5 Rushing yards (-114) at FanDuel
- Stefon Diggs Over 46.5 Receiving yards (-113) at DraftKings
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
This could be the Diggs revenge game, since he spent four memorable years in Buffalo before playing for the Houston Texans in 2024, then joining Maye at the Pats this offseason.
But the Bills defense has not been particularly stingy, especially against the run. Maye has topped this prop in two of the Pats’ four games, including their lone road game.
The Patriots odds of staying close are good, since they have topped 30 points twice this year and will need to again to stay close against the Bills on Sunday night. Led by NFL MVP favorite Josh Allen, Buffalo is averaging the second-most points per game (33.3) in the NFL this season.
Patriots vs. Bills moneyline odds analysis
Winning in Orchard Park has been really tough for the Patriots in the post-Tom Brady era. New England is 1-5 in its past six games at Highmark Stadium, even though it has covered +8 in four of those six games.
The Patriots need not feel ashamed for struggling in Western New York. The Bills have won 13 straight home games, including their first three at Highmark Stadium this season, and Josh Allen is 45-12 with a 108-40 touchdown-to-interception rate in Orchard Park.
The Patriots last won at Highmark Stadium in 2021, using a run-heavy scheme designed by then-coach Bill Belichick. New England coach Mike Vrabel is, of course, a descendant of Belichick’s and could decide to pull out some stops against the Bills defense, which is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (164.3).
Why the Bills could win as the favorites
Best odds: -420 at FanDuel
The Bills can win if they can run the ball. James Cook was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month due to his 401 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
New England is second best against the run (77.5) yards per game, but it did allow 129 yards on 28 carries against the Panthers on Sunday.
The Bills use the rushing attack, with both Cook and Allen, to take shots down the field. But with Buffalo still working out the kinks with its suspect group of wide receivers, running it with Cook — especially in the red zone — would make it hard for New England to put up points.
Why the Patriots could win as the underdog
Best odds: +360 at BetMGM
If the Pats can limit the huge plays and make some big ones of their own. New England may rank 26th in the NFL in passing yards against per game (241.5), but that was a consequence of its first two games, where it surrendered 640 passing yards and huge chunk plays.
It has done a much better job at limiting huge plays in its past two games against Carolina and Pittsburgh.
The Patriots scored two TDs of 30-plus yards against the Panthers and are 2-0 in games where they score a special-teams touchdown. Those hidden yards could have a huge impact.
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