The Red Sox’ first free agent expenditure of the winter was a big one, as the club committed to starter Ranger Suárez on Wednesday in the form of a five-year, $130 million contract. Suárez, who will earn a $26 million average annual value over the life of his deal, is the third high-dollar addition of the winter for Boston, which also traded for Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras in deals with St. Louis.
With Suárez’s deal added to the payroll, where do things stand? Where are the Sox, in terms of dollars, compared to a year ago? And what does it mean for further moves?
Where do things stand?
The Red Sox are projected to currently carry a CBT (competitive balance tax) payroll right around $269 million, as calculated by @RedSoxPayroll/SoxProspects, with eight free agent deals (including ones done by other teams and absorbed, at least partially, by Boston), six extensions and seven one-year arbitration agreements making up the lion’s share of the total. There are also pre-arbitration players, a small bit of dead money going to Rafael Devers and other things like medical benefits and minor league costs. That payroll number, which would be the biggest in franchise history, not only exceeds the first CBT threshold of $244 million but also the second threshold at $264 million. That was one line in the sand the Red Sox entered the winter wary of crossing (and there’s still a chance further moves get them back under it).
So how did they get here? Last year, Boston’s payroll exceeded the first threshold and was officially calculated at $248,859,139. Let’s round up and call it $249 million. Then, players started coming off the books. Free agents Alex Bregman ($31.7 million), Lucas Giolito ($19.25 million), Liam Hendriks ($5 million), Steven Matz ($3.93 million prorated), Justin Wilson ($3 million), Rob Refsnyder ($1.95 million), as did the deals owed to the departed Devers (the Sox got hit with a $13.6 million CBT number on him before the trade) and Walker Buehler ($22.05 million). All of that freed up just about $100 million in commitments from 2025.
A large chunk of that savings was immediately eaten up by massive AAV jumps for two stars who signed long-term extensions: Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet. Anthony’s CBT hit was less than $500,000 in 2025 but will jump to $16.25 million in 2026 when his eight-year, $130 million contract begins. The Crochet jump is even more staggering, from $3.8 million in 2025 to $28 million in the first year of his six-year, $170 million agreement. Those two deals, while looking very good on paper, account for a $40 million CBT increase heading into 2026. Add in Jordan Hicks’ inflated deal (which goes from a prorated $6.8 million to the full $12 million in 2026) and Aroldis Chapman’s well-deserved jump from $11 million to $13.3 million on his new deal, and the Sox added more than $47.3 million to the CBT number just based on contract details.
The club’s arbitration class (three players) cost a total of $10.7 million. This year, seven players (Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Triston Casas, Romy Gonzalez, Connor Wong and Johan Oviedo) cost a combined $19.36 million, marking an $8.7 million jump in that group. In total, before adding anyone, the Red Sox had accounted for $56 million of the $100 million that had been freed up. Before one move was made, about $205 million in CBT dollars were spoken for.
The Gray trade (in which the Cardinals sent $20 million, lowering the Sox’ CBT hit to $21 million in 2026, the final year left on Gray’s deal) rose that number to $226 million shortly before Thanksgiving. St. Louis then threw in $8 million in the Contreras trade and the Red Sox re-worked his deal so that he’s owed $34.5 million ($17.25 million on an annual basis) over the next two years. That deal put Boston right up against the first threshold, in the $243-244 million range. Wednesday’s Suárez deal puts them about $25 million over the first threshold and $5-6 million over the second.
How does cash factor in?
Club sources with knowledge of the inner workings of Fenway Sports Group, across different regimes, have long-described the budget set by principal owner John Henry as a “moving target.” That characterization fits both in terms of the number he provides his baseball decision-makers, which can fluctuate in short periods of time, and how the budget is actually calculated. There have been years in which the mandate is to budget with the CBT and related penalties in mind. There have been other times with a focus on the cash budget, which is different because unlike CBT numbers, it’s not averaged out on an annual basis. The accounting budget is a third way the club has looked at its finances in recent years.
Boston’s willingness to go into uncharted territory with the CBT number — remember, in November, MassLive reported that the Red Sox contend they suffer a “modest financial loss” if they go over the first threshold, with a reluctance to incur bigger deficits — could be related to the club’s cash spending not yet matching up with the CBT numbers involved. That’s not the team’s fault, either, but simply a reality of how long-term contracts are structured, then accounted for. Many players with CBT numbers on the higher end of Boston’s ledger are making less than that figure in cold hard cash this season, but CBT figures account for the average annual value of entire deals. A deeper look at the actual money changing hands in 2026 reveals a different problem set.
Contract extensions are frequently back-loaded, especially for very young players, and a handful of important Red Sox are making significantly less in cash than their CBT hit would suggest in 2026. (Those numbers flip later in the deals). For example, Anthony’s deal has a CBT hit of $16.25 million next year ($130 million divided equally by eight years) but his actual salary is $2 million. Kristian Campbell ($7.5 million CBT hit) and Ceddanne Rafaela ($6.25 million CBT hit) are also making $2 million each. Brayan Bello’s $9.25 million CBT hit dwarfs his $6 million salary. And even Crochet is earning $24 million as a base salary, which is short of his $28 million CBT hit.
That delta — valued at more than $31 million — is offset by about a quarter of its total by some back-loaded deals including Trevor Story’s (earning $1.67 million more than his CBT hit), Contreras’ ($750,000 more), Patrick Sandoval’s ($3.625 million more) and Garrett Whitlock’s ($2.575 million more). The Red Sox also have cash expenditures due in the form of remaining payments on recent signing bonuses (including on deals handed out in 2025, as is standard) and in deferred money on past deals. For example, a full accounting of the Red Sox’ cash budget would include a $2.5 million deferred payment due to Dustin Pedroia on July 15. Manny Ramírez is also getting $2 million from the club this season. Yes, seriously.
While only the Red Sox have access to their books, it’s clear that the cash outlay, taking into account how the back-loaded deals currently outweigh the front-loaded ones, is going to be lower, perhaps significantly, than the CBT number would suggest. It’s unknown which number the Red Sox are budgeting toward.
The year-to-year details of Suárez’s contract are unknown, too. The Red Sox could have split it evenly at $26 million per year or could have either front-loaded or back-loaded it, depending on preference.
What’s next?
Even after Wednesday’s surprising deal with Suárez, the Red Sox still need to add another bat (likely to play second base or third base) and the club could also use a veteran bullpen arm or two. Considering that the roster has different pockets of excess, expect some salary trimming.
Any team would love to offload players with inflated salaries who do not have clear roles. The Red Sox have their fair share. In Masataka Yoshida ($18 million), Hicks ($12 million) and Sandoval ($9.125 million), the club has three veterans who are clear salary dump candidates. Hicks likely has little to no value after a disastrous stint in Boston after coming over in the Devers trade. Yoshida’s albatross deal would be hard to move. Sandoval, though, is a worthwhile lottery ticket for another club looking for a high-upside starter, as long as he’s healthy. The Red Sox might be able to move him, which wouldn’t hurt much in the big picture because of all of the rotation depth on the roster, and clear his entire salary. Boston might need to attach a prospect to Hicks or Yoshida, or include them in a larger deal, to get them off the books.
There are also valuable trade candidates on the roster, in areas of excess, that could be useful if the club wants to cut a little money (to be clear, that’s an assumption, and not to be taken as fact). Bello ($9.165 million), Duran ($7.7 million) and Rafaela ($6.25 million) are all potential trade chips as the Red Sox look for a corner bat. Anyone the Red Sox bring in would add to the overall total, too.
The only thing that’s clear is that Craig Breslow isn’t done, both when it comes to his roster and figuring out the club’s finances before Opening Day.
