BOSTON — When the Capitals announced on Thursday that Alex Ovechkin had a broken tibia and would miss 4-6 weeks, astute Bruins fans started checking their calendars and doing math.
Ovechkin, who has 868 career goals, needs 26 goals to match Wayne Gretzky’s NHL record of 894 goals. Does the change in the Capitals star’s calendar make it possible for him to tie or break the record in Boston when the Caps visit on April 1?
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Yes.
It obviously depends on when he comes back and how prolific his scoring pace is when he does. But if he returns on the early end of his four weeks, his April 1 trip to Boston would land right inside the likely window. If he takes the full six weeks, he’d have to be scoring at a pretty good clip to pass Gretzky in Boston.
The math:
Before the injury, he had 15 goals in 18 games. That’s .833 goals per game. At that pace, he would have needed 32-33 games to pass Gretzky. That wasn’t a realistic pace in any scenario. Ovechkin’s best single-season scoring rate before that was .792 goals per game when he scored 65 goals in 82 games in 2007-08. He was 23 then. Now he’s a 39-year-old coming off an injury.
If he drops to .75 goals per game, he’d need 36 goals per game. At .70 gpg, it would take 38 or 39 games.
If Ovechkin returns quickly, Bruins fans should hope he doesn’t quite get back to his torrid starting pace:
- If he misses just four weeks, he’d come back Dec. 20. Then 36 games after that would be March 15. April 1 in Boston would be game No. 43.
- Worth noting here too, for Bruins fans, who just want to say they saw him. An early return means he’d be back in time for the Dec. 23 game when Boston hosts the Capitals at TD Garden.
If his recovery takes the full six weeks, Bruins fans should hope for a high scoring rate:
Six weeks would put Ovechkin’s return on Jan. 2. From there 36 games would be March 30 and April 1 at TD Garden would be April 1.
