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Dolphins vs Patriots preview
The Patriots went 2-5 down the stretch last season and opened the 2023 season with a 25-20 home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
New England fell behind early being down 16-0 after the first quarter but fought back to enter halftime only down 16-14. Three second half Eagles field goals put Philly up 25-14 before a late Pats’ TD from Mac Jones to Kendrick Bourne got the Pats close late.
But it wasn’t enough to spark a comeback, nor was it enough to cover the spread that saw New England enter the game as 3.5-4-point underdogs.
Including the playoffs, Miami also ended last season poorly winning just one of their final seven games. But they came out strong in Week 1 in what was one of the most exciting games of the week that saw Miami win 36-34 in Los Angeles against the Chargers.
Tua Tagovailoa went off for 466 yards and three passing touchdowns. 215 of those yards and two of those scores went to WR Tyreek Hill.
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Recent Dolphins vs Patriots history favors Miami and the under
Home teams won last year with Miami winning 20-7 and New England 23-21. But it’s Miami who’s held the edge recently winning four of the past five.
From a totals perspective, five of the past six games would have gone under the current total of 46.5 in this week’s Dolphins vs Patriots odds as past scores have totalled 44, 27, 57, 33, 34 and 32 points.
Dolphins vs Patriots prediction
The game plan seems clear here. For Miami it’s get the ball to Hill and their playmakers and try to quickly pull away from the Patriots and put the game to rest. It’s unlikely the Patriots have the offense to go blow for blow with Miami in a game that resembles anything like Miami’s Week 1 win versus the Chargers.
But if New England’s defense which allowed the 10th fewest PPG (20.4) last season and that contained Jalen Hurts to just 170 passing yards and one score, can do the same this week to Tua and the Fins, they stand a chance. Considering Miami were gashed on the ground for 234 rushing yards last week, the Pats should aim to control the clock and limit Miami’s possessions with a steady dose of the run game.
New England hasn’t started a season 0-2 since 2001 and they could pull the upset and are definitely an appealing teaser option. But Tua is 4-0 versus New England in his career, Miami is 5-0 ATS versus them recently and the Pats have four of their five offensive linemen currently listed as questionable on the injury report. That could cause chaos for Jones if most of his line is missing. We’ll back the Fins as a field goal favorite.
- Dolphins vs Patriots picks: Miami -3 (-110) at DraftKings
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Dolphins vs Patriots props
Here’s a player to target from each team for your Sunday Night Football Dolphins vs Patriots props.
Jaylen Waddle receiving yards
Firstly, all eyes will be on Hill after his Week 1 performance. Against the Patriots last year Tua found Hill for eight catches and 94 yards in the first meeting. Without Tua in the second meeting Hill only caught four passes for 55 yards with Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater under center. Hill’s receiving yards prop this week is set at 84.5 yards, but he’s only gone over that total in two of his past seven games. Hill also hasn’t gone over 100 yards versus New England in any of his last five games.
Jaylen Waddle had 69 yards and a score in the first meeting last year and 52 yards in the second game. Waddle was limited in practice this week with an oblique injury but was back to being a full participant later in the week.
Against the Eagles in Week 1 the Patriots defense held Philly’s top two receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to 79 and 47 yards respectively.
Bill Belichick will surely be game-planning for a way to slow down Hill this week and that could open up some space for Waddle. With the lower receiving yards total of 63.5, we’ll target Waddle in our SNF props.
- SNF Prop Picks: Jaylen Waddle over 63.5 receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings
Rhamondre Stevenson rushing and receiving yards
Last week Austin Ekeler destroyed the Miami defense rushing for 117 yards and a touchdown, while adding 47 yards receiving. That was good for a total of 164 yards.
Surely Belichick will have watched the tape and will be coming up with plenty of ways to get his own duel rushing and receiving threat involved this week. Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for just 25 yards against the Eagles last week but also added 64 yards receiving to total 89 combined yards. That put him over this total in that market last week that was lined around the 80-yard mark as well.
- SNF Prop Picks: Rhamondre Stevenson over 79.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings
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