Just 11 days from today, Red Sox pitchers and catchers will hold their first workout on the back fields of the Fenway South complex in Fort Myers. Feb. 14 will mark the official end of a long, largely inactive offseason for the Red Sox — even if player additions may still trickle in during spring training.
It feels like eons ago that team chairman Tom Werner made the ill-fated promise that the Red Sox would go “full throttle” this winter and we now know, after some careful walking back of those comments last month, that expectations should be lowered significantly. Besides, since the end of last season, the Red Sox have added just one person to the organization who has multiple All-Star appearances under his belt… and that’s pitching coach Andrew Bailey.
It’s pretty clear now that the Red Sox don’t plan on going over — or coming close to — the first CBT (competitive balance tax) threshold of $237 million. And with team president Sam Kennedy acknowledging that he expects payroll to be lower than last year’s, it appears $225 million (the 2023 payroll total) marks the highest end of the self-imposed JHT (John Henry threshold). Earlier this week, MassLive’s Chris Smith ran an analysis that pegged the current payroll at $191 million — and that’s not building in another $10 million for in-season moves and bonuses. That means the Red Sox have about $24-25 million to spend to satisfy their expectation of a lower payroll and $36-37 million of room in the unlikely scenario they reconsider spending up to the CBT.
For those still holding out hope, the chance the Red Sox make a significant addition before Opening Day, albeit unlikely based on their behaviors and conversations, is not zero. That’s just a fact of a free agent market that still has Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Jorge Soler, Mike Clevinger, Whit Merrifield, J.D. Martinez and others still available.
So are the Red Sox done? Are more moves coming? Here are the five scenarios that could play out between now and Opening Day, ranked from most likely to least likely.
1) Improvements are made around the edges
By any metric, the Red Sox have a worse roster than the one that won just 78 games last year. Lucas Giolito, Vaughn Grissom and Tyler O’Neill may turn out to be good additions, but there’s little chance that they replace the overall production of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo and (if he signs elsewhere) Adam Duvall.
There’s a real world in which the Red Sox keep their payroll hovering around $200 million but it feels like there are too many holes on the roster for that to be their reality. The clock is ticking and there are still plenty of quality free agents left on the open market, so it appears mid-tier additions remain possible before the end of camp.
The Red Sox could still use a veteran starter and could still look to add Mike Clevinger, Michael Lorenzen or Hyun-jin Ryu on a short-term deal. Swingman Jakob Junis, with whom they have spoken, makes a lot of sense, too. Other available veterans include Zack Greinke, Rich Hill, Noah Syndergaard and Johnny Cueto.
Boston could also still use a bat, and Duvall continues to make a lot of sense, even if his free agency process wasn’t as close to a resolution as some reports made it seem last week. Garrett Cooper isn’t a terrible fallback option as the Sox could use someone who can play first base against select lefties. C.J. Cron, Donovan Solano, Carlos Santana and Randal Grichuk are among the handful of veterans still available, though it’s unknown if the Red Sox have talked to any of them. Anyone from that group likely won’t cost much.
Adding around the margins, with the rotation and DH spot as clear priority areas, seems to be the most logical path for the Red Sox at this point. That would put their payroll somewhere in the $210-220 million range.
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2) Additions and subtractions are made simultaneously
If finances are as much of a concern to the Red Sox as many in the industry believe they are, the club may plan on shedding salary before adding more pieces. There has been legitimate smoke about a Kenley Jansen trade for months and the Red Sox, after telling free agents that they wanted to move money via trade, have also discussed Masataka Yoshida, as has been widely reported. The guess here is that Yoshida stays put while the Red Sox continue entertaining the idea of trading Jansen, due $16 million next season, or even excellent setup man Chris Martin, who will earn $8.75 million but might fetcher a better haul.
Dealing a bullpen arm could lead to the Red Sox going more aggressively after a starter like Lorenzen or Clevinger; adding one of them could push two-thirds of the Garrett Whitlock/Tanner Houck/Josh Winckowski group to the bullpen and lessen the blow of dealing a veteran. Boston could also supplement its bullpen with a veteran free agent like Ryne Stanek, who they have talked to.
If there’s a mandate for payroll to land at around $200 million (again, possible), chief baseball officer Craig Breslow may need to trade someone like Jansen to clear salary, then reallocate it to better fit the roster in other areas. It’s borderline unthinkable that a big-market club like the Red Sox would ever be in that boat, but absolutely nothing the club has done this winter has proven otherwise.
3) Nothing happens — and the club decides to stand pat
Would it surprise anyone if the Red Sox were actually done making major league moves? How could it? They have been outbid all winter on various players and have not been willing to pay top prices on either the free agent or trade markets. Even as prices come down as Opening Day draws closer, that may remain the case.
Bailey’s comments about feeling comfortable with the internal rotation group seemed sincere, so a further addition — despite seeming necessary to just about everyone outside of the organization — may not be coming. If the Red Sox are truly as comfortable with their group of young players as they say they are, they could move forward with the current group (and a payroll hovering around that $200 million mark).
4) A sizable addition is made without breaking the bank
There is a sweet spot that would allow the Red Sox to get much better, for both 2024 and future years, while keeping their payroll in the range where they want it. It’s the white whale pursuit they’ve been working on for years: adding a young, cheap, controllable starting pitcher via trade. It’ll come at a painful cost, but in terms of prospects, not cash.
It’s abundantly clear by now that Breslow doesn’t want to deal any of the organization’s three top prospects (Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel), which is likely a non-starter for teams with starters available. So far, the Sox clearly haven’t been able to match up on a package that doesn’t involve their top three. Maybe that will change now that the trade market is moving a bit with Corbin Burnes (a one-year rental who wasn’t a great fit for the building Red Sox) on his way to Baltimore.
A starter from Miami (Jesús Luzardo? Edward Cabrera?) or Seattle (Bryan Woo? Bryce Miller?) would clearly fit what the Sox are looking for but prices are sky-high and those teams have been hesitant to seriously talk so far this winter (and don’t have to be in a rush). Chicago’s Dylan Cease is only under control for two more years, which might not fit Breslow’s contention timeline. There’s a reason controllable starters are so expensive… but the Red Sox really need to land one at some point. That’s a mission that will continue into the summer if Breslow can’t pull the trigger before the end of March.
5) Ownership reverses course and a big splash is made
The least likely scenario — one in which the Red Sox actually go big in free agency — is only in play because some top free agents remain available. It’s not a particularly likely path but can’t be ruled out until the big-ticket players who fit the Red Sox (Montgomery, Snell and Soler) are off the market.
Snell has always seemed like an imperfect fit for the Red Sox and would be of little interest to the club if he — as some executives think he might — sign a short-term, high average annual deal with an opt out after 2024. Montgomery, then, is the much better fit.
It has been well-documented that Montgomery has spent the offseason in Boston and the former Yankee checks virtually every box for the Red Sox. The fact the Rangers haven’t been able to re-sign him yet may signal that a reunion with Texas is unlikely after all. If the Red Sox find themselves bidding against themselves, as they did with J.D. Martinez in 2018, they may be forced to get out of their (self-imposed) comfort zone and go after Montgomery. They were willing to extend, to an unknown extent, for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and may willing to, in special circumstances for Montgomery.
Soler’s market may be limited, too. The Blue Jays likely aren’t a great fit for him anymore after poaching Turner from the Red Sox and Arizona just filled its DH spot with Joc Pederson. The Mets loom as a possibility for Soler and a reunion with Miami can’t be discounted. But with Turner gone, there is a right-handed void in the middle of Boston’s lineup and Soler’s swing would play at Fenway.
Again, a big-ticket free agent addition is unlikely at best. It’s possible a trade involving someone like Jansen could increase Boston’s chances. All signs continue to point to more marginal moves, even if a good-sized splash would make sense at this stage.
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Dan Duquette was the man responsible for bringing Jimy Williams to Boston as the manager of the Red Sox in 1997 — and ultimately firing him in 2001. Things were not always rosy between the two men, who clashed publicly throughout Williams’ Red Sox tenure, but they did have some successful times together. In Williams’ five seasons, the Red Sox made the postseason twice; Williams himself was named American League Manager of the Year in 1999.
Reflecting this week on Williams, who died last Friday at 80, Duquette remembered a baseball lifer who passionately taught the game he loved and got the most out of his players during a coaching and managerial career that lasted decades.
“Jimy was the consummate baseball man and an excellent teacher,” Duquette said by phone Thursday. “He was a good family man. He was a good husband to Peggy and a good father to his boys, Brady and Shawn, who he included in the operation in his day-to-day work. He had some good years with the Red Sox.
“He was excellent in preparing a team to start the season… He was a taskmaster preparing a team. He was a very good third base coach. He was a lifelong baseball man. And he’ll be remembered fondly.”
Duquette, who took over as Red Sox general manager in 1994, embarked on his second managerial search in the fall of 1996 after firing Kevin Kennedy. He considered experienced candidates like Grady Little and future Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog but ultimately chose Williams, who came with a rousing recommendation from Braves executive John Schuerholz. From 1991 to 1996, Williams served as Bobby Cox’s third base coach in Atlanta, re-establishing himself after a four-year tenure as Toronto’s manager from 1986 to 1989.
“He had worked his way up, done all the jobs and was a bonafide major league manager,” Duquette said.
Throughout his time in Boston, Williams wasn’t afraid to clash with players, including stars. A famous incident happened in Aug. 1999, when Williams scratched ace Pedro Martinez from a start after he arrived later than usual to Fenway Park. Williams’ reputation as a disciplinarian, Duquette said, elevated the clubhouses he managed.
“He knew what had to happen for big league players to be successful,” Duquette said. “He gave them a road map and he worked with them.
“He had a certain style as a manager and he was true to his style. He was authentic. I believe the players understood that and respected it.”
Duquette, who hasn’t worked for a team since leaving the Orioles in Oct. 2018, saw Williams repeatedly during spring training during his time with Baltimore. Williams often was around the Rays club in Port Charlotte; his son, Brady, has been a coach at various levels in that organization since 2006 and is now Kevin Cash’s third base coach. Duquette said he has followed the careers of both Brady and Shawn, who is now the manager of the Phillies’ Rookie-level Florida Complex League team after three years at Double-A.
“Jimy helped re-establish a winning culture and standards that held players accountable at the big league level,” Duquette said. “A good team needs that leadership to accomplish their goals.”
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EXTRA INNINGS
1) Many in the Red Sox organization, including (chiefly) manager Alex Cora, spent months, if not years, complaining that the schedule-makers were to blame for their poor start in 2019. After two exhibition games against the Cubs in Arizona, the Red Sox went 3-8 on an 11-game opening trip to Seattle, Oakland and Arizona.
Five years later, they’ll start the season similarly. Two exhibition games in Texas will serve as an appetizer for a 10-game, 11-day swing against the Mariners, Athletics and Angels. Knowing the challenges they faced in 2019, it’s on the Red Sox to prepare themselves better. To that, end, the Red Sox purposefully scheduled two night games (March 21 and March 23) in their final four days in Florida and will play another in Texas.
2) The departure of Justin Turner has led to some speculation that the Red Sox could look to reunite with J.D. Martinez, though recent conversations have revealed a “been there, done that” attitude in regards to him. Martinez’s unique methods weren’t universally loved within the walls of Boston’s clubhouse, especially in contrast to Turner’s team-first way of leading the group.
3) There’s a world in which the Yankees sign Ryan Brasier and Red Sox fans are mad about it, which would truly complete the circle of angst in relation to one of the most unique character arcs of any player in recent Red Sox history.
