FOXBOROUGH – The Patriots shocked the NFL last weekend when they upset the Buffalo Bills.
Can they do it again this weekend?
On Sunday, the Patriots will take on the Miami Dolphins inside Hard Rock Stadium, a place that hasn’t been kind to Bill Belichick’s teams. The Patriots are 2-8 against the Dolphins in their last 10 trips to Miami. In the past 10 matchups, the Patriots are 3-7 against their divisional opponent.
Last year, when the Patriots beat the Dolphins, and backup quarterbacks Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater, it snapped a four-game losing streak to Miami.
Now, the 2-5 Patriots will be looking to shock the league again against this talented 5-2 Miami team. At this point, Belichick’s squad doesn’t have much to lose. After starting 1-5, most wrote the Patriots obituary on this 2023 season. The only way out of this deep hole is to play a better blend of football and upset better teams such as the one they’ll face this weekend in Week 8.
Here are five things to watch when the Patriots take on the Miami Dolphins:
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Belichick vs. Tua
Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 against Bill Belichick. In those games, the Dolphins quarterback has completed 68.8% of his passes for 975 yards to go with four touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s also added three rushing touchdowns against the Patriots. Belichick’s defenses haven’t been bad against Tagovailoa.
The quarterback has never thrown for 300 yards against the Patriots. He’s never thrown for more than one touchdown against New England, either. That being said, the Patriots still haven’t been able to beat the Dolphins when he starts a game. Will this finally be the game where Belichick lands a much-needed win over Tagovailoa?
Mac Jones
If you can believe it, Mac Jones has better numbers against the Dolphins than Tagovailoa does against the Patriots. In five games, Jones has completed 69.5% of his passes for 1,190 yards to go with six touchdowns and three interceptions.
Of course, the big difference here is the record. Jones is 1-4 against the Dolphins in his career. His only win came last season when Miami started Bridgewater and finished that game with Thompson at quarterback. The key for Jones is to limit turnovers. The Patriots are 0-4 when they lose the turnover battle this season. They won the turnover battle against Buffalo last week and the turnover margin against the New York Jets was zero. Those are their only two wins.
Starting fast
The Patriots know what they do well. They have the ability to run the ball efficiently and their best passing game is predicated on short, quick throws. The best thing that could happen to them on Sunday is that they get out to an early lead. That’s one of the biggest keys to this matchup.
The Patriots have played with an early lead twice this season and those are their only two wins of the season against the Jets and Bills. Playing with the lead allows the Patriots to establish the run and doesn’t force Jones to make big pass plays that don’t necessarily suit his skill set. It’s tough to play from behind and as we’ve seen this season, it’s easier on the Patriots offense to play ahead.
Offensive line
Last weekend’s win was the best game we’ve seen from Jones in the NFL. It’s not a coincidence that it also happened to be one of the best performances from the Patriots offensive line this season. A big reason for that was the coaching staff moved starting right guard Michael Onwenu out to right tackle. Onwenu didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit.
That was big for the Patriots as it marked the first time they received competent play at right tackle. The team started with Calvin Anderson at right tackle before starting Vederian Lowe. Both players struggled a ton. A key on Sunday is for the Patriots to keep Jones upright. In the team’s loss to Miami in Week 2, Jones was sacked a season-high four times.
Injuries
In the NFL, it’s a war of attrition. Last week, the Patriots had a season-high 20 players on their injury report, but still got it together to beat the Dolphins. This week, their opponent is dealing with injuries to big-time players. On Wednesday, the Dolphins were missing receiver Tyreek Hill (hip) and running back Raheem Mostert (ankle) from practice. If either can’t play or are limited, it would be a big blow for Miami and would also help the Patriots.
Both players returned on Thursday, but it’ll be interesting to see if they’re fully healthy. Hill entered this week leading the NFL in receiving yards (902) and receiving touchdowns (seven). He’s also third in the NFL in receptions (53). Mostert is currently tied with Christian McCaffrey for the league lead in touchdowns (11).
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
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