FOXBOROUGH – It’s not going to get any easier this time.
When the Patriots took on the Miami Dolphins in Week 5, it was a matchup Jerod Mayo’s team should’ve won. All they needed to do was outscore an offense led by backup quarterback Tyler ‘Snoop’ Huntley, who was signed off the Baltimore Ravens practice squad.
However, that turned out to be a disappointing and embarrassing 15-10 loss. It also marked the last time Jacoby Brissett started for the Patriots at quarterback. Drake Maye took over the next week, and the offense has been much better.
That’ll need to continue on Sunday when the Patriots travel to Miami to take on a Dolphins team, which has starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup.
Since Maye took over, the Patriots are averaging 20 points per game. They’ll likely have to be better than their average. Since Tagovailoa came back, after a concussion, the Dolphins are averaging 27.8 points per game.
Here are five things to watch when the Patriots take on the Dolphins:
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Drake Maye, turnovers
Maye gives the Patriots a lot of reason for hope. Even when the team looks like they’re about to be blown out, there always seems to be a chance with the rookie quarterback. That was seen last week in their loss against the Los Angeles Rams. However, Maye and the offense need to cut down on the turnovers. The offense has six turnovers in the last three games. That’s been an issue since the Patriots defense has forced one turnover in that span.
Maye threw an interception and was strip-sacked against the Rams. That can’t happen on Sunday. This season, the Dolphins have nine takeaways. That’s tied for the 25 fewest in the NFL.
Red Zone
This season, the Patriots have scored touchdowns on 46.9% of their red zone opportunities. That’s 29th in the NFL. It’s been even worse over the last three weeks, which has seen the offense score touchdowns in 41.7% of their red zone trips. Over the last two weeks, the Patriots are 3-of-10, covering just 30% of their red zone trips to touchdowns. In the previous four games, they were 8-of-9.
If the Patriots are going to go into Miami and upset the Dolphins, they have to score touchdowns. They can’t settle for field goals on the road – not against a good offense.
Run game
The Patriots need to bring a balanced offense to Miami. This season, their run game has been inconsistent due to the blocking up front. The Patriots are averaging 115.3 rushing yards per game. That ranks them 21st in the NFL. The Dolphins have one of the best run defenses in the league. They rank tenth in the NFL, allowing 109 rushing yards per game.
A key for the Patriots is to get Rhamondre Stevenson going. Although the Patriots struggled to score points the last time they faced the Dolphins, they didn’t struggle to run the ball. That game saw the Patriots run for 151 yards and average a franchise-record 7.9 yards per rush. It’d be helpful if that happened again.
Secondary
Last weekend was not a good representation of the Patriots secondary. Rams receivers Puka Nacua (123 yards, touchdown) and Cooper Kupp (106 yards, two touchdowns) went off. In that game, the Patriots coaching staff opted to not have Christian Gonzalez follow one of the Rams top receivers and instead, had him play one side of the field. That made it easier for the Rams to dial up plays to get Nacua and Kupp open away from the Patriots best cornerback.
That can’t happen on Sunday. Gonzalez must cover Tyreek Hill. The second-year cornerback has played well against Hill in the past. This season, he held the receiver to two catches on four targets for 38 yards.
Pass rush
In Chicago, the Patriots pass rush looked elite, sacking Caleb Williams nine times. Last week, the group went backward and never sacked Matthew Stafford. It would be nice if the defense could rectify the inconsistency up front. The group saw the return of Christian Barmore and the debut of Yannick Ngakoue last weekend. The hope is as those two get more acclimated, the pass rush will improve.
Tagovailoa has been sacked seven times in the last four games. He’s the type of quarterback the Patriots don’t want to let get out of the pocket or extend plays. It would be helpful if their pass rush showed up.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Patriots 20
