FOXBOROUGH – When was the last time the Patriots had a matchup this big?
Over the last five seasons, it’s been slim pickings for the Patriots on a national stage. The team had one playoff game, which was a blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills at the end of the 2021 season.
Even then, no one really thought the Patriots would make a postseason run.
This time, however, it’s different.
The 11-2 Patriots have a chance to win the AFC East if they beat the Bills on Sunday. This matchup is one of the most important games in recent franchise history. A win for Mike Vrabel’s team means there’s a new king in the division and would show that the Patriots are for real.
A win on Sunday also secures a playoff spot for the Patriots and gives them a legitimate chance to secure a top seed in the playoffs. Here are five things to watch in the Patriots’ big matchup:
Drake Maye vs. Josh Allen
Drake Maye has long been compared to Josh Allen. However, it looks like the second-year quarterback may have already caught up to his division rival. Maye ranks first in the NFL` in completion percentage (71.5), second in passing yards (3,412), second in passer rating (111.9), and fourth in passing touchdowns (23).
Allen is tied for second in completion percentage (70.1), eighth in passing yards (3,085), sixth in passer rating (102.9), and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (22). Allen does have a big advantage on the ground with 12 rushing touchdowns compared to two for Maye.
This game features the reigning MVP (Allen) vs. someone who could win MVP (Maye) this season. All eyes will be on the quarterback matchup.
Run defense
The Bills are a handful on the ground. They’ll come to Gillette Stadium ranked No. 1 in the NFL in rushing offense, leading the way in yards per game (157.8) and yards per carry (5.06). Their efficiency on the ground is one reason why they also lead the NFL in average time of possession (33:04).
Bills running back James Cook is currently ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,308). He also has seven rushing touchdowns and an NFL-leading 249 carries. Of course, with Buffalo, Allen is also a factor. The big quarterback has 487 rushing yards and is third in the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns. The Patriots need to stop the Bills on the ground.
Red Zone
If the Patriots are going to beat the Bills again, they need to be better in the red zone. This season, they rank 24th in red zone offense, scoring touchdowns 51% of the time. They’re even worse inside the 10-yard line, ranked 30th in the NFL in goal-to-goal offense, scoring 62% of the time. That won’t cut it against Buffalo.
The Bills rank ninth in the NFL in red zone offense (61.7%) and are fifth in the NFL when faced with a first-and-goal, scoring 87.5% of the time. Buffalo heads into this matchup ranked fifth in the NFL in scoring (28.7), and they take advantage of their scoring opportunities. The Patriots need to do the same.
Run offense
The Bills enter this matchup with one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Buffalo ranks second in the league in passing defense, allowing 171.8 yards per game. Their interception rate (2.76%) ranks tied for eighth, and their sack per pass attempt rate (7.73) is 13th. The weakness in this defense comes with the run defense.
The Bills ranked 28th in the NFL in rush yards allowed per game (135.2). They’re 29th in the league in yards allowed per carry (5.10). The Patriots need to win the time of possession battle on Sunday. It would be helpful if they could establish the run. This could be a big game for TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Turnover battle
When two good teams face off, the biggest thing to watch is the turnover battle. The Patriots and Bills have similar turnover differential numbers this season, with New England at +1 and Buffalo at -1.
In Week 5, the Patriots’ defense finished with three turnovers compared to the Bills’ one takeaway. That was enough to help the Patriots squeak by Buffalo for the upset. This week, it would help if the team could do that again.
The Patriots have forced three turnovers in the last five games. Buffalo has eight turnovers in the same span. The winner of the turnover battle could very well become the winner on Sunday.
Prediction: Patriots 30, Bills 27
