FOXBOROUGH – A lot of questions are about to be answered about the Patriots.
This season saw Mike Vrabel’s team surprise everyone by finishing with a 14-3 record and winning the AFC East. They enter the playoffs tied for the NFL’s best record and as the No. 2 seed in the conference.
Although they are favored in this wild-card matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, questions persist about the Patriots’ strength of schedule – or lack thereof.
The Patriots finished the season with the lowest strength of schedule in the NFL (.391). That’s led to questions about the validity of their success this season. The best way to prove doubters wrong is to win.
On Sunday night, the Patriots will be faced with one of their toughest challenges of the year. The Chargers are a good team with a star quarterback and outstanding defense. Vrabel’s team has a chance to make a statement and move on to the AFC’s divisional round.
Here are five things to watch on Sunday:
Playing with a lead
The Chargers have a potent offense led by a very good quarterback in Justin Herbert. They also have the best defense the Patriots will have faced this season. This won’t be an easy matchup. That’s why the Patriots need to start fast on Sunday night.
The Chargers are second in the NFL in average time of possession, trailing only Buffalo. They know how to grind out a win with their run game. You also don’t want to fall behind due to their potent pass rush, which is among the best in the NFL. A big key for the Patriots is to start fast, take the lead, and hold onto it.
Turnover battle
The Chargers’ defense is very tough. The unit is allowing the fifth fewest yards per game. They have the fifth-ranked pass defense and eighth-ranked run defense. They also excel at getting takeaways. Los Angeles is second in the NFL in interception rate (3.76%).
Opposing quarterbacks have a 75.0 passer rating when throwing against this defense. That’s the lowest mark in the NFL. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed 16 touchdown passes compared to 19 interceptions this season. The Chargers have the seventh most total turnovers this season with 23. However, they also have 21 giveaways.
The Patriots’ defense needs to add to that total. Maye needs to play a clean game.
Protecting Drake Maye
The Chargers’ defense is dangerous in part because of their ability to force turnovers and to get to the quarterback. This season, Los Angeles is sacking opposing quarterbacks on 8.91% of their drop-backs. That’s the sixth-best sack rate in the NFL. For the Patriots, another key this weekend is to protect Maye.
The Patriots’ locker room dealt with an illness this week that hit starting right tackle Morgan Moses and starting center Garrett Bradbury. Left guard Jared Wilson was also limited for most of the week due to a concussion. Whoever plays on Sunday will need to be at their best against an impressive pass rush that includes Tuli Tuipulotu (13 sacks), Odafe Oweh (7.5 sacks), Justin Eboigbe (6 sacks), and Khalil Mack (5.5 sacks).
Chargers tackle situation
The Chargers have allowed a sack on 10.54% of their drop-backs this season. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. A big reason for that is due to Los Angeles being without both starting tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.
The talent on this offense resides in its passing game with Herbert and his receivers, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston. However, the Patriots should be able to get to the quarterback due to his injured offensive line. It’s a matchup that Vrabel’s team needs to win. The defense will get back leading pass rusher Harold Landry and linebacker Robert Spillane.
Patriots run game
The Patriots ended the season with one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL. In the final four games, the offense ran for 723 yards. That was the second most in the league in that span. Having a potent rush game always helps in the playoffs. It’ll be big for the Patriots to establish the run because it’ll open up things for Maye.
It won’t be easy. The Chargers have the eighth-best run defense in the NFL. The Patriots will get in trouble if they become too one-dimensional, which is why it’s a good sign that Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are peaking at the right time.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 20
