The Red Sox had eight players make their major league debuts in 2023.
Masataka Yoshida, Enmanuel Valdez, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, David Hamilton, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Joe Jacques all received their first taste of big league life.
Which Red Sox prospects might take the leap in 2024? Below are 10 strong candidates, including six pitchers and four positional players.
1. Bryan Mata, RHP: The 24-year-old righty will enter 2024 in a challenging spot because he’s out of minor league options. He must make Boston’s Opening Day roster (barring an IL stint) or else be placed on waivers and/or traded.
The Red Sox plan to use him as a reliever and see how he does in that role.
Boston needs more high-end velo in the bullpen. Mata, who has struggled in the Arizona Fall League, has the ability to provide that. He topped out at 98.2 mph with his sinker and averaged 97.1 mph with his 15 four-seam fastballs Sept. 17 for Triple-A Worcester vs. Syracuse after returning from a four-month IL stint (right shoulder inflammation). He topped out at 97.6 mph Sept. 20 at Lehigh Valley. He has reached 100 mph post-Tommy John surgery.
Injuries have limited him since the Red Sox added him to the 40-man roster in November 2020. Baseball America ranked Mata the Red Sox’s No. 1 pitching prospect entering 2023. Eight months later, BA no longer has him ranked among Boston’s top 30 prospects, a list that includes nine pitchers.
He needs to show something during spring training or else his time with the Red Sox might end. If he is placed on waivers, there’s a chance he would clear and be outrighted to Worcester.
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2. Shane Drohan, LHP: The Red Sox likely will add Drohan to their 40-man roster in November to prevent him from being available in the Rule 5 Draft. He is expected to begin 2024 at Worcester after he struggled to throw strikes there following a promotion from Double-A Portland in May. He provides starting pitching depth and a possible left-handed reliever option for manager Alex Cora.
Drohan, who Baseball America ranks Boston’s No. 3 pitching prospect, dominated in six starts to begin the 2023 season for Portland. He went 5-0 with a 1.32 ERA (34 innings, five runs) and averaged 2.4 walks and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. But he then posted a 6.47 ERA in 21 outings (19 starts) for Worcester and averaged 6.4 walks per nine innings (63 walks in 89 innings).
Lefties Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy both made their major league debuts in 2023 after being added to the 40-man roster last November. Walter and Murphy struggled throwing strikes in Worcester’s starting rotation and Boston used them as multi-inning relievers. The Red Sox might take the same route with Drohan, especially if his command issues persist.
The lefty has a fastball that reaches the mid-90s in addition to a plus changeup. He also improved the feel for his cutter as the season progressed.
Boston is lacking in left-handed reliever depth. Brennan Bernardino (3.20 ERA) is the only left-handed reliever on Boston’s 40-man roster to finish with an ERA under 4.90. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow likely will add to this area of the bullpen in the offseason but Drohan gives him another internal option.
3. Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP: The Red Sox are expected to add the 21-year-old righty from Venezuela to their 40-man roster in November to prevent him from being available in the Rule 5 Draft in December. He throws a fastball that ranges from 94-99, a changeup, curveball and cutter. He posted a 2.42 ERA and held opponents to a .162 batting average after a promotion to Portland on July 14.
But he needs to improve his command before he’s ready to make a real impact as a big league starter. He averaged 5.7 walks per nine innings in 25 starts between High-A Greenville and Portland.
That said, the Red Sox don’t have much starting pitching depth in the upper levels of the minors right now, something Breslow obviously will try to fix this offseason. Gonzalez will be a spot starter/depth option whether he’s completely ready or not simply because he’ll be an upper-level pitcher on the 40-man roster.
Boston also could use more relievers with his type of velo and strikeout rate. He averaged 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings this past season. Perhaps he helps as a reliever later in the season. His command issues could ultimately send him to the bullpen.
4. Nick Yorke, 2B: We’ll see if Breslow acquires a second baseman this offseason. But the position is up for grabs right now with Enmanuel Valdez, Ceddanne Rafaela, Luis Urías, Pablo Reyes and David Hamilton as candidates on the 40-man roster.
Yorke likely will start the season at Worcester. But he can put his name into that mix quickly if he plays well.
The 2020 first round draft pick spent the entire 2023 season at Portland where he was decent. He slashed .268/.350/.435/.785 with 13 homers, 25 doubles, three triples, 74 runs, 61 RBIs, 51 walks, 122 strikeouts and 18 steals in 110 games.
He had an incredible first season in pro ball, slashing .325/.412/.516/.928 with a 15.6% strikeout percentage and 11.8% walk percentage. He has continued to maintain about the same walk percentage (10.1% in 2023) but his strikeout rate (24.1% in 2023) has increased the past two years.
5. Marcelo Mayer, SS: Diamondbacks’ Jordan Lawlar got drafted two spots behind Mayer and beat the Red Sox prospect to the big leagues. Lawlar, who also was a high school shortstop, made his major league debut in September. Arizona picked him sixth overall in 2021 after Boston selected Mayer fourth overall.
Mayer, who turns 21 in December, likely will begin 2023 back at Double-A Portland after struggling there following a promotion from High-A Greenville on May 30. But he has the talent to make it to the big leagues at some point in 2024.
Mayer’s 2023 season ended Aug. 2 because of a shoulder injury. He recently told WEEI’s Rob Bradford that his shoulder injury happened May 7 when he fell rounding second base after he hit a ball in the gap.
Boston’s No. 1 prospect batted .337 with a .414 on-base percentage, .582 slugging percentage, four homers, 10 doubles, one triple and 23 RBIs in 23 games for Greenville before the injury. He took a week off, then his stats dropped. He slashed only .189/.254/.355/.609 in 190 plate appearances for Portland.
Mayer was more than three and a half years younger than the average player in the Eastern League, likely contributing to some of his struggles with Portland. But Lawlar dominated at Double A and Triple A despite facing an even greater age gap. So hopefully for the Red Sox’s sake, Mayer’s struggles at Portland had to do more with his ailing shoulder.
It might be wise to give Mayer some reps at second base during spring training. As mentioned above, the second base position is a question mark right now heading into what should be an active offseason for Breslow.
Baseball America grades Mayer’s arm and fielding both 60 (plus) on the 20-80 grading scale. He’s a slick defender at shortstop who played a little third base when Trevor Story rehabbed in Portland this past summer. He should have no problem playing second if asked to do it.
Story has lacked durability since signing with Boston, playing just 94 games in 2022 and 43 games in 2023. And so Mayer, if he’s playing well, also has a chance to make his major league debut if Story lands on the IL.
Lawlar isn’t the only first round shortstop from the 2021 class to already make his MLB debut. Matt McLain, a college pick who went 17th overall, played both shortstop and second base this season for the Reds. He slashed .290/.357/.507/.864 with 16 homers, 23 doubles and four triples in 89 games (403 plate appearances.
6. Luis Guerrero, RHP: The 23-year-old righty went from a 17th round draft pick in 2021 to a All-Star Futures game selection in 2023.
He has reached 100 mph with his fastball while his splitter has the potential to be a plus offering. He held the opposition to a .157 batting average in 54 ⅓ innings between Portland and Worcester this past season. He has held opponents to a .167 batting average in 93 ⅓ innings overall in the minors.
As mentioned above, the Red Sox are in need of some power relievers. Guerrero fits that description. The one issue is command. In addition to 11.3% strikeouts per nine innings, he averaged 6.1 walks per nine innings. SoxProspects.com noted during the season that he “has not shown the same quality splitter in outings scouted in 2023. Has struggled to land in the zone and throw competitive enough pitches to elicit swings against it.”
The command must improve for him to have success in the majors but his pure stuff has a chance to get him to Boston in 2024.
7. Kyle Teel, C: The Red Sox drafted the 21-year-old catcher in July and he made it to Double A by Sept. 5. He went 33-for-91 (.363) with a .482 on-base percentage in 26 games combined between the FCL (three games), High-A Greenville (14 games) and Portland (nine games).
Boston likely will sign a depth catcher with major league experience to a minor league deal this offseason just in case of an in-season injury to Connor Wong or Reese McGuire. The Sox did that with Jorge Alfaro last offseason and included opt-out clauses in his contract.
That said, Teel might be the best No. 3 catcher option entering the year — even if Boston does add someone with big league experience at Worcester — because he’s already so advanced defensively.
Defense is the No. 1 priority for any catcher being promoted to the major leagues as an injury replacement. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America grade his arm 60 (plus) and his fielding 50 (major league average) on the 20-80 grading scale.
Chris Clegg, an evaluator for SoxProspects.com, posted a video of Teel on Sept. 1 throwing out a runner on a low-and-away pitch. Clegg wrote, “Teel posted a 1.9 pop time on this and had the guy out by 2 steps. No catcher should be able to post those pop times on a pitch low and away in the dirt. Excellent framer, excellent pop times. Teel is gonna be a major league catcher for a long time.”
Caleb Hamilton, a catcher who appeared in 42 games for Worcester and four games for Boston in 2023, already has elected free agency. Catcher Ronaldo Hernández, who played in 99 games for Worcester this past summer, has the ability to become a minor league free agent in November. Teel, meanwhile, is much better defensively than other internal options such as Nathan Hickey and Stephen Scott.
Teel should eventually become the No. 1 catcher with Wong moving into more of a backup role. It might happen at some point during the second half of 2024. Or it might happen in 2025. Either way, Teel is an obvious candidate to help the big league team in 2024 if Wong or McGuire lands on the IL.
8. Grant Gambrell, RHP: Then-chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom described the right-handed Gambrell as having “a power arsenal” when Boston acquired him as one of the players to be named later for Andrew Benintendi in June 2021.
But Gambrell missed the final month and a half of 2021 and the entire 2022 season because of a benign tumor in his calcaneus, the heel bone. He underwent five surgeries to remove it.
The 25-year-old impressed in his return to the mound in 2023, posting a 3.63 ERA and .236 opponent batting average in 23 starts, including 15 starts for Portland. He finished the season at Worcester, allowing two runs in 10 ⅔ innings (1.69 ERA) over two starts.
He’s Rule 5 eligible this offseason. The Red Sox probably will add him to their 40-man roster in November. He’s expected to begin the season in Worcester’s starting rotation but he has the potential to fill several different roles, including as a spot starter, bulk reliever or even a Josh Winckowski-type of bullpen role, as the 2024 season progresses.
His sinker was up to 93.3 mph in his two starts for Worcester. The velo could tick up in shorter spurts out of the bullpen.
9. Roman Anthony, OF: The 19-year-old made it to Double A less than 14 months after Boston drafted him 79th overall in 2022. He became the first Red Sox teenage prospect to reach Double A since Xander Bogaerts in 2012. So it wouldn’t be shocking if he made his major league debut during the second half of 2024.
“That’s a freak of an athlete right there,” prospect Blaze Jordan said about Anthony in July.
The left-handed batter experienced some swing-and-miss issues against left-handed pitching at Greenville where his strikeout percentage increased. But he also showed elite plate discipline (17.5% walk percentage) and power (45 extra-base hits) in 106 games combined between Low-A Salem, Greenville and Portland.
“It’s pretty crazy watching him hit because it seems like every time he’s in the box he barrels up something or he walks,” Jordan said. “I can see him getting to the show pretty soon.”
Baseball America ranks Anthony No. 19 on its Top 100 list. He has the chance to be one of those special players who has the rare talent and plate maturity to handle the big leagues at 19-20 years old.
10. Luis Perales: Everything written above about Wikelman Gonzalez also is applicable for Perales, a 20-year-old righty from Venezuela. Boston also must select Perales onto the 40-man roster in November to prevent him from being available in the Rule 5 Draft.
Like Gonzalez, he has both big-time velo and command issues. Baseball America ranks his fastball — which reaches 98 mph — the best fastball in Boston’s system. And he struck out 29.3% of the batters he faced in ‘23. But he also averaged 5.0 walks per nine innings (89 ⅔ innings, 50 walks).
He hasn’t pitched beyond High A where he posted a 4.95 ERA in eight starts during the second half. In an ideal world, depth issues won’t create a situation where the Red Sox are forced to promote him as a spot starter or bulk reliever too soon. But he’ll represent depth on a 40-man roster with thin starting depth. He also potentially could be an option as a power reliever in September if he takes a big leap during the first few months of 2024.
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